Our Defense leading AFC in what stat...?

yukon cornelius · Oct 17, 2016

lol you do have to check the stats.....very, very similar to the last superbowl team

this defense has allowed 4 TD's in their last 4 games lmfao

MOST teams that struggle in red zone efficiency and 3rd down efficiency allow a lot of points; this team DOESN'T

the only way these stats become a concern is if the POINTS ALLOWED increases; if they don't start allowing teams to score more, than these stats are nothing more and anamolies

are they concerns now? NO....because they are allowing the 2nd lowest number of points in the league, the only defensive stat that truly matters.....

do they provide some areas for the coaching staff to focus on? sure.....but if they continue to allow an average of 12.8 points per game, they will win #5 going away

Ring 6 · Oct 17, 2016

robertweathers said:
PPG Allowed: 2nd
Yards:13th
Yards Per Play: 13th
3rd down %: 27th
FF: 11th
INT: 14th
Pass Per Att: 11th
Sacks: 19th
QB Rating: 14th
Plays over 40+ yards: 1st (zero)
Yards per rush: 7th
Yards per reception: 6th
Red Zone: 29th.

Clearly the 3rd down and red zone D stats are troubling but it doesn't seem as bad as the numbers indicate. The goal line stand yesterday was huge and limited CIN to 5/12 on 3rd down which is decent.

Their MO is to keep everything in front of them and make the opposing offense pick their way down the field

Overall, you don't get to be #2 in scoring defense without being good and this is a good defense. Just need to fine tune some areas and I'm confident as the season goes on they will.

This is why football is not a game to be analyzed by statistics.
I think everyone would agree that the Patriots philosophy on defense is first and foremost take away the big play. Like everything in football, if you want to take something away, you have to sacrifice something else. Without a doubt, the philosophy is aimed at allowing the fewest points.
So far the Patriots have allowed the 2nd fewest points in the NFL, allowed 0 40+ yard passes, and 1 20+ yard run. They have allowed 11 TDs in 6 games, and just 4 in the last 4.
I'm not sure why people want to point to the underlying stats that represent what is sacrificed in the philosophy as proof that even though the goal is achieved the defense is bad.

The reason to play is to win.
There are many different ways to win. Every team in every season is a difference in talent, strengths, weaknesses, opponents, philosophy. To try to determine which stats are necessary or most important to win is pointless, because what matters is the result.
Its the same with offense and defense. Points and turnovers are the goal. All the contributory stats that go into it will never change the result.
If you find a way to give up less points whether your underlying stats are good bad mediocre or ugly you have done more to win.

mosslost · Oct 17, 2016

AndyJohnson said:
This is why football is not a game to be analyzed by statistics.
I think everyone would agree that the Patriots philosophy on defense is first and foremost take away the big play. Like everything in football, if you want to take something away, you have to sacrifice something else. Without a doubt, the philosophy is aimed at allowing the fewest points.
So far the Patriots have allowed the 2nd fewest points in the NFL, allowed 0 40+ yard passes, and 1 20+ yard run. They have allowed 11 TDs in 6 games, and just 4 in the last 4.
I'm not sure why people want to point to the underlying stats that represent what is sacrificed in the philosophy as proof that even though the goal is achieved the defense is bad.

The reason to play is to win.
There are many different ways to win. Every team in every season is a difference in talent, strengths, weaknesses, opponents, philosophy. To try to determine which stats are necessary or most important to win is pointless, because what matters is the result.
Its the same with offense and defense. Points and turnovers are the goal. All the contributory stats that go into it will never change the result.
If you find a way to give up less points whether your underlying stats are good bad mediocre or ugly you have done more to win.

Same thing is true with passing yardage... sort of. You throw a lot more yards when you are in battles or even losing often. Brady being the exception of course.

Ring 6 · Oct 17, 2016

TommyBrady12 said:
I agree on the 3rd down conversion. The points allowed may have a lot to do with teams just dinking and dunking their way down the field and killing the clock. THey have not allowed many quick strike TDs this season, so the point totals are going to be less.

Most overrate stat in football.
The Patriots have allowed 5.7 3rd down conversions per game. Given the points they allow, that means most times, they stop the next one.
Comparatively, Denver has allowed 5 a game, but 17 more points. Which would you rather be. The day they start telling me that allowing more 3rd down conversions but fewer points determines winning or losing, I'll put more value in that stat.

yukon cornelius · Oct 17, 2016

the Madden generation is killing this game

Ring 6 · Oct 17, 2016

mosslost said:
Same thing is true with passing yardage... sort of. You throw a lot more yards when you are in battles or even losing often. Brady being the exception of course.

Again, you just cannot use statistics to judge football.
Here is an example. Look at Brady's record when he throws 50+ passes vs everyone else's.
Now, those 50+ pass games add up to great stats for the offense and terrible for the defense.
But when the 50 come from Brady using a game plan to throw almost every down, and building a huge lead by doing that, it is night and day different than being down 28-0 and having to throw every down right up through garbage time.
Any analysis that considers those 2 situations the same thing is horrendously flawed.

FourierSeries · Oct 17, 2016

PatsBoy12 said:
You don't win SB's that way, my friend. Sorry, I stick by my viewpoint on this one, especially when we've played the likes of MIA, HOU, BUF and CLE. I don't know if any of those teams will crack the top 10 in scoring by year's end. The bottom line is third down D and red zone D matter as well. They were good in those areas every time they won a SB and not as good every time they failed to win one, even when they kept points down. The Pats are usually in the top half every year in points allowed. It's the other factors that push them over the top.

Buffalo is currently #4 in PPG.

