First Things First - Extend Samuel
 

I know it's fun to speculate and wish about additional FA's that could help us. However, IMO, our only big bucks priority now should be to close the deal on a contract extension for Samuel. Doing so will really solidify our CB situation, and clarify the priorities for all other needs.

I can't understand the wishes for trading and signing Briggs, when it seems likely that doing so would seriously threaten our ability to get a deal done with Samuel.

The guy who's still out there that I'd like more than Briggs is S Ken Hamlin. But I feel the same about him as I do about any other high priced FA. He is a lower priority than re-signing Samuel.

Re: First Things First - Extend Samuel
 

Butch Stearns on Fox25 News last night said he talked to Shavers and that he and the Pats are "in discussions."

Re: First Things First - Extend Samuel
 

1. Samuel had a great year last year, but so far its his only one. It would hardly be unprecedented if his fourth season turned out to be the best.

If Samuel's assessment of his own value included a substantial discount because of this, I would agree with you that we should sign him right now.

But from all outward appearances, it looks like Samuel thinks he will be a perennial pro bowl contender. If so, we should wait for him to prove it by having a second consecutive great season. If he does, we can talk extension during the season. If not, maybe his self-assessment will become more reasonable, and we can talk about a far more modest extension during the season.

2. We can get both Briggs AND sign Samuel long term. But by doing so, we risk future salary cap difficulties if any of our big signing (Samuel, Briggs and AD) don't turn out as we expect. Unfortunately, there IS a pretty good chance that one of the three won't turn out as we expect (and I mean any one of the three, not just Samuel). Briggs would probably have to accept an AD style Patriots discount for this to be worth the risk.

Re: First Things First - Extend Samuel
 

Ok seriously. Why would we want Briggs? We have Colvin and Thomas on the outside, Bruschi and Vrabel inside, and Vrabel and Thomas will switch around some. I don't understand it. How about instead of wasting money on a probowler that won't play much, and signing a decent backup for far less money. We don't need another OLB.

Re: First Things First - Extend Samuel
 

I assume Shavers is Samuel's agent ?

Re: First Things First - Extend Samuel
 

Depth and rotations.

Depth because we always seem to have a lot of injuries. Rotations because that still only leaves us with 5 starters for 4 spots - we could keep everyone fresh until injuries hit. Big advantage in the 4th quarter.

Re: First Things First - Extend Samuel
 

We can certainly talk extension but we cannot sign a multi year extension with him after July 15 until the last week of the regular season. Between those periods a franchise tagged player can only be signed to a one year deal, which seldom happens except as a means to get them into camp (basically the tag salary guaranteed and an agreement not to re-tag as was done with Alexander).

Once he makes it to that point he is a playoffs appearance away from being a FA again, and since his signing bonus here/then would incorporate what he already pocketed in tag salary there is a liklihood he would opt instead to hold off on a deal preferring to test the market again (and receive an additional double digit signing bonus in 2008 or be re tagged at $9.5M.)

There is also the possibility that Stallworth proves to be a stellar addition at #1 and his option is exercized. I know there are those who believe that his $11M option bonus would then be renegotiated, but I doubt Donte and his agent are in that camp.

There are only so many $6M+ players you can carry on a roster before they start to seriously impact your ability to carry quality players at every position including depth. Or your ability to replace one of them if the unthinkable happens. Not to mention your ability to retain other talent completing their rookie deals.

That's why I still believe they will either come to agreement prior to draft day or flip Asante for picks. After that the only viable options remaining are to give him what he wants long term or perhaps trade away the right to re-tag him in order to get him into camp. If they flip him it's possible they would persue another expensive LB and opt to focus the draft on the secondary.

Tom Curran was on WEEI yesterday and someone asked him how close he thought they were last November to getting a deal done - and his response was not close at all, and that was before he added several more picks to the equation. So while Shavers and the team are in discussions those may not yet lead to a deal and could very well yet lead to a trade. But unlike the Briggs (or Branch) situation, I do think they will lead to something amenable to both sides and probably prior to the draft. I just don't think Belioli will head into another TC with a potentially ugly holdout situation marring an otherwise promising off season.

Re: First Things First - Extend Samuel
 

Samuel was amazing the second half of last year, but I have to admit to being a bit skeptical. Just by happenstance, I watched some of the Carolina Panthers game last night -- it lives permanently on my tivo. He really got torched quite a bit.

If the staff thinks he's worth signing long term, so be it, and I'll be glad for the extra cap room. But I am a bit concerned about complacency with a long-term deal. He might play better next year under a franchise tag.

Re: First Things First - Extend Samuel
 

In this instance, I don't see how the fair and reasonable offer that the Pats will and should make could possibly come near the bloated and ridicolous offer Samuel would get on the market.

Unless Samuel really wants to remain a Patriot long term to the point he's willing to sign for much less than he could get or the Patriots determine he will be OK with playing under the tag, then I think he gets moved for picks.

Re: First Things First - Extend Samuel
 

My hypothesis is that the Pats and Samuel have already agreed to a deal, but are waiting until after the draft to formalize it. Knowing that the Pats had a long-term deal with Samuel would give a lot of information to other teams about the Pats draft priorities -- information that Belichick would rather hold close to the vest.

Why do I think this? Asante couldn't stop the big grin in the TV interview when he said things were "going good" with the Pats.