The Uncle Heatster Three-Round Mock Draft, v. 1.0
1 New York Jets (from Houston) - Trade. Houston trades with the New York Jets, swapping first rounders, and also picking up the Jets second rounder. I'll work out the rest of the details later, there could be a swap of day two picks. This gives the Texans five picks in the top 66, which is exactly what they need. The Jets use the pick to draft Reggie Bush RB USC
2 New Orleans - Vince Young QB Texas Desparately need someone to sell tickets. Young's game and the proximity to Texas, along with the eternal suckatude of Aaron Brooks, make him a logical choice. Poor Young will be thrown to the wolves from Day One. Hopefully he'll get through it OK.
3 Tennessee - Matt Leinart Mr. Leinart....Mr. Chow. I believe you've met?
4 Houston (from New York Jets) - This is the guy Houston wanted all along. The trade works perfectly, and they get the safest pick in the draft, and someone to help keep Carr vertical. D'Brickashaw Ferguson OT Virginia
5 Green Bay - Man, these guys need help almost everywhere, but the value here doesn't mesh with any of their most pressing needs. It has to be Hawk or Ngata here. Let's give them AJ Hawk LB Ohio St to pair with Barnett. Did you know Hawk is dating Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn's sister?
(Next spot subject to coin flip. Since the Raiders suck, let's say San Francisco wins the flip.)
6 San Francisco - De-Fense (clap, clap) De-Fense (clap, clap). That Bryant Young guy is getting old. Mario Williams DE NC State
7 Oakland - Since they can't draft a Head Coach, it's old fat man out, young fat man in Haloti Ngata DT Oregon
8 Buffalo - O-Line and Secondary seem to be their needs. But who can't use a pass rusher? I'm thinking Tamba Hali DE Penn St
9 Detroit - It's possible OC Mike Martz can actually get something out of this offense. Some people would suggest another WR here. Not me though, that would be ridiculous. Now a pass-catching tight end......Vernon Davis TE Maryland
10 Arizona - Corner is tempting, but the Cards definitely need a pass rush or it doesn't matter who's playing corner. The pick is DeMeco Ryans LB Alabama
11 St. Louis - You just know that new HC Scott Linehan is going for a new offensive toy. Ike Bruce is aging, and I'm not sure Kevin Curtis is a number 2 guy. But a WR would be a reach here. It's hard to believe that in this day and age Brandon Manamaleuna passes as a starting tight end. Marcedes Lewis TE UCLA
12 Cleveland - Seems like a best player available team. Chad Greenway LB Iowa
13 Baltimore - Unbelievably, Kyle Boller's going to get another chance. However, someone has to be there if/when he fails. They also need RB help - I don't see them keeping Jamal Lewis, and as much as I like Musa Smith, who knows if he'll ever be healthy. So they're going to need someone to pair with Chester Taylor. Let's say they sign a veteran QB like Jon Kitna. That frees them up to get DeAngelo Williams RB Memphis
14 Philadelphia - Odd seeing them drafting this high. The need is obvious, and the same one they have every year. The pick is Santonio Holmes WR Ohio St
15 Atlanta - Let's see. It's gone from being the WRs fault, to the RBs fault, to the OLs fault, to the OCs fault. Is it time to draft a QB? No, not yet. They do need secondary help badly. They'll take Jimmy Williams DB Virginia Tech
16 Miami - You know, as good as Saban had these boys playing last year, they have several holes. They could use another big-play WR. An upgrade everywhere on the OL. Youth at every defensive position. Oh, and that QB guy. He should be familiar with Cutler, but is he sold on him? We'll see. I'm guessing not. Michael Huff DB Texas
17 Minnesota - Another new offensive-minded HC, and offense is where this team's lacking, if you can believe it. Years of drafting defensive players has paid off. Too bad Meathead isn't here to enjoy it. Unless Childress loves Cutler, I feel pretty certain about this pick, provided he lasts this long. Look for Childress to copy the Anderson/Bell backfield of Denver. Mewelde Moore is already cast in the role of Bell. And playing the role of Mike Anderson in this production, LenDale White RB USC
18 Dallas - I love trying to figure out the Tuna's drafts. Bledsoe has one foot in retirement, and Drew Henson doesn't look like he has Parcells' confidence. I don't know why, because I've only seen him play once this year, but Jay Cutler QB Vanderbilt reminds me of a QB Parcells drafted in the first round back in his Jets days.
