PATs 8-1 odds to win SB 2007
 

Still can't understand why Colts keep coming in Tops.
I guess many feel they'll win it sooner or later and this may be the year.

http://www.onlinecasinonews.com/ocnv...e.asp?id=10839

It's the same old story, same old song and dance my friends.......................

Did you happen to catch the spelling of Pittsburgh 'Stealers' in the second paragraph? Humorous faux pas, or a little sarcasm being exhibited? :D

It is worth noting that this is not a power ranking, these guys are professional bookies who are trying to take our money, nothing more!

These guys probably know which teams get a lot of action and which teams don't. Having three teams in the NFC East as having similar odds to win the superbowl is WAY strange indeed! I think that they know they will get lots of betting on these popular, big city teams! So they give them an artifically low pay-out to compensate for the fact that big cities have more homers, and they don't need to offer enticing odds to get lots of action. The Redskins ought to be 100-1, in my opinion. At these 15-1 odds, a Skin fan is wasting his money, and taking a bad bet.

I would like to hear some theories on how betting odds like these are established!

Yes, what you are saying partially is taken into account in determining odds. Sports 'futures' odds are basically determined by recent past performance and current team situation and prediction of how they'll perform in the upcoming or current season. They are then adjusted depending upon the amount of action on that particular team. It is true that lines or odds for certain popular or 'public' teams such as USC are skewed because the oddsmakers know that a lot of money will come in on these teams due to their strong following. The player will always pay a premium, so to speak, odds-wise on popular teams or defending champions. The opening line for a particular game is typically set to get as close to a 50-50 split in the action as possible so that Vegas, etc. will make their money off the vigorish, or the extra amount of money (typically 10%) the player must put up to make a wager. This is how sports books make their money. If the Redskins were posted at 100-1 to win the SB there would be a flood of action on them and Vegas would take a bath should the 'Skins actually pull it off.

So why do they pick the Pats to go 8-1, ahead of popular preseason favorites? I'm actually surprised by the 'respect' the Pats get here in comparison to other 'power rankings'. I am wondering how the Pats' odds fit into the bookie's moneymaking scheme.

Simple. In head on games, odds (or point spread) are adjusted so that half the bets are on each team. If too many people bet on one team, the odds (point spread changes). Nothing to do with the best team or who they think will win. Just trying to keep the bets even. Since bookies take 10% of the winnings, they are guaranteed 5% of all money bet, as long as it stays 50-50.

In the case of superbowl odds, with 32 teams to monitor, it gets trickier, but the concept is still the same. SPread out the action, and that way they are guaranteed to make money no matter who wins.

So the high odds on the colts and pats is because too many betting people
think they will win so the odds makers are trying to get people to bet on other teams by giving better odds. Is this true by what you said?

This would seem to say lots of people are betting on the COLTS and PATs.

It's based partly on past performance, partly on betting public perception. Naturally, you wouldn't see the Pats at 100-1, just like you wouldn't see the Texans at 8-1 because everyone knows they are a longshot to go all the way and nobody would bet on them at those odds. The oddsmakers know more about the game than the so-called 'experts' in general, thus more respect for the Pats than what's being seen in the power rankings, preseason mags, etc.

my odds are 8-1 that the Colts don't win it

Can't believe anybody's complaining...
 

I don't think you can go into this season saying the Pats should be the odds-on favorite. "Same old story" my big white furry behind. There's a lot of morons out there saying we're "done" too, but the truth is in the middle. Denver just beat us, Watson-projected-ball-arguments aside, and handily at that. And then Denver got whomped. True, the big whompers (Steelers) have had a passel of departures and screwups since then, and the Colts have not bettered themselves appreciatively. True, the Pats' departures are pretty skillfully addressed in many areas... but I think you have to look at a #2 "seed" as a gift at this point.

I just cannot wait for the real season to begin so we can stop haggling about what people think will happen.

PFnV