PatsBoy12 · Oct 17, 2016

FourierSeries said:
Buffalo is currently #4 in PPG.

I hear you. Hugely inflated because of the AZ game (33 points), though. And they likely won't finish there. And even if they did, that's one team out of five. The best offensive team we faced as far as talent was yesterday (IMO). Nonetheless, PPG is not the ONLY stat that matters in terms of winning a championship. I acknowledge it's the most important, but I will always disagree with anyone trying to tell me it's the only stat that matters. It's just not a true statement.

archstanton543 · Oct 17, 2016

Doesn't surprise me since the AFC is pretty crappy now that Manning's gone and now Worthlessburger is hurt.

FourierSeries · Oct 17, 2016

PatsBoy12 said:
I hear you. Hugely inflated because of the AZ game (33 points), though. And they likely won't finish there. And even if they did, that's one team out of five. The best offensive team we faced as far as talent was yesterday (IMO). Nonetheless, PPG is not the ONLY stat that matters in terms of winning a championship. I acknowledge it's the most important, but I will always disagree with anyone trying to tell me it's the only stat that matters. It's just not a true statement.

Allowing the second fewest (or even being in the top 5 or top 10) PPG is good enough when you've got a top offense that's quarterbacked by the GOAT (as long as that offense stays healthy.)

PatsFanSince74 · Oct 17, 2016

I haven't done the kind of statistical analysis that others have done or have the time and capacity to do, but, as a long time observer of the NFL, I just think that Red Zone and Third Down efficiency become more and more important as the season wears on and high quality opponents "find their games."

Don't get me wrong. I'm not dissing Points Against, but I think those numbers are destined to go up later in the season for any team if it doesn't address Red Zone/Third Down deficiencies sooner rather than later.

PatsBoy12 · Oct 17, 2016

FourierSeries said:
Allowing the second fewest (or even being in the top 5 or top 10) PPG is good enough when you've got a top offense that's quarterbacked by the GOAT (as long as that offense stays healthy.)

Respect. Not in the playoffs, I'm afraid. Now, yes. Playoffs, no.

FourierSeries · Oct 17, 2016

PatsBoy12 said:
Respect. Not in the playoffs, I'm afraid. Now, yes. Playoffs, no.

Sure it is. It was enough in 2014.

archstanton543 · Oct 17, 2016

FourierSeries said:
Sure it is. It was enough in 2014.

Just barely.

PatsBoy12 · Oct 17, 2016

FourierSeries said:
Sure it is. It was enough in 2014.

We were close to tops in the league in third down defense in 2014. And our red zone D was really good that year also. In the SB, in particular, Russell Wilson did not complete his first pass until midway through Q2. No team score a TD on the D in the second half of the second half of that season (before Baltimore in the divisional round), only field goals.

But I'm bowing out now. I'm not really all that interested in going back and forth anymore. You are so entitled to your opinion, as am I. I do not feel this is a SB defense at the present time and nothing you say is going to change that, though I appreciate you have your own opinion.

fightingirish595 · Oct 17, 2016

yukon cornelius said:
only one that truly matters

you don't get points for good 3rd down percentage

now, the other stats may be tools to identify areas that need improvement, but the only measure of a defense that actually matters is points allowed

score more points than the other team.....that's the only equation that matters

Every time you give up a third down you lose a chance to get the ball back and score points. And It will be harder to stop teams in the 4th quarter because your D will be on the field most of the game and theyll be tired

FourierSeries · Oct 17, 2016

PatsBoy12 said:
We were close to tops in the league in third down defense in 2014. And our red zone D was really good that year also. In the SB, in particular, Russell Wilson did not complete his first pass until midway through Q2. No team score a TD on the D in the second half of the second half of that season (before Baltimore in the divisional round), only field goals.

But I'm bowing out now. I'm not really all that interested in going back and forth anymore. You are so entitled to your opinion, as am I. I do not feel this is a SB defense at the present time and nothing you say is going to change that, though I appreciate you have your own opinion.

We finished that season 17th in the league in 3rd down defense. Through the first 6 games we were about where we are now.

Ring 6 · Oct 17, 2016

PatsBoy12 said:
We were close to tops in the league in third down defense in 2014. And our red zone D was really good that year also. But I'm bowing out now. I'm not really all that interested in going back and forth anymore. You are so entitled to your opinion, as am I. I do not feel this is a SB defense at the present time and nothing you say is going to change that, though I appreciate you have your own opinion.

Maybe you can explain to me this obsession with 3rd down defense.
You are talking about the difference in a 'bad' 3rd down defense and an 'ok' one being less than 1 conversion a game. We aren't talking about 1 TD per game. Most times it means you convert a 3rd own at their own 30 then punt from the 40 instead of the 30 once a game. How is this a dramatic thing?
People talk like teams have 4 drives a game converting 5 3rd downs on every drive against us.
I get that people watch a game and think 3rd down means we can get the ball back, but this is just an over analyzing of a stat that means little when put up against what happens next, and for the 2016 Patriots what happens next is they allow fewer points that just about anyone.

Ring 6 · Oct 17, 2016

fightingirish595 said:
Every time you give up a third down you lose a chance to get the ball back and score points. And It will be harder to stop teams in the 4th quarter because your D will be on the field most of the game and theyll be tired

The difference between bad and ok is this happening once a game.
That means it doesn't happen a second time, so its 3 plays.

Ring 6 · Oct 17, 2016

PatsBoy12 said:
Respect. Not in the playoffs, I'm afraid. Now, yes. Playoffs, no.

Wait. Tom Brady and a defense that doesn't allow many points are not valuable in the playoffs?

Our Defense leading AFC in what stat...?

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