(At this point, it looks like the Patriots can stand Pat. I think they're guaranteed of getting a player they want.)
19 San Diego - Aside from Wide Receiver, Corner seems to be their greatest need. Ashton Youboty CB Ohio St
20 Kansas City - The Chiefs need somebody to help them stop the run, but the O-line is the key to this team, and they are getting old. The pick is Winston Justice OT USC
21 New England - Okay, what are the possibilities here. We have corners Hill, Cromartie, Gordon, Marshall on the board. RB Maroney. LBs Lawson, Carpenter, Hodge, Sims. DTs Watson, Wright. TE Pope. S Simpson. DE Bunkley, Kiwanuka. WRs Moss, Jackson, Hagen. OTs Scott, Winston, Whitworth, McNeil. My Lord, if there's a trading partner, I think we move down. But I don't know, maybe BB is enamored with Lawson, Simpson, Pope, or one of the OTs. But someone must want the RB, right? Trade Scenario: The Patriots trade the #21 pick to Indianapolis (seriously) for the #30 pick, the #94 pick (giving the Pats 3 third rounders) and their #1in 2007. The Pats will likely give back a day two pick. The Colts take Lawrence Maroney RB Minnesota
22 Denver (from Washington) - I can't imagine a family guy like Pat Bowlen allowing Shanahan to sign T.O. Instead, the Broncos will draft Chad Jackson WR Florida
23 Tampa Bay - This could be the end for Derrick Brooks. If not, it's getting close. The pick is Bobby Carpenter LB Ohio St
24 Cincinnati - The Bengals drafting after The Patriots? What's happening here? Bengals need to get Kaevisharn on the bench, and quickly. The pick is Ko Simpson S South Carolina
25 New York Giants - Shaking up the 8 ball, all signs point to Tye Hill CB Clemson
26 Chicago - I think it's safe to say the defense is all set. The pick here needs to be someone Ortsman can get the ball to. Leonard Pope TE Georgia
(Patriots Update....right now they have to be entertaining the thought of moving up to grab Lawson, Bunkley, Cromartie, or possibly one of the tackles. Frankly, I'm not sure how Lawson and Kiwi are still on the board)
27 Carolina - You know what Steve Smith needs? Another guy just like him to keep defenses honest. A guy like Sinorice Moss WR Miami. First player from the U. this late? Is that possible?
28 Jacksonville - Could use a TE or DB. They'll stay in-state to take one, namely Antonio Cromartie CB Miami
29 Denver - The Cleveland rejects did okay this year, but they're only a band-aid. The pick is Mathias Kiwanuka DE Boston College
30 New England (from Indianapolis) - And they still have two guys on the board. Lawson could work to spell Colvin and Rosie. Bunkley could back up the ends, and provide some insurance in case Seymour leaves. Tough decision, and I'd be happy with either. In the end, I think the Pats take Manny Lawson LB NC State. And Pats fans in New Bedford go crazy, until they find out that Manny is not, in fact, Portuguese. And now with four more picks on Day One, the Pats are prepared to move up to get a DE, DB, or OT when they start coming off the board.
