Updated tiebreaker analysis (w/ bonus)
 

(An update on last week’s tiebreaker analysis: http://208.109.107.176/new-england-p...ad.php?t=45599)

The win against the Lions clears things up a bit, as now our conference record mirrors our overall record. We took an enormous hit in strength of victory though, so I’m worried about that one now (more below). Not much has changed from last week except San Diego only has one more chance to lose (this week against Denver), otherwise they get the common games tiebreaker. Also, there has been a lot of posting about 3-way ties—that only would help us if we'd have a better conference record, which we wouldn’t. The only tiebreaker below we have a chance of getting is against San Diego.

Vs. Jets (Pats 9-3, Jets 7-5)
2nd tiebreaker: Division record - Pats 4-1, Jets 3-1.
Remaining games: Pats at Phins, Jets vs Bills and at Phins.
Outlook: Patriots can secure a tie for this one with a win over Phins, otherwise the Jets could get this tiebreaker.

3rd tiebreaker: Common games
Jets schedule:
Sep 10 @Tennessee Won 23-16 (Pats to play)
Sep 24 @Buffalo Won 28-20 (Pats win)
Oct 1 Indianapolis Lost 28-31 (Pats loss)
Oct 8 @Jacksonville Lost 0-41 (Pats to play)
Oct 15 Miami Won 20-17 (Pats to win)
Oct 22 Detroit Won 31-24 (Pats to play)
Nov 19 Chicago Lost 0-10 (Pats win)
Nov 26 Houston Won 26-11 (Pats to play)
Dec 3 @Green Bay Won (Pats win)
Dec 10 Buffalo 4:15pm (Pats win)
Dec 17 @Minnesota 1:00pm (Pats win)
Dec 25 @Miami 8:30pm (Pats to play)
Current: Jets 6-3, Pats 7-1
Outlook: All the Patriots remaining games are common games, as are 3 of the Jets' games. But since the Jets need to make up two games anyway, this would likely end up in a tie (as long as the Jets beat Oakland). There are only two non-common games in these schedules, and both teams would be 1-1 in those if the Jets beat Oakland.

4th tiebreaker: AFC record (thanks to Alamo for pointing out my original mistake). Jets 5-4, Pats 5-3. It goes to the Jets since we'd have to lose two AFC games in order to tie with them.

Overall: Obviously with a two-game lead we hope that the tiebreaker won't come into play. If it does, the Jets get it by division record or AFC record.

vs. Ravens (Pats 9-3, Ravens 9-3)
2nd tiebreaker: AFC record (Pats 5-3, Ravens 6-2)
It goes to the Ravens, both teams have all their remaining games in-conference so no way for the Patriots to gain a game in the conference record and still be tied. Note that this includes any multi-way ties since it’s the second tiebreaker after head-to-head.
Ravens remaining schedule:
Dec 10 @Kansas City 1:00pm
Dec 17 Cleveland 1:00pm
Dec 24 @Pittsburgh 1:00pm
Dec 31 Buffalo 1:00pm
Outlook: Similar to our schedule in toughness, we’ll see.

vs. Dolts (Pats 9-3, Dolts 10-2)
1st tiebreaker: Colts by head to head, but probably wouldn’t apply if in a multi-way tie.
2nd tiebreaker: AFC record (Pats 5-3, Dolts 7-1)
It goes to the Dolts, both teams have all their remaining games in-conference so no way for the Patriots to gain 2 games in the conference record and still be tied. Note that this includes any multi-way ties since it’s the second tiebreaker after head-to-head.
Dolts remaining schedule:
Dec 10 @Jacksonville 1:00pm
Dec 18 Cincinnati 8:30pm
Dec 24 @Houston 1:00pm
Dec 31 Miami 1:00pm
Outlook: Slightly tougher than our schedule in toughness, we’ll see.

vs. Chargers (Pats 9-3, Chargers 10-2)
2nd tiebreaker: AFC record (Pats 5-3, Chargers 8-2)
Chargers remaining schedule:
Dec 10 Denver 4:15pm (AFC)
Dec 17 Kansas City 4:05pm (AFC)
Dec 24 @Seattle 4:15pm
Dec 31 Arizona 4:15pm
Outlook: The Chargers have to lose one of these three AFC games to give the Patriots a chance to tie this by winning out their AFC games.

