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-   -   Karl Rove has Obama Winning 338-200 (http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/12/177073-karl-rove-has-obama-winning-338-200-a.html)

IcyPatriot 11-03-2008 09:12 PM
Karl Rove has Obama Winning 338-200
 
I know ... lots and lots of polls out there. I figure Rove is great at his game and he's biased ... so if he says Obama will win by that score ... gotta figure he's on to something.

http://rove.com/election

http://rove.com/uploads/0000/0051/Mc...3_08_FINAL.pdf

http://rove.com/images/0000/0116/McC...3-08-FINAL.gif

MrBigglesWorth 11-03-2008 09:15 PM
Re: Karl Rove has Obama Winning 338-200
 
Interesting on geographical breakdowns. the heartland versus the coasts and major cities. I know the reasons but it always fascinates me.

IcyPatriot 11-03-2008 09:21 PM
Re: Karl Rove has Obama Winning 338-200
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrBigglesWorth (Post 1144965)
Interesting on geographical breakdowns. the heartland versus the coasts and major cities. I know the reasons but it always fascinates me.
Yeah ... but it appears to be changing as the country demographics are changing. the heartland is no longer just 4th, 5th, 6th generation Americans as it once was. The 1st and 2nd generation Americans are spreading around the country ... 2012 will be even more interesting. if the gop doesn't change it will be a slaughter next time.

BelichickFan 11-03-2008 09:21 PM
Re: Karl Rove has Obama Winning 338-200
 
Rasmussen has the battleground states getting very tight. No-one really knows but an Obama blowout is unlikely, just as a McCain win is.

IcyPatriot 11-03-2008 09:24 PM
Re: Karl Rove has Obama Winning 338-200
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BelichickFan (Post 1144979)
Rasmussen has the battleground states getting very tight. No-one really knows but an Obama blowout is unlikely, just as a McCain win is.

I though mcCain had a slim chance until I got this link from the hotair site. Karl Rove knows his stuff ... I'll believe this over all the others.

Watson's IQ 11-03-2008 09:26 PM
Re: Karl Rove has Obama Winning 338-200
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BelichickFan (Post 1144979)
Rasmussen has the battleground states getting very tight. No-one really knows but an Obama blowout is unlikely, just as a McCain win is.
Depends if you mean electorally or in the popular vote. And I suppose it also depends how you define "blowout". I don't expect a historic landslide, but Obama should win.. we'll say "convincingly". And why just look at one pollster when there are so many out there? Look at all of 'em.

BelichickFan 11-03-2008 09:26 PM
Re: Karl Rove has Obama Winning 338-200
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by IcyPatriot (Post 1144978)
Yeah ... but it appears to be changing as the country demographics are changing. the heartland is no longer just 4th, 5th, 6th generation Americans as it once was. The 1st and 2nd generation Americans are spreading around the country ... 2012 will be even more interesting. if the gop doesn't change it will be a slaughter next time.
Not sure about that, it's easy for the Dems to run this year on "Change (to what)" but if they have total control for four years and things don't get a lot better it will be tougher going next time.

BelichickFan 11-03-2008 09:33 PM
Re: Karl Rove has Obama Winning 338-200
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Watson's IQ (Post 1144986)
Depends if you mean electorally or in the popular vote. And I suppose it also depends how you define "blowout". I don't expect a historic landslide, but Obama should win.. we'll say "convincingly". And why just look at one pollster when there are so many out there? Look at all of 'em.
Rasmussen is a respected pollster. Sure he's just one - but Rove is just one guy also. State polls tend to be behind national polls and a lot of polls are adjusting for a big young vote which is looking questionable right now.

IcyPatriot 11-03-2008 09:34 PM
Re: Karl Rove has Obama Winning 338-200
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BelichickFan (Post 1144987)
Not sure about that, it's easy for the Dems to run this year on "Change (to what)" but if they have total control for four years and things don't get a lot better it will be tougher going next time.

Perhaps ... whomever can garner the Latin-American vote will stay in the lead for a while ... their demographics are growing in leaps and bounds. Right now they lean democrat ... if it stays that way who will the gop go after to rebuild their base ... women perhaps and that's about it.

Watson's IQ 11-03-2008 10:04 PM
Re: Karl Rove has Obama Winning 338-200
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BelichickFan (Post 1144997)
Rasmussen is a respected pollster. Sure he's just one - but Rove is just one guy also. State polls tend to be behind national polls and a lot of polls are adjusting for a big young vote which is looking questionable right now.
Oh, I'm not doubting Rasmussen at all. He's one of the absolute best and most accurate (Nate Silver rated him as the 3rd best this cycle: FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: pollster ratings), I'm just saying it's always wise to look at as many polls as possible - good ones anyways.


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