31 Seattle - With Joe Jurevicius likely moving on, a need for a WR is created. Derek Hagen WR Arizona St fits the bill.
32 Pittsburgh - Playing the role of the New England Patriots in April 2006, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Bettis. Gone. Randel-El. Gone. DeShea Townshend. Gone. Kimo. Gone. There's some issues here. The pick that makes sense is Broderick Bunkley DE Florida St
33 Houston - They could probably stand to take another lineman, and might with their next pick. They need some playmakers on defense, so let's go with Ernie Sims LB Florida St
34 New Orleans - The thing about a young franchise QB is that he's worthless if you can't protect him. So, the Saints will draft Jon Scott OT Texas
35 Houston (from New York Jets) - Back to protection, personified by Marcus McNeil OT Auburn
36 Green Bay - When you're guards are named Whitaker and Klemm, that's a clear cry for help. Here comes Max-Jean Gilles OL Georgia
(Pats radar probably looks something like CB Marshall, CB Gordon, OT Winston, OT O'Callaghan, OT Trueblood, TE Klopfenstein, DT Watson, LB Hodge, WR Nance, WR Hass, WR Baskett, DE Harris, DE Dvoracek, S Blue, RB Addai, OL Mangold)
37 Oakland - With Charles Woodson a memory, this is an opportune time to replace him with Charles Gordon CB Kansas
38 San Francisco - The OTs are moving now. The pick is Eric Winston OT Miami
(Belichick starting to get edgy, but too early to make a move)
39 Tennessee - Need a playmaking linebacker to make the loss of Bulluck easier to swallow. Someone like D'Qwell Jackson LB Maryland
40 Detroit - Get in on the OL parade while the gettin's good. Ryan O'Callaghan OT Cal
41 Arizona - Need some quality cover guys like Kelly Jennings CB Miami
42 Buffalo - It's pretty sad when your mobile QB is taking so many sacks. Hopefully Jeremy Trueblood OT Boston College can help prevent that from happening again.
(Does Belichick crave an OT? Now's the time to pull the trigger if so. But I'm thinking all the interest he was showing at Senior Bowl week was a smokescreen)
43 Cleveland - Why not stick with the BPA approach? In this case, I think it's Gabe Watson DT Michigan
44 Baltimore - Mercifully, the Ray Lewis era is winding down. His replacement could be Abdul Hodge LB Iowa
45 Philadelphia - I don't know. Maybe they'll take another WR in hope that somebody will pan out. Or a big RB. Or a lineman. Or a middle linebacker. Kai Parham LB Virginia
46 St. Louis - Need someone who can penetrate from the inside and clog the middle. Probably Orien Harris DT Miami
47 Atlanta - If they had their druthers, they'd probably like two new offensive tackles. So I think they'll take Andrew Whitworth OT LSU here.
48 Minnesota - I think that if nothing else, 2005 proved that Nate Burleson is not an acceptable replacement for Randy Moss. I'm sure the Vikes will target WR in free agency, but they'll also draft a guy like Greg Lee WR Pittsburgh
49 Dallas - For a decent team, Dallas has needs all over the place, either from guys being inadequate or guys getting close to calling it a career. Like, say, Larry Allen. A guy like Davin Joseph G Oklahoma could be his eventual replacement.
50 San Diego - Looking for a genuine receiving threat to complement Antonio Gates. Went the small school route with Vincent Jackson last year, perhaps more of the same this year with Martin Nance WR Miami Ohio?
51 Miami - Roderique Wright DT Texas is a nice guy to build a 3-4 defense around, right Nick?
52 New England - At first glance, CB Marshall looks like the guy. But this will likely be Dillon's last year with New England, so even though I expect them to bring in a second-tier free agent, I think this pick would be well spent on Joseph Addai RB LSU
53 Denver (from Washington) - Denver moves up to get its man, swapping second round picks with the Redskins, plus their third rounder (with a later round pick coming back). Denver uses the pick to nab Nick Mangold C Ohio St.
54 Kansas City - Back to that stopping the run bit I was mentioning last round. A guy like Dusty Dvoracek DT Oklahoma can help there.
55 Cincinnati - Is Willie Anderson still playing over there? If so, he won't be much longer. Daryn Colledge OT Boise St
56 New York Giants - They likely won't have all the linebacker injuries they had last year, but one more good one on the roster wouldn't hurt. Gerris Wilkerson LB Maryland
57 Chicago - Well, they really don't NEED defense, but figuring Azumah will likely leave, then there's a spot for Richard Marshall CB Fresno St, who probably shouldn't be on the board at this point.