3rd tiebreaker: common games
Common games:
Sep 17 Tennessee Won (Pats to play)
Nov 12 @Cincinnati Won (Pats win)
Nov 19 @Denver Won (Pats loss)
Dec 3 @Buffalo Won (Pats win X 2)
Dec 10 Denver
Current: SD 4-0, Patriots 3-1
Remaining: SD - Denver; Pats - Tenn.
Outlook: If the Patriots beat Tennessee, SD needs to lose to Denver to force a tie.

4th tiebreaker: Strength of victory. I haven’t done the math, but I may later in the week (unless anyone else volunteers!). Currently (http://www.nfl.com/standings/conference) the Patriots have a big lead (.463 to .392), but not as large as last week. It seems like we’d get it, but without doing the math I’m not sure.

Overall: A loss by San Diego to Denver and the tie probably goes to the Patriots, otherwise the Chargers get it.

Bonus: Miami (5-7) vs. wildcard contenders (all at 7-5)
1st tiebreaker: Head-to-head
Oct 15 @N.Y. Jets Lost 17-20
Nov 12 Kansas City Won 13-10
Dec 3 Jacksonville Lost 10-24
Dec 25 N.Y. Jets 8:30pm
Outlook: They do have it over KC, could tie with the Jets with a xmas win, but they lose it to Jax.

2nd tiebreaker: Division or AFC record
Jets: Division record
Phins (0-3), Jets (3-1)
Others: AFC record, the Dolphins have 6 AFC losses.
Cincinnati 5-3
Jacksonville 4-4
Kansas City 3-5
Denver 7-3
Outlook: Cinci and Denver own the tiebreaker with the fins at 9-7 via AFC record, they could tie the Jets and Jax on this one at 9-7 (Jets would have to lose to Bills).

3rd tiebreaker: I ain’t doing common games for the lowly dolphins.

Overall: I guess they aren’t mathematically eliminated yet, but damn close. Two of these teams probably will make it 10-6, but the Phins have to hope that Jax, Cinci, and Denver don’t even make it to 9-7!

As always, let me know about errors or omissions. Tiebreaker rules here: http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers.

Re: Updated tiebreaker analysis (w/ bonus)
 

whoa! great work and thanks. i take away that, except for a tie with the Chargers, we're gonna have a tough time winning tie breakers.

Re: Updated tiebreaker analysis (w/ bonus)
 

4th tiebreaker for division ties is not SOV, it's conference record. If the Jets win out they will be 8-4 in the AFC. If the Jets do win out, for the tiebreaker to even matter we will have to lose two, bringing our AFC record to 7-5. So we would lose on conference record and never get to SOV.

Re: Updated tiebreaker analysis (w/ bonus)
 

You are the first one to catch that in 3 weeks of posting, thank you! Makes the Dolphins game less important than I thought, the tiebreaker goes to the Jets. I'll edit the above.

Re: Updated tiebreaker analysis (w/ bonus)
 

As always, I greatly appreciate the work put in to charts and analyses.

Please try to bump this occasionally and I will do the same as it seems we have plenty of stickies right now.

Re: Updated tiebreaker analysis (w/ bonus)
 

So basically we want the Donkeys to beat the Chargers next week right? As for the Colts they can lose the rest of their games for all I care... :)

Re: Updated tiebreaker analysis (w/ bonus)
 

You're welcome, and thanks for doing this, I like following it. I'd likely have caught it earlier but I wasn't reading much here the past 2 or 3 weeks due to the site slowness. Glad that's fixed!