The Importance of the #3 Seed...
 

Or should I say, the importance of the seed that avoids San Diego as long as possible. At this point, the Pats have essentially no shot at a bye (I suppose it's not impossible if McNair's out--the Ravens would have to lose to Pittsburgh and Buffalo, while the Colts would have to lose tonight and then to Miami in the season finale while the Pats win out. So it's highly unlikely).

The bye would obviously have been huge, but I don't think anyone doubts the Pats can win their home game in the wildcard round. The question then is who they play next. I think travelling to San Diego, playing a rested Chargers team, would be extremely difficult to do--I'd give the Pats a 10% shot at winning. But I think a game against, say, the Ravens would be very winnable, with the possibility that the Colts beat San Diego and the Pats get the Colts at home. THAT game I could see the Pats winning. And I think we've all seen enough of the NFC this year to know that the Pats--then having a two-week rest, would probably win the Super Bowl.

So.....how to avoid San Diego? I think it's actually hard to say--you'd have to guess that it means getting the #3 seed, assuming San Diego finishes first. But if the Chargers lose to Seattle and end up tied with Baltimore, maybe the Ravens would be the #1 seed (Looks to me like it'd be tied on conference record, and I'm too lazy to research further). Remaining games of the division leaders are:

San Diego 12-2, @ Seattle, AZ
Baltimore 11-3, @ Pitt, Buffalo
Indy 10-3, Cincy, @ Houston, Miami
Pats 10-4, @ Jax, @ Tenn

At any rate, if I had to predict I'd say the Colts losing tonight might be very important to the Pats' Super Bowl hopes.

Re: The Importance of the #3 Seed...
 

Well, the Colts losing tonight is high on my Christmas list, but then that's every game for them. I will also add expecting the Colts to pull it out against Ladanian Tomlinson and his associates is just a tad wishful...:(

Re: The Importance of the #3 Seed...
 

LT would run for 350 yards against the Colts, haha. I would go as far as saying that it's almost inevitable that the Chargers will be in the AFC Championship game, so assuming we make it that far we will have to play them anyway.

Re: The Importance of the #3 Seed...
 

Agreed that the road most likely goes through San Diego regardless, but the goal is to put that off as long as possible, knowing that weird things can and do happen.

Re: The Importance of the #3 Seed...
 

I agree that it's at least possible that the colts could knock off the chargers.

The pats could as well but it will definately be tough.

I think they're the best team in football right now and I think they are gonna win the super bowl.

but I'm hoping to get lucky ! :)

Re: The Importance of the #3 Seed...
 

................

Re: The Importance of the #3 Seed...
 

We're pretty much a lock at #4. Indy would have to lose 2 of 3, and while I see them losing to Cincy tonight, I doubt Houston or Miami gets them.

Re: The Importance of the #3 Seed...
 

Yes, unless Belichi- er - Schottenheimer - inexplicably decides to abandon the run in the a second half!

Re: The Importance of the #3 Seed...
 

That is going to go down as one of the most unexplainable things of this entire season. Why didn't teams continue to pound the ball against the Colts? Team after Team would run all over them but feel the need to throw the ball which plays right into the only strength of the Colts defense. It amazed me week after week I would watch the Colts and I would watch their opponents do the exact same thing, run it down the field and then get near the red zone and suddenly they would start throwing the football. :bricks:

Re: The Importance of the #3 Seed...
 

Advantages to being #3:

-Play the #6 seed (though in '06 there isn't much difference between 5/6)
-Guaranteed to play #2 in the divisional (if we win the WC game)
-Chance we may host the title game if #1 (San Diego) is upset

Disadvantages:

-The #6 seed could be "better" than #5 at that point, or just a team you have problems with (see Denver)
-The #2 gets to focus their preparation for the bye week on the #3 team (4,5 not as much)