Why don't you want a top five pick?
 

Can someone explain to me the logic of not wanting to accept a top five pick for Cassel?

I have heard people say this in several discussions and I understand the economics behind a top five pick but I always go back to Seymour and think that is what your getting with a top five pick (I know he was 6).

Lets say there are 2 teams very interested in Cassel KC and Detroit and those two teams are the ones that will be investing the money in Cassel and they would perfer to give up the large money top five pick instead of their high 2nd rd pick and some extra picks. Are you really saying you dont take their top five pick?

Re: Why Don't you want a top five pick?
 

To me its the cost and risk that are involved. Your going to pay an unproven quantity like you would a proven upper echelon player. Its been proven that the shot gun approach works better. I.E. you draft a number of players who you think can produce and see who can and who can't, and its a lot cheaper. Plus if you use the #3 pick on a player lets say you fill one hole,if you trade down you might be able to fill several holes. If a top 5 pick is a bust (many times they are) because you put so much money into that pick it could mess your cap number for awhile. If on the other hand if a lower round pick is a bust its not nearly as big a deal.

Re: Why Don't you want a top five pick?
 

A top five pick is generally hard to trade down
A top five pick requires you generally invest a lot of money in to player (look at last years top five contracts)

However if Curry was still on the board it would be so hard not to take him but if not trading down and getting a good OT would make it worth while

Re: Why Don't you want a top five pick?
 

i think there is a misunderstanding around here.

i dont think people don't want a top 5 pick, i think it's just theyd rather not pay so much money for a player who has proven absolutely nothing in the league.

of course you want a top 5 pick. i think that financially though, it is more economical to trade that top 5 pick for a later first round pick, maybe in the mid to late teens plus get a second rounder this or the next season in addition (or more or less depending on where in the round you move to). so, you get a very good player in the first, and an extra pick and you probably spend 1/5 of the money if not less.

Re: Why Don't you want a top five pick?
 

That's all true. However, a team like the Pats that is aggressive about trading down and not getting some mega deal for the pick can probably move the pick. And there are relatively sure bets in the top 5. Aaron Curry, Jason Smith, and BJ Raji would be good values no matter what. With the Pats' track record on 1st round picks (and especially on top 10 picks), I would expect them to find gold.

Pricey yes. But for all those people who wanted Suggs or Peppers, not so unmanageable, and with much greater longevity.

Re: Why Don't you want a top five pick?
 

I'm with you, I don't understand the aversion to a top 5 pick either, especially since chances are great that the pick will be tradeable. Why? Stafford is not going #1 to the Lions. But at #3, he'll look good to many teams.

Here's my plausible fantasy for how things go in the next two months:

1. Patriots trade Cassell and their #1 to KC for KC's 1st two picks.
2. Patriots trade the #3 pick in the draft to, say, San Fran at #10, and pick up SFs 2nd rounder (or more, who knows?)
3. Patriots take Everette Brown or Brian Orakpo at #10, and in this order in the 2nd round: Delmas, Darius Butler, Clay Matthews, Unger/Mack (an OL).

How's that?

Re: Why Don't you want a top five pick?
 

That's a great scenario, and one of my possible trade scenarios for Cassel (probably the most optimistic one). A couple of thoughts if we traded #23 and Cassel for #3 and #34:

- Trading to SF is one option; Jacksonville trading #8 and #40 is another. There would still be about a 300 point loss based on the draft value charts (more for the SF combo you mentioned), but the Pats have always been willing to make a move without trying to squeeze bottom dollar out of it.
- With #8 and #40 or #10 and #42 we could take BJ Raji (my prefered choice), Everett Brown, or an OT; then with #34, 40, 47 and 58 we could take some combination of Barwin/Matthews/Sintim at LB (if we didn't take Brown at #8), Sean Smith/Alphonso Smith/DJ Moore/Butler at CB, and some combination of Sean Smith/Louis Delmas at S, possibly trading around in the round. Throw in Jarron Gilbert at #58 or an OL, or trade it back into 2010, and we'd be golden.

Re: Why Don't you want a top five pick?
 

Re: Why Don't you want a top five pick?
 

I currently see 5 possible trade scenarios for Cassel:

1. "The big cahuna": Trade Cassel and #23 to KC for #3 and #34.
2. "The straight up": Trade Cassel to Washington for #13. Unlikely, but Washington has been mentioned as a potential partner, and they spend big if they want something.
3. "The conditional": Trade Cassel to TB or Detroit for #19 or #20 plus a 2010 conditional pick (minimal 3rd round, conditional to 2nd on performance and 1st on extremely good results such as playoffs for Detroit or SB for TB).
4. "The future": Trade Cassel to Detroit or KC for #33 or #34 plus a 2010 conditional (minimal 2nd round, 1st if certain performance measurables are met). Probably the most likely scenario, since teams are willing to mortgage their future for the present.
5. "The mega trade": Trade Cassel to Carolina for Julius Peppers, with some minor compensation on either side to make it work out.

With Chicago and Minnesota likely out of the running, these are the main options I can see at this time. Unless the Jets want to give us their 1st round pick in each of the next 10 years. :D Otherwise we sign Cassel and keep him.

Re: Why Don't you want a top five pick?
 

Sorry, with the cost of a top 5 pick these days, the guy has to be a guaranteed franchise stud player to be worth the money. Say you select a player at a position that is generally lower paid like a safety, that rookie would immediately become the highest paid player at his position without playing a single down. So if you drafted a safety or another position that doesn't command top dollar, he would have to be the next Polumalu or Ed Reed to not make him a bad pick.