Is the 2016 season Brady's last best hope for a 5th Super Bowl Title?

Brady has shown no signs detectable by the average fan or mediot that his skills have begun to decline. If anything he looked younger and stronger than ever last year, which makes the way the regular season ended all the more infuriating...but that's water under the bridge...

As for this year, barring injuries to key players, there is one big unknown: can Garoppolo, with all of 31 Regular Season Passes under his belt, hand Brady a team that is at worst 2--2 going into Week 5?

Let's be honest: the biggest thing that Jimmy has going for him is that BB and Josh have kept him on the Roster for three seasons. Otherwise, he is a shot in the dark; we really know very little about him.

He could be awesome or he could be mediocre...he won't be "bad" because, well, he's still on the Roster. If he's mediocre, will the talent around him be enough to get the Pats to 2--2.? If he's awesome, 4--0 wouldn't be out of the question.

If Brady were starting from week 1, we'd look at this season beginning with three out of four games at home against marginal opponents and be expecting a 3--1 record as the worst case scenario and would probably be reasonably thinking we might be 4--0 at that point.

After Garoppolo, 1--3 would be a deep hole out of which Brady would have to dig. 0--4 would be close to, but not completely, impossible. If we think it will take 11 wins to take the division, 0--4 would mean going 11--1 after week four; 1--3 would mean 10--2.

Otherwise, Brady is entering relatively uncharted territory. He'll be 39 when the season starts. Favre took a team to the Playoffs with a 12--4 record at the age of 40. There's no reason to think that Brady doesn't have at least two more seasons left at a very high level...but, if we're honest, we should be expecting one, hoping for two and praying for "more."

Last year was his best shot at #5 until injuries kicked in. I think he has 2 years of elite play left then we will see a decline. He needs to get #5 by then or it will be much harder.

Well, they're stacked this year for sure, particularly if you believe (as I do) that the offensive line will be a strength (by later in the season/playoffs that is).

It will be interesting to see where Jimmy G is after these four games--whether he looks just OK, solid-as-in-tradebait-solid, or so sharp we'll have a decision to make when his contract runs out. My guess right now is that he will not be the successor to Brady, because I do think Brady will prove to be the freak still playing well after 40. So the next guy will be someone not currently on the roster. I think Jimmy goes 2-2 or 3-1, Brady goes the rest of the way with an excellent chance at a ring, and plays 3-4 more years after this one.

And at some point he'll get, and retire, with #5. (I should save this and review in a few years...)

You have people on this website who really believe he's gonna play till he's 45 lol

Chiuba E. Obele said:

I heard Zolak mention this on 9.85 shortly after Brady's rehearing was rejected by the 2nd Circuit Court. Zolak seems to think that given the makeup of this team, and given where Brady is at in his long career, this might be Tom's last best hope for a fifth Super Bowl ring.

Why are the odds in our favor now? For starters, you have a talented young defense (spearheaded by Collins, Hightower, and Butler) that's beginning to hit its stride and a high-powered offense stacked with many weapons (Gronk, Edelman, Amendola, Dion Lewis, Blount, Hogan, etc). Not to mention, Brady is coming off a prolific year that's almost unheard of for a quarterback his age.

So if there's ever a time to win another title, this might be Brady's year to do it. After that, according to Zolak, it's gonna become increasingly harder.

To start with, you have prominent vets who are slated to become Free Agents in 2017 (Bennet, Chris Long, Pot Roast). The Big Three on defense (Butler, Collins, Hightower) will be coming off their rookie contracts, and it may be unlikely (with the current salary cap) that all three will receive extensions.

And perhaps most controversially, as Brady turns 40 next year, there could be a noticeable drop-off in his performance on the field. If with so much as a gradual decline, Brady may not be able to win games solely on his own.

So that Zolak's opinion in a nutshell. Do you agree with his assessment? Is there a need for urgency?

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As the Patriots have proved, when you are talking about windows, it's best to jump out of one.

A man named Brady said:

You have people on this website who really believe he's gonna play till he's 45 lol

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Don't think anyone said that on this thread...

I think he has a 2 year window or as long as the current offense is pretty much in place and healthy.
He's too old to be in top form if we need an additional year to re-tool another offense ... which would be 4 years from now.

robertweathers said:

Skit-Zo

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LMAO!!!

A man named Brady said:

You have people on this website who really believe he's gonna play till he's 45 lol

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I think most people on this board think barring a major injury he will continue to be a top 5 QB for a couple of more years. Based on the structure of the contract, the Patriots do as well.

After that we are in uncharted territory. I don't know of any QBs who at 42 were top 5 with heavy workloads.

While I don't think he will be a top 5 Qb at 45, with the way he takes care of himself its very possible at 42 or 43 he is putting up numbers similar to what he did early in his career.... 60% comp, 3500yds 25 TDs 90 rating.