Is the 2016 season Brady's last best hope for a 5th Super Bowl Title?

Galeb said:

Tom Brady has decent natural arm strength, but it is his mechanics that set him apart. Not only are his mechanics designed for maximum velocity and quick release, they are designed to limit wear and tear. He also conditions specifically to make his muscles, ligaments and tendons more supple and flexible than for shear strength. No QB in the NFL has taken the ecclectic, intensive approach to sustaining performance and performance longevity as Tom Brady has.

QBs are better protected than they've ever been, and if Brady avoids serious injury, I think his playing at a high level till 45 is less unlikely than most think.

TB12

Click to expand...

There is no doubt that Brady has excellent mechanics and a top notch training regimen and diet. There is also no doubt that they are part of the reason that he is still playing at a high level. However, the human body is still the human body and it doesn't recover from an NFL-style abuse from 300+ pound men at 40+ like it did in it's 20's and 30's. We saw signs of Brady beginning to wear down from the hits over the course of last season when the OL couldn't hold up. The Bye week did wonders for him. In the end, if anyone could do it, it would probably be Brady. However, I'm not counting on it. Like I said before, there's a reason why the list of guys who played at a top level after 40 is not a long one. They lose their fastball eventually and it will happen to Brady, too. Mechanics and diet be damned.

Ivan said:

Looking at what Manning got away with I think it's less of view an issue than I would have thought before this. I have seen high school QBs with more arm strength than Manning demonstrated all season and he somehow was able to get away with it. While I agree that the loss of arm strength will be the primary indicator of decline for Brady I think he will have to lose a substantial amount for it to make a significant difference, as he really doesn't rely on the deep ball so if he can keep his velocity up on the mid range throws he will be fine for some time to come.

Click to expand...

Manning was also arguably the worst quarterback in the NFL in the second half of 2014 and all of 2015, so I'm not sure that using him as an example bolsters your argument. He would have lost his job altogether if Assweiler didn't suck just as badly.

KontradictioN said:

Manning was also arguably the worst quarterback in the NFL in the second half of 2014 and all of 2015, so I'm not sure that using him as an example bolsters your argument. He would have lost his job altogether if Assweiler didn't suck just as badly.

Click to expand...

The fact that Manning almost certainly used HGH to pull off his ridiculous 500 TD season or whatever it was kind of makes any tracking of Brady to Manning impossible. You can't track Manning's aging in any natural, accurate way.

But regardless, your broader point is spot on--when Brady loses a touch off his fastball, that razor-thin difference between excellent and not-excellent will disappear. The hope is that he fends it off for as long as possible, and when he does lose the fastball (accuracy and velocity) it will be reflected with a drop down to "very good" QB for a half season or whatever until he finally hangs it up.

aluminum seats said:

The fact that Manning almost certainly used HGH to pull off his ridiculous 500 TD season or whatever it was kind of makes any tracking of Brady to Manning impossible. You can't track Manning's aging in any natural, accurate way.

But regardless, your broader point is spot on--when Brady loses a touch off his fastball, that razor-thin difference between excellent and not-excellent will disappear. The hope is that he fends it off for as long as possible, and when he does lose the fastball (accuracy and velocity) it will be reflected with a drop down to "very good" QB for a half season or whatever until he finally hangs it up.

Click to expand...

Manning's career should have been over in Indy.

robertweathers said:

Manning's career should have been over in Indy.

Click to expand...

Yes. Without using banned substances, that's when it would have logically ended.

He would've had far fewer yards and touchdowns passes, one fewer victory in the playoffs against Tom Brady and one fewer Super Bowl, but at least he would have been somewhat honorable.

KontradictioN said:

There is no doubt that Brady has excellent mechanics and a top notch training regimen and diet. There is also no doubt that they are part of the reason that he is still playing at a high level. However, the human body is still the human body and it doesn't recover from an NFL-style abuse from 300+ pound men at 40+ like it did in it's 20's and 30's. We saw signs of Brady beginning to wear down from the hits over the course of last season when the OL couldn't hold up. The Bye week did wonders for him. In the end, if anyone could do it, it would probably be Brady. However, I'm not counting on it. Like I said before, there's a reason why the list of guys who played at a top level after 40 is not a long one. They lose their fastball eventually and it will happen to Brady, too. Mechanics and diet be damned.



Manning was also arguably the worst quarterback in the NFL in the second half of 2014 and all of 2015, so I'm not sure that using him as an example bolsters your argument. He would have lost his job altogether if Assweiler didn't suck just as badly.

Click to expand...

I'm not suggesting Manning didn't suck I'm just saying i never thought am NFL QB could play with an arm that dead, for the very reasons you gave. Mannjngs arm was dead, Brady would have retired before trying to play with an arm that far gone, but imo he could lose some arm strength and continue to play at a high level just as long as he maintained his accuracy.

I do believe arm strength is still an important factor but I think that the instances where quarterbacks actually use every bit of it are fewer than we may think. It's definitely something I'm going to pay attention to this season but watching Brady in recent years I have seen him put plenty of throws into really tight windows and haven't seen any evidence of it becoming an issue for him.

Some thoughts during this thread.

"I heard Zolak mention this on 9.85" - Boy, that station has fallen fast.

This season is just Brady's next hope. His best hope is not going to be during a season that he misses a quarter of the games.

I'm still expecting two more SB wins in the next three from Brady. Double back to backs would be great.

Glad I only have to read what Zolak had to say. His voice is like sandpaper for the eardrums.

Look at the bright side with Brady's railroading. Suh will only have one chance to end Brady's career this season.

oldrover said:

Click to expand...

I didn't know analysts were allowed to drink on the job. Lol

Nope. Next question.

After the Giants two Super Bowls (after 10-6 and 9-7 seasons, respectively), I'd say anything can happen in any season. His best chance might be in a year when other teams in the hunt are decimated by injuries (see: 2015 Broncos).

Great Problem to have if you are the Patriots Brady ages like fine wine an if theirs no significant drop-off he's still our guy. That said if Jimmy G looks like the Second coming I would keep em booth...you never have enough good QB's.

Really hard to say, On the surface it may be is best but so much can change year to year that its impossible to predict. Maybe we draft some kid next year and he comes in and is an absolute stud right off the bat. The broncos won the superbowl with basically just a defense. Seems like QBs just lose it just like that Remember favre in 2010? The vikings were one of the NFC favorites that year. As a matter of fact I think the PAtriots knocked favre out of that game in foxboro