2008 AFC Playoff Race (Projection) Week 12
 

Back by popular demand. This projection model attempts to evaluate the expected win totals of the AFC Playoff contenders. It assumes that legitimate playoff contenders will beat the poor teams on their schedule and split the games they play against their fellow contenders.

Keep in mind, this is NOT a prediction but rather a mathematical breakdown based on laws of probability. It's meant to give us an idea of where each team stands in terms of not only their current record but their remaining schedule as well.

For example: The Patriots currently have a record of 7-4 with five games remaining. Two of those five games are against poor teams that they should beat (EW's). The remaining three games are against good teams that could go either way (CG's). That gives the Patriots an expected record of 10.5 - 5.5 (7-4 + 2-0 + 1.5 - 1.5). Obviously the 1.5-1.5 part is calculated by 3 games times 50% (0.50).

Here are the expected records for the rest of the AFC teams in contention.

TEAM.....Current Record.....Schedule.....Expected Wins (EW's)....Competive Games (CG's).....Expected Record

1) Titans: 10-1; @Det,Cle,@Hou,Pit,@Ind; 3 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 14-2
2) Jets: 8-3; Den,@SF,Buf,@Sea,Mia; 2 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5
3) Steelers: 8-3; @NE,Dal,Bal,@Ten,Cle; 1 EW; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 11-5
4) Broncos: 6-5; @NYJ,KC,@Car,Buf,@SD; 1 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 9-7
5) Colts: 7-4; @Cle,Cin,Det,@Jax,Ten; 4 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5
6) Ravens: 7-4; @Cin,Was,Pit,@Dal,Jax; 2 EW’s; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 – 5.5
================================================== ===========
7) Patriots: 7-4; Pit,@Sea,@Oak,Ari,@Buf; 2 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 – 5.5
8) Dolphins: 6-5; @StL,@Buf,SF,KC,@NYJ; 3 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10 - 6
9) Bills: 6-5; SF,Mia,@NYJ,@Den,NE; 1 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 9-7
10) Chargers: 4-7; Atl,Oak,@KC,@TB,Den; 2 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 7.5-8.5

NOTE: I'm keeping SD in the hunt b/c despite their poor record, they're still only two games out of first place and they still play the division leader once. It's starting to look like it might only take 7 or 8 wins to win that division.

Re: 2008 AFC Playoff Race (Projection) Week 12
 

Could really use a Charger win over the Colts tonight. That loss to The Jest is a KILLER right now. Absolute killer.

Re: 2008 AFC Playoff Race (Projection) Week 12
 

The Ravens may only win one remaining game. I think the Pats and Colts are going to get the two Wildcard spots. Unfortunetly, the Pats will have to head to Pittsburgh to start.

Re: 2008 AFC Playoff Race (Projection) Week 12
 

Especially since they beat the Titans today.

Re: 2008 AFC Playoff Race (Projection) Week 12
 

I'm slightly worried about Baltimore. Seeing how they handled Philly they may be able to take Washington. And with Pittsburgh you never know what team shows up. At least Dallas looks back on track now, that is a highly potential loss for them.

Next week's game might not be as losable as I originally thought, could be another must-win if Baltimore handles Cincy as expected. That Seattle game also worries me slightly, they have Hasselback now and aren't nearly as bad as they were early season.

If the Chargers win tonight that would help matters.

Re: 2008 AFC Playoff Race (Projection) Week 12
 

Im much more worried about Arizona then Seattle, Fitz and Boldin would have fun with the way the secondary is playing right now.

Re: 2008 AFC Playoff Race (Projection) Week 12
 

For sure. I was getting at the fact that earlier Seattle seemed like a freebie, now its still a game we should win but it's not going to be easy, especially in their house.

Re: 2008 AFC Playoff Race (Projection) Week 12
 

I don't think we should fret this stuff now, let's enjoy the young players getting experience and the growth of Matt Cassel as a qb, or should I say star qb. It looks like Indy's yr(eerily similar to what NYG did last yr), they should be 1-8, but they could be 12-4 when it's all said and done. I think our defense is so bad we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. I mean we needed 35 pts to win at home last week and it seemed like we needed 45 to win today. How can there be this much pressure on the offense? Let's not worry about this and just hope the defense comes around, because it's a disaster right now. If the playoffs come, great, if not, it was still an exciting year of missed opportunities.

Re: 2008 AFC Playoff Race (Projection) Week 12
 

The jets loss is a killer because , I dont see Denver beating the jets next week.. They are not a playoff team.. .San fran or Seattle .. Buffalo maybee and Miami maybee..We need another 2 jet losses, but it looks hard to find one..

Re: 2008 AFC Playoff Race (Projection) Week 12
 

I would be more worried about Arizona if it wasn't a 1PM game on the East Coast in December with the Cards most likely having their playoff spot all locked up without any possibility of getting a better seed. They will most definitely have the AFC West locked up at that point. It will be a question of whether they have the first round bye or have no shot at that bye by then.

Personally, I think if the Pats get by Pittsburgh, they could potentially run the table the rest of the way. I don't think there is another game on the schedule that they should lose. If they were playing the Cards in Arizona and they had something to play for, maybe.