2008 AFC Playoff Race - Week 11
 

The following information is based on a table I created to calculate the expected win totals of the AFC playoff contenders. While no game is a guarantee for anything, for the purpose of this project, I count games vs poor teams as an expected victory and games vs good teams as competitive matches with a 50% chance of victory and a 50% chance of defeat.

For example: The Patriots currently have a record of 6-4 with six games remaining. Two of those six games are against poor teams that they should beat. The remaining four games are against good teams that could go either way. That gives the Patriots an expected record of 10-6 (6-4 + 2-0 + 2-2).

Here are the expected records for the rest of the AFC teams in contention.

TEAM.....Current Record.....Schedule.....Expected Wins (EW's)....Competive Games (CG's).....Expected Record

1) Titans: 10-0; NYJ,@Det,Cle,@Hou,Pit,@Ind; 3 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 14.5-1.5
2) Steelers: 7-3; Cin,@NE,Dal,Bal,@Ten,Cle; 2 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 11-5
3) Jets: 7-3; @Ten,Den,@SF,Buf,@Sea,Mia; 2 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 11-5
4) Broncos: 6-4; Oak,@NYJ,KC,@Car,Buf,@SD; 2 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 10-6
5) Colts: 6-4; @SD,@Cle,Cin,Det,@Jax,Ten; 3 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 - 5.5
6) Dolphins: 6-4; NE,@StL,@Buf,SF,KC,@NYJ; 3 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 - 5.5
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7) Patriots: 6-4; @Mia,Pit,@Sea,@Oak,Ari,@Buf; 2 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 10-6
8) Bills: 5-4; Cle,@KC,SF,Mia,@NYJ,@Den,NE; 3 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 10-6
9) Ravens: 6-4; Phi,@Cin,Was,Pit,@Dal,Jax; 1 EW; 5 CG's; Exp.Record = 9.5 - 6.5
10) Chargers: 4-6; Ind,Atl,Oak,@KC,@TB,Den; 2 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 8-8
11) Jaguars: 4-6; Min,@Hou,@Chi,GB,Ind,@Bal; 1 EW; 5 CG's; Exp.Record = 7.5 - 8.5

NOTE:
By beating the Dolphins next week, we will boost our expected win total to 10.5 (7-4 record + 2 "easy wins" + 3 competive games with a 50% chance of winning each) and put ourselves in the #6 position. A loss on the other hand would drop our expected record to 9.5 - 6.5 and seriously damage our playoffs hopes. Even if we recovered to win 10 games we would likely lose out on all tie-breakers and end up watching the playoffs from home. In essence it could be 2002 all over again. For all intents and purposes, the Dolphin game represents the first true MUST-WIN game of the year for us. Even with a win we'll likely have to go 11-5 to guarantee ourselves a playoffs spot. What this analysis does is show us that there could be a logjam of 10-6 teams with a few of them missing the playoffs.

Re: 2008 AFC Playoff Race - Week 11
 

I guess we have to pull for the Titans and we beat Miami.. I dont like the Titans, and they have to be the most ugly 10-0 team ever.. But we need them to beat the jets, san diego to beat indy, and the Eagles to beat the ravens

Re: 2008 AFC Playoff Race - Week 11
 

This week wasn't good to us. We really wanted SD to beat Pit. We want the Chargers to win the West and force Denver into the Wild Card pool of teams. Our win over the Broncos won't weigh in on any tie-breaker unless they're a Wild Card team and the Chargers win the West. Similarly, if the Chargers are in the Wild Card race, their win over us could hurt us, especially since both Miami and Buffalo beat them.

Re: 2008 AFC Playoff Race - Week 11
 

Beat Miami next week and we're in the drivers seat for at least a WC.

The good part about this is if we do good enough to get in, we'll be battle tested as our season will seemingly be on the line each game from here on out. If we can't finish good enough with that schedule and end up missing the playoffs, we likely didn't deserve it and would not have done anything anyways had we made it.

Re: 2008 AFC Playoff Race - Week 11
 

If SD were to overtake Denver, that means Denver will be at best 10-6. We have to go 10-6 at the least anyways and that would put us over Denver with the H2H tiebreak.

Today was ALRIGHT... we didn't get any helpful upsets like Indy or Miami losing, but we also didn't have any hurtful upsets as Jax, SD, Balt all lost.

Re: 2008 AFC Playoff Race - Week 11
 

Yeah, today wasn't so bad. It would've helped if SD won but that wasn't crucial.

The Miami game is huge. If we get swept by them then we won't be able to win any tie-breakers.

Interestingly, the NFC games are also very important this year. If it comes down to us or one of our other AFC East rivals which is looking more and more likely, the NFC games will weigh heavily in the common opponent tie-breaker.

The only non-common opponent left on our schedule is Pittsburgh. But a loss there could hurt us on the AFC Record tie-breaker.

Basically it breaks down like this. If we win less than 11 games, we're likely not getting in. That means we need to go 5-1 or better from here on out.

Re: 2008 AFC Playoff Race - Week 11
 

I don't expect the AFC West to have 2 teams in it. Denver has a 2.5 game lead on SD, and the way SD is playing, they look all but done for.
Granted we are on the crap end of tie breaks with Indy & SD, but I don't thing the Bolts are going to be 10-6, and to me that's the # that gets the WC.
We have to beat Pitt for that potential tiebreaker, but it does look like they'll take the AFC North as I don't see the Ravens making it through their final stretch with less than 2 losses.

Really, our competition is to take care of the remaining division business or else. Indy's got us by virtue of their *win*, and I honestly think the Jets & Fins are in good shape to take us to the wire.

The Fins have the easiest remaining schedule, but they showed today they can let anybody play with them.
The Jets don't go back to back on their WC trips, and who knows which Denver & Seattle teams they'll face.

I agree that this Miami game is make or break for our playoff chances.

Re: 2008 AFC Playoff Race - Week 11
 

denver@jets is a big game from the pats point of view.will be interesting how the jets handle a similar 3 WR package of the broncos who may have champ bailey and young back.

Re: 2008 AFC Playoff Race - Week 11
 

A good analysis...I agree about next week that that helps..I also believe that a fivision win is most likely the best way to get in..Even if the Pats win next week, I still think it's going to be a rough time with other teams having smilar records in competition for the WC. Certainly a Pitts loss...a Miami loss...may have helped today..BUT can't count on other teams winning games. That is why 5 of 6 is really needed...and even with that..it might be hard.

Re: 2008 AFC Playoff Race - Week 11
 

Nice table, except it is wrong. Ravens are the 6th seed.

I think the Dolphins game is a must win, and I think you will win it. How do you win by two versus the Raiders, in the waning seconds??