Prediction: BB adjusts defensive philosophy

pats1 said:

That's being ridiculous. You can't sit there and say "Oh, they only gave up 17 points and scored 14 points offensively" in one game and draw the conclusion that the offense needs more work.

The defense had serious problems stopping teams in obvious passing situations. They had serious problems getting the defense off the field on third downs. They had serious problems defending against medium-range passes, especially across the middle, and especially by TE and WR crossing patterns. This had happened all year and into parts of the two seasons prior.

Please read what AJ had to say. I said something similar on Monday, and there was a mixed response. We're not saying BB is going to tear apart the defense and start from scratch. We're simply saying that BB will probably look to correct some of the chronic problems that have plagued the team recently, which mainly lie in the defensive backfield. So whenever that is brought up, it doesn't mean we need to get all defensive about the defense.

Click to expand...

Pats were 8 for 16 in 3rd down conversions
Giants were 7 for 14 in 3rd down conversions

I guess the Giants will be tearing down their defense too.

ATippett56 said:

1st Round Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB from Ohio State
2nd Round Tracy Porter, CB from Indiana
3rd Round Jonathan Goff, ILB from Vanderbilt
3rd Round Wesley Woodyard, SS from Kentucky
4th Round Terrence Wheatley, CB from Colorado
5th Round Spencer Larson, ILB from Arizona
6th Round Jameel McClain, ILB from Syracuse
7th Round Best player available

Click to expand...

Last time I thought the draft was going to go somewhat how you predict, the order ended up going "RB, WR, TE,TE,K"

jbb9s said:

Last time I thought the draft was going to go somewhat how you predict, the order ended up going "RB, WR, TE,TE,K"

Click to expand...

I seriously doubt that will be the case in 2008, especially with Sammy Morris and David Thomas returning from IR. Meanwhile, Chad Jackson should be fully recovered from a torn ACL by the start of training camp.

I think the defense missed Colvin. If you look at the supebowl winning seasons big Willie allways made a big play when you needed it. I think we need more pass rush, look what it did for the Giants.

pats1 said:

We're not saying BB is going to tear apart the defense and start from scratch.

Click to expand...

It's time for the youth movement at linebacker, safety, and cornerback. There is no more use for sentimentality.

I predicted 2 years ago that Belichick will be the 1st coach to utilize double strong safties. A SS and a S/OLB at the same time utilizing his DE/OLB hybrid like we have seen.

The base package will be:
Basically sacrificing an ILB for a OLB/SS player.
Someone athletic, @6'3 and @230-235 Lbs.

2 - DE
1 - NT
1 - DE/OLB
1 - OLB
1 - ILB
1 - OLB/SS
1 - SS
1 - FS
2 - CB

makewayhomer said:

if Asante makes that catch we're all sitting here talking about how amazing our defense played in only giving up 10 points, and forcing 2 INT's

jesus people can overreact

Click to expand...

i dont think any of us are saying the defense stunk in that game
in fact it was one of their better games
but looking at the whole season, they could definitley stand to improve the back seven, and hope to see a healthier seymour, and improved warren

I'm curious to see how any adjustments may affect AD's pass rushing duties.
Was'nt he supposed to be a beast? I'm not talking about sunday of course, but throughout the year.

I don't see Belichick changing much of anything. I do see an offseason effort to restock the defense like he did with the offense last season. I wouldn't be surprised to see 5-6 new starters and/or key role players on defense next season.

PatsFanInVa said:

Okay, this is a new one: It was a rebuilding year!

But seriously folks...

I have to put myself in the corner of those who say the D is sound. Yes you can always get better, and maybe Hobbs goes, maybe Gay goes. Maybe we grab some more LB talent out in FA or maybe there's one out there BB actually trusts enough to draft. A little younger and a little faster would be fine.

But somebody here jotted down those last big plays...

I don't know if that was meant to prove that the D lacked talent and skills all year, or to make the opposite point, but think about it -- Eli pulling the Houdini with Pats all over him, Tyree (what the hell is a Tyree?) getting the ball loose from Harrison and trapping it against his helmet, then an all-out blitz leaving Hobbs on an island against Burress...

I dunno. I don't think of myself as a great football mind, but it seems to me like (a) you can always get better, but more importantly, (b) you can not look at this defense and say "oh those bums were just plain crap out there this year," especially in that last game.

