Draft Theory - Mismatch at the Line of Scrimmage
 

I was playing with draft data in response to posts in Ken's hypothetical query thread and noted that BB drafts three positions consistently, DL, TE, and RB/FB http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-...1&postcount=40. My analysis looks at these three as "mismatch" positions; DL by forcing double-teams, TE & RB/FB by redirecting LBs, lead blocking, or freeing up an OL to shift power to the point of attack by blocking on the backside. The only non-mismatch position drafted in round one is Mankins, and if you credited him with being a OT then you also had a potential mismatch position.

First question, how does a player at a specific position create a mismatch? My thoughts:
DL - occupy two or more blockers.
TE - challenge LB and S in the passing game, serving as an extra blocker for run or pass.
RB/FB - challenge LB and S in the passing game, serving as an extra blocker for run or pass.
OT - blocking the edge rusher one-on-one to free up an interior OL for blitz pick-up and put the TE/RB into the pattern.
OC/OG - blocking DL one-on-one.
OLB - occupy two or more blockers.
ILB - fill rush lanes quickly, direct the defense.
QB - quick release, good field vision, good decisions.
WR - force double-teams in the secondary, block LB and S in the run game.
S - playing up in the box, or having the speed to come up quickly and fill rush lanes, directing the secondary.
CB - handle #1 WRs in man, filling rush lanes quickly.

BB drafts DL in rounds 1 & 2 29% of the time, he drafts WRs 21% and OT 21% http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-...9&postcount=23. Overall, he drafts DL in 86% of his drafts, TE 86%, RB/FB 71%, DB 86% (CB & S). Each draft, he is looking to find players who can help create a mismatch at the line of scrimmage in the 1st round (Mankins being the anomoly, but you could call him a talent mismatch vice position), overall he is looking to create competition and depth in the secondary and backfield - presumably trying to find talent mismatches (Ty Law/Kevin Faulk) for further depth.

Second question: Does the mismatch apply more to the run game then the passing game? My thinking is it affects both, but shades toward the run game.

It would seem a first round draft pick would need to be a player who either through position or natural talent creates a mismatch at the line of scrimmage. When looking at first round prospects it would seem reasonable to target players who create talent mismatches, and do it at mismatch positions; I would define mismatch positions as DL, TE, RB/FB, and maybe OT. A WR or CB can create a mismatch through natural talent, but the position does not aid the run game as naturally as do mismatch positions.

Example: Who is more likely to win a battle at the line of scrimmage, OG or ILB? In the open field the LB has the edge, but the line of scrimmage is most often an enclosed space where the OG would have the edge. So if you were drafting in round one, you'd say that by position an OG creates more value through the mismatch advantage over an ILB.

Example: A real life example would be Greg Olsen, he's a TE which is a natural mismatch position, but he's a converted WR whose blocking will do little in the run game. Since he does not create a mismatch in the run game, he would grade out of the first round. Let's look at a similar case whom the Pats did draft, Ben Watson. Ben was drafted at #32 after Vince Wilfork had been drafted at #21. The first player chosen was a natural mismatch and a talent mismatch, the second player was a natural mismatch with developmental talent taken at the very end of the round. Daniel Graham was taken at #21, he probably was considered a better blocker given how quickly he developed here.

So, does any of this make sense? If you had to weigh the relative value of say Brian Leonard and David Harris, which creates the greater mismatch at the line of scrimmage? Who is the better mismatch, Drew Stanton or John Beck? Reggie Nelson or Josh Gattis? I'm getting dizzy, must be time for more meds.

Re: Draft Theory - Mismatch at the Line of Scrimmage
 

You're making my head hurt. Are you sure you're not overthinking things?

Re: Draft Theory - Mismatch at the Line of Scrimmage
 

Always, but I'm sick, lame, and lazy for awhile and it's a slow football period.

Re: Draft Theory - Mismatch at the Line of Scrimmage
 

I think this makes a LOT of sense. And it would explain why BB didn't take Lawson last year and took Maroney instead.

Re: Draft Theory - Mismatch at the Line of Scrimmage
 

I think BB's strategy has a tremendous amount to do with mismatches and double-teams. If you force a double-team to neutralize a player, you're ahead on the rest of the field.

In particular, I think he expects a WR to be able to beat a DB one on one, but a pair of DBs to be able to shut down a WR. Anything which deviates from that is goodness.

And a fundamental precept of the 3-4 is to have 3 guys offsetting 5 as much as possible. Another precept is to force the offense to set up pass-blocking against an LB and then have him drop into coverage, wasting their blockers.

I don't think you're going to succeed in grading a lot of positions high or low by this standard; BB thinks that way all over the field.

Re: Draft Theory - Mismatch at the Line of Scrimmage
 

He surely does, but three maybe four positions seem to create mismatches more easily than the others. The trick is to estimate how this mismatch can be created, do you draft the top ILB and create a mismatch? Or do you draft the top WR to do that?

BB hasn't missed in the first round yet, and he seems to have done that by drafting at two positions DL and TE, we also have Mankins and Maroney as examples to consider. Since BB took RB/FB in 5 of 7 drafts, doubling up once in his very first NE draft, he feels a need to acquire backs. I've tried to analyze that by calling RB/FB a mismatch position, which may be wrong, but it's a thought. Mankins is a seriously good OL who can play OT or OG.

If we are trying to guess who he might take in round one, who creates the greatest mismatch potential 'at' the line of scrimmage - with the primary emphasis on run?

Re: Draft Theory - Mismatch at the Line of Scrimmage
 

BOR looks like you have finally gotten into BB's head, this premise makes about as much sense as anything else when it comes to draft time. There is a lot of posturing,bringing in different players etc. but bottom line is that we never know till that Saturday afternoon, when they make the final decision. I have felt all along, that the pundits who are choosing an O tackle might be right, because we can never have enough depth at this position. When your reserve tackle is a first round pick, you have created a serious mismatch.

Re: Draft Theory - Mismatch at the Line of Scrimmage
 

I don't wholly buy either the emphasis on "at the line of scrimmage" or "against the run".

I do think it's fair to emphasize "a large fraction of all downs". So maybe a CB isn't that important on what turn out to be running plays, while a TE is important pretty much all the time. But again, I think you've asserted some specifics that, at least to me, are pretty non-obvious.

Re: Draft Theory - Mismatch at the Line of Scrimmage
 

I agree...this is a new (to me) way of looking at the draft and at BB's strategy. Now, Box, can you apply it to this year's draft, to see which players might rank high on the Patriot's board and why? If you've cracked the code, you'll be the first, and some of those unexpected picks will start to make sense.

Re: Draft Theory - Mismatch at the Line of Scrimmage
 

I think this is the thought process Belichick goes through when picking from a group of players of equal value.

When Watson was picked, the other guys were were looking at included Karlos Dansby, Ricardo Coclough, Sean Jones and Chris Snee. As fans, we neglected to consider Watson because he didn't fill a "need." A fast TE, however, creates a mismatch, particularly against a cover 2 defense. Combining a fast recieving TE with a solid blocking TE (Graham, Brady) creates a "double mismatch" in that there is one TE pass protect or free up a tackly, and another to draw the LBs or S.

If Belichick has proven one thing over the years, it is that you do not need a stud at every position. We will always have JAGs in our rotation, and Belichick will continue to give us draft-day "surprises" that are confounding because they don't fit a need.

I think this also explains BB's tendency to convert DE's rather than drafting a college LB. By selecting a DE with the physical tools to also play LB, you create a mismatch in felxibility of defensive allignments.