Trading up in the 1st rd.- Actual costs
Most all of you have heard about the Draft Matrix. This places a relative value on every pick of the draft for use in trades. I heard that it was started w/ Jimmy Johnson in Dallas, but it might have started earlier, and become popular under his regime. Regardless, every team uses some form of this matrix and I hear that they are relatively similar. For discussion purposes hear is the one from Gil Brandt
I thought that you would all have an interest in what it would cost to actually move up, using the 1st round as my example. You will notice that I limited my picks to trade to 3. Firstly, otherwise I could be working on this all day. Secondly, picks in rounds 6 & 7 have so very little value when talking about 1st round picks that they are just levelers (throw ins to make a closer balance). Remember, our picks 205 & 206 are compensation picks awarded by the NFL and can’t be traded.
Be like Mike (Ditka) Trade: total value of our tradable picks =1749 which falls halfway between picks 4 &5 in the draft.
For pick 8: Cost= 21 +52+75
For pick 9: Cost= 21 + 52 + 86
For pick 11: Cost=21 + 52 + 106
For pick 11: Cost=21 + 52 + 118
For pick 12/13: Cost= 21 + 52
For pick 12/13: Cost = 21 + 75 + 86
For pick 14: Cost = 21+75 + 106
For pick 14/15: Cost= 21 + 75 + 118
For pick 15: Cost = 21 + 75 + 136
For pick 16: Cost = 21 + 75
For Pick 17: Cost = 21 + 86
For pick 18/19: Cost = 21 + 106
For pick 20: Cost = 21 + 118 (though this is a rare trade)
Anyway, I hope this helps…
Thanks for putting this info up. I never understood the great urgency to trade up, but that's just me. I always assumed those guys talking about trading into the top 10 were being silly. But then I did read a story on cnn.com about how a guy is trying to parlay a ball-point pen into a home, based on savvy trading. He's made it all the way to a year's stay in some guy's house. If we're going the trade route, we need to hire this guy.
Something tells me the Pats will get by somewhere in the vicinity of their present position.
By the way - there's an interesting bit about where first round choices fall, and what length of contract you can sign them to, somewhere on this board. I'm not sure whether your figures take the desireability of longer contracts into account. It would be a minor factor anyway.
One other point - people will always give you a better next-year pick than this-year pick, for some reason. You see this all the time - you give away a number 1, and you get a number 1 next year and a number 3 this year, that sort of thing.
I wonder if we could bundle some late (probably not round 6/7, can't be done) picks, and get a 3 or a 4 next year?
But it doesn't always have to go by this. Remember when we swapped picks with Chicago for Ty Warren, we only gave up a 6th rounder to move up, but it should've been more based on the chart. So if a team wants to, they'll do it.
I think the concept is future value versus present value and you'd rather have the player now as opposed to the future......
It makes sense if you've got a talented team and too many draft picks ...
(nice problem to have) or you think a future draft is more quality-laden....
I wonder if the NFL has some restriction on trading draft picks conditionally which is why you don't see too many (?any) 'top ten protected" compared to the NBA where you need an MBA, PhD and CPa to figure out the draft....
And this whole thing is based on a chart I make up every year. Really I make it up for the middle rds., 2-5, but when I transfered it from excell I decided to reverse the chart to make it more easily readible. Then they expected me to do some work... there will be more following tomorrow.
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