I think people are focusing on those big "missed chance" plays, because that's exactly what they were, missed chances. We want Asante's fingers to come together a split second sooner. We want a wrist to magically turn at a slightly different angle with the hands on Eli's Jersey, and get him to the ground. We want Tyree's helmet to have a little more moisture on it and the ball to slip harmlessly away.

Those plays stick in your mind because they're the answers to the "if onlys".

BB mentioned today (in reference to players that might retire,) that he thinks they'll take some time to figure it out, and that right after a big loss isn't the clearest time to think through your priorities. I think he's right, although as fans, it's the time we're most likely to demand big changes.

It's frustrating to say, but with one or two exceptions, we can't get much better. There are 3 guys on the O-line (the unit that truly fell apart) in the pro bowl. The coach is coach of the year. The QB is regular season MVP, and set NFL records along w/the #1 receiver. The #2 guy set a franchise record for catches. The much-maligned running back stepped up at the end of the year and in the playoffs, and the D kept us in all the close games.

Yeah, we DID get too used to thinking "we're never out of it." It's a fine line. You want a team thinking that... but not thinking "we're never out of it because those other guys will do it" or "God will do it" or something. Somewhere along the way the accountability went out the window in this loss, by this theory. Just another word for overconfidence.

But crap, if it's crushing, it's hardly surprising, given all the media ballwashing we saw this season. And naturally, all fans bought into it. Remember Brady's clip replayed more where he says "he's not giving our offense much credit if he thinks we're only going to score 17 points"? It was like a GIVEN that we get at least 28.

We'll all put together our shopping lists for the draft and FA... and we'll see what happens. Meanwhile, the circus will still be in down, with Arlen Sphincter pulling a Joe McCarthy on the Pats coaching staff. We'll have time to digest that weird ride we took in 07, and the country will digest "spygate." We'll start 2008 0-0 like everybody else, and mortal. People will declare us dead once we lose a game. They'll be wrong.

The offseason will be interesting... who stays? Who goes? Of course the first thing we will worry about is Randy, who'll probably stay, and Asante, who'll probably go. But there will be many a painfully slow twist and turn between now and September.

Eh well. Seven months 'til kickoff!

PFnV

Click to expand...

Nice post,but what are we going to do until then???

pats63 said:

Nice post,but what are we going to do until then???

Click to expand...

Put "Madden 08" on "Season", and see if any of us can be as successful as the real Pats?

We need to get some younger players on D, otherwise things should be fine. Maybe a CB as well

I agree with Andy's original post. Of course you can look at the SB and say the D is fine, they only gave up 17 points, don't change anything.

But I think BB will make some subtle personnel and philsophical adjustments to do what AJ suggests. Why? Well, retirements and other personnel changes will make some of that happen, but more significantly...

The NFL has consistently changes the rules and emphasis in the last 5 years to upgrade the value of the passing attack. In the last offseason, BB clearly saw this need strategically, made huge upgrades, and look at the difference it made! I was surprised that he went this far, this extreme, so who knows what he'll do with the 2008 and beyond D.

Now, our D didn't exactly suck this year, but it was more of a balanced D, IMO not as "optimized" against the new offensive strategies. If anything, you would probably say our D was a little better positioned to stop the run than the pass in most games. Our D line is more stout than of the quick D end variety, linebackers Bru, Seau, and AD are bigger, and Harrison is more of the hard hitting safety than cover guy.

It seems logical to me that BB will at minimum evolve this D to be a better match for the offenses they face in the 2008 NFL. For more evidence, look at Indy of all places. They were the #1 scoring defense in the NFL in 2007. Indy! Now we all know they play a different base scheme, but they have invested in personnel that is more of the type Andy is suggesting BB will subtly infuse into the system: a little smaller, more quicks, fast tackling to the ball, but all still within the Pats system.

In this system, I think the value of good cover corners is slightly higher, which means they may stretch a little for Asante, who's skills are a good match for this need, draft another corner, will value Colvin's skills, figure out how to use AD's speed more in schemes, get another McGinest-type fast DE/OLB type, and use better cover safeties. We will value the stouter type LB's somewhat less, which may mean less use of Tedy and Junior, who will retire, and more of the younger types. Vrabel will remain a strong contributor.