58 Carolina - How Kris Mangum has held on to a starting position for this long I'll never know. The man here is Joel Klopfenstein TE Colorado
59 Tampa Bay - Either Rice or McFarland is likely to be cut. I'm guessing McFarland. But the value isn't there right now. Someone that might help is Mike Hass WR Oregon St
60 Jacksonville - Kyle Brady needs to be taken behind the barn and shot. Then replaced by Anthony Fasano TE Notre Dame
61 Washington (from Denver) - David Patten isn't the answer? Shocking. Better luck with Demetrius Williams WR Oregon
62 Indianapolis - They're going to need a corner. And a quickish linebacker would help. The better value here is Dee Webb CB Florida
63 Seattle - They look pretty good on defense, but will probably lose some secondary depth to free agency. The pick is Greg Blue S Georgia
64 Pittsburgh - Still not impressed with the Steeler's corners, and they'll lose at least one. Bring in Alan Zemaitis CB Penn St.
65 Houston - Did I mention that they need improvement on the offensive line? They'll take Deuce Lutui G USC
66 Houston (from New Orleans) - Back to the defense, but with another Islander Jesse Maholena DT Tennessee
67 Green Bay - In need of some intimidation in the secondary. They'll chose Darnell Bing S USC
68 San Francisco - If Mike Nolan's going to play the 3-4, he'll need personnel. Peterson's gone, so maybe they'll give Daryl Tapp LB Virginia Tech a look.
69 Oakland - Not sure exactly where this team's going or what it's trying to do. Robert Gallery doesn't look like he's all they dreamed of, though. Joe Toledo OT Washington
70 Buffalo (from Tennessee) - More line help. Charles Spencer G Pittsburgh
71 New York Jets - Mangini has seen enough of Pennington to lobby for a realistic backup.....you know, on the off-chance he gets injured. Omar Jacobs QB Bowling Green
72 Arizona - Have spent two picks on defense so far. It's time to improve the athleticism at Tight End with Dominique Byrd TE USC
73 Buffalo - Time to address the coverage. The pick is Johnathan Joseph CB South Carolina
74 Detroit - I'm still not buying Dre' Bly as a number one corner. I doubt anybody they draft here will be either, but maybe they get lucky with Derrick Martin CB Wyoming
75 New England (from Baltimore) - With these next two picks, I see the Pats pick up a WR and a ILB type. He'll probably talk to Charlie about Maurice Stovall, but the guy I think Belichick's going to opt for is Hank Baskett WR New Mexico
76 Philadelphia - Donte Whitner S Ohio St seems to be a logical candidate to spell Brian Dawkins.
77 St. Louis - Bulger is starting to get the "fragile" label. Brodie Croyle QB Alabama doesn't have a great arm, but seems to have the accuracy required in Linehan's offense.
78 Cleveland - Romeo will also talk to Charlie about Maurice Stovall WR Notre Dame, and will draft him too.
79 Atlanta - This looks like a fine place for Parys Haralson DE Tennessee.
80 Dallas - I'm not sure Parcells' has had a free safety he likes his entire time in Dallas. Your turn, Jason Allen S Tennessee
81 San Diego - Maybe some depth among the front 3. Babatunde Oshinowo DT Stanford appears to be a good fit.
82 Miami - "A Cornerback from the SEC? Sign me up," says Nick Saban, shortly before selecting DeMario Minter CB Georgia
83 Minnesota - The interior of the OL needs bulking up. And the fact that Mark Setterstrom G Minnesota is a local guy doesn't hurt.
84 Washington - LaVar, we hardly knew you. Thomas Howard LB UTEP
85 Kansas City - I think Herm's going to wind up with T.O. but after the annual meltdown, he's going to need someone to take his place on the roster. Jason Avant WR Michigan
86 New England - The Patriots were hoping either Dobbins or Roach fell to them here, and how about that, they get their choice. Tim Dobbins LB Iowa St
87 New York Giants - If Tiki went down, can Brandon Jacobs run in that offense? Probably not. A more athletic guy like Jerome Harrison RB Washington St might.
88 Chicago - They can hope Todd Watkins WR BYU has better hands than their current WR corps.
89 Carolina - Depending on free agency, they could be in the market for a running back. And Brian Calhoun RB Wisconsin is available.
90 Tampa Bay - More youth on the D side. They like what Kamerion Wimbley DE Florida St did up the road in Tallahassee.
91 Cincinnati - It seems they need a tight end, even though that would be a reach. When in doubt, go for a pass rusher, like Elvis Dumervil DE Louisville, who's probably laughing his ass off at Markus Vick these days.
92 Jacksonville - They were probably eyeballing Dumervil, but will gladly settle for Spencer Havner LB UCLA
93 Washington (from Denver) - I guess if Sean Taylor ends up in jail Daniel Bullocks S Nebraska would be good to have around.
94 New England (from Indianapolis) - Chances are NE will trade one of these three third rounders, but there's some useful players here, including Anwar Phillips CB Penn St.
95 Seattle - So much will depend on who they sign in free agency. And Maurice Morris has some good performances in limited carries. But the guy here is Garrett Mills RB Tulsa, a Patrick Pass type who can play RB or FB.
96 Pittsburgh - Steelers can afford to close the first day with a luxury pick in [b]Devin Hester KR Miami[b]. The Steelers rely on good field position with their offense.
That gives the Patriots a day one haul of:
Strong. Very Strong
Dobbins isn't ranked that high, and he has very little upside, but I wouldn't be shocked to see it. I don't like Baskett either, but I can't argue with the fact that we need a WR, so who knows which one we'll get.
This draft would be fantastic, but I doubt that Indy would give us their #1, #3 and next year's #1. I don't know how often trades like that happen, but the only one I know of was last year with the Redskins for Jason Campbell.
Other than that one, small thing, this was an excellent analysis. You paid attention to all 31 other teams and made good, reasonable picks, although I think a better pick at #75 would be Jason Allen. I would be just as happy with Stovall or Avant, whoever ends up falling, at the next pick. We take Havner or Dobbins, if either ends up falling, with the next pick. If not, we can take Devin Hester as a kick returner or Adam Stenavich on the line. Players like Will Derting are available in later rounds at ILB.
Lots of good work overall, thanks...I'll enjoy mulling over it. A few nitpicks do jump out:
- Given the way the top of your draft plays out, I'd expect more trades...e.g., once the first 2 tight ends go, there could be a scramble upwards to land Pope.
- I feel like you may be overvaluing OTs relative to some other positions. (I'd be shocked to see Jeremy Trueblood go so far ahead of a Babatunde Oshinowo, for instance.)
we got a future 1 for a 19 to 41 swap (in 03)... a 21 to 30 swap would net a 2 or 3, but not a 1 and a 3; not even just the 1 (even if we threw in all our day 2 picks. day two picks do not have a lot of trade value)...
great analysis though, otherwise
Thanks for the feedback. I did this without consulting the "chart". The next one will reflect reality (hopefully) a bit more. Although I do think if Maroney is on the board at that point, there will be a lot of teams interested in trading up, which could inflate his value some.
Question for all:
Let me put it to you. Let's say, by some divine intervention, The top 20 picks predicted go off the board in the first 20 slots, and Belichick is sitting at #21 with the options available in this scenario.
a) What would you like him to do? Draft whom? Trade back and then draft whom? Or even trade up to get somebody?
b) What do you think he WILL do?
I wouldn't mind trading up to 15 if White is still there. He's good value. Otherwise, I wouldn't mind trading down with a team looking to move up to secure a TE(Carolina/Denver?). We can still get a CB or LB at end of the 1st and have an extra 3rd rounder. Then, if we want to drop to the top of round 2 if Marshall is still there and still net another pick (4th rd), then that looks good too. You can still pretty much guarantee to get at least two or three more coveted players.
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