The net of this will be a better matched D to the NFL. We will be marginally worse agains the run, and marginally better against the pass, but better optimized to get more stops on 3rd down passing situations, because we will get more blitz speed on the edges especially when we play that way, and a little tighter coverage when that is the call. When we looked just OK this year, we couldn't make those key 3rd down stops and break the will and momentum of the other team. I know there will be tradeoffs, there always are. For example, our red zone D got pretty stout at the end--nobody was running it in for TD's on us. This aspect might suffer a little with the subtle scheme and personnel changes.

This will mirror exactly what the offense did in 2007. We were not as good in the run, didn't emphasize it as much, took grief for it, but our passing attack was infintely better.

I don't see BB trying to overhaul the offense nearly as much when he analyzes it thoughtfully, as we know he does. Of course the O laid an egg overall in the super bowl, and that was crushing, but IMO that was a combo of playcalling, giants scheme and peculiar matchups against us on that day. There is just way too much overall evidence over the entire course of 2007 that we have something special, the right personnel and right approach.

If these changes are made to upgrade the D personnel and scheme, combined with BB's true defensive genius, here's my uplifting and wild prediction for the Pats in 2008: The D will be be the absolute top of the league...a showcase of speed, toughness, and clutch play! With the current NFL rules, I don't think they'll be able to be all-time record setters like the 2007 Offense, but I think they will distance themselves from everyone else in the league.

FirstAndGoal said:

Let's see.... the defense held the Giants to 3 points until the 11 minute mark of the 4th quarter and the "greatest offense ever" was held to 7 points until late in the 4th quarter and it's the defense that needs to change?

I guess the same can be said about the Giants. Their defense gave up 14 points and the offense was okay..... sure...

The defense hasn't played great every game but they did until they were too worn out. Face it, the offense chocked and the offensive line choked the worst. We'll need to change some things on defense but they were not the problem on Sunday. I don't care if the Giants scored on the last two possessions. The offense should not have put the defense in that position.

Click to expand...

The offense spent 18 weeks shielding the defense from being in that position.
When it mattered most the defense failed on 2 consecutive drives.
I don't know about you but if my defense doesnt even allow a first down in the 1st 3 quarters, then allows drives that cost me the game in the 4th, they played poorly.
Its not about adding up stats, its about winning football games. Its about situational football. In the situation where the other team needs a score and goes into a 2 minute offense, our defense is weak.
You can give me any other positive about the defense and I am still not comfortable with one that has that problem. Sure, thats a good D if you want to be a playoff contender and challenge, but to win a Championship, at some point your defense is going to need to make 4th quarter stops. That situation came up, and they failed...twice.

FirstAndGoal said:

Pats were 8 for 16 in 3rd down conversions
Giants were 7 for 14 in 3rd down conversions

I guess the Giants will be tearing down their defense too.

Click to expand...

16 third down conversions in one game is an awfully big sample size...

And even if it was, you're telling me that the Giants had just as good of a 3rd down conversion rate as one of the best offenses in NFL history.

How many rookie ILBs turned into All-PROs in the last 10 years? They are a rare bunch. I'm thinking BB is gonna gamble on a tall CB with pick #7, ILB with later picks and add 1 thru FA

AndyJohnson said:

You tell me:
If we replayed this game would you rather have our offense on its own 17 with 2:45 left down by 4, or our defense on the field with the Giants on their own 17 with 2:45 left.
I dont think its close, and the Giant defense is much better than the Giant offense.

Click to expand...

You just nailed it there.

Horace's Ivories said:

You just nailed it there.

Click to expand...

Exactly, the problem is that they just did not execute. In the Indy game, they did. Losing Rosie was huge for us. The lack of pressure after Rosie was lost for the season has been mentioned by a number of people. We need one other good linebacker and the defense needs to execute better. The had several opportunities to end that game, and they did not do it. Simple as that.

I agree with the conclusion: some adjustment (more of personnel than philosophy,) and nothing radical.

I disagree with how we're getting there - believing that the D was "the problem."

I agree that there may be upgrades to be had, and preventive maintenance to perform. Corner is obviously a question, with the possible departure of Samuel. Linebacker is a question now, if we want to avoid reliance on a 40 year old starting linebacker (assuming he stays.) These are, however, points we knew prior to the loss.

I don't think anybody's looking around and saying "jeez, if we'd just gone into that game with talent!"

So that's where this thread looks weird to me, the idea that in a reaction to the loss these will be the points we emphasize. They were already right there in front of us.

PFnV

i definitely want to see our D improved while maintaining our #1 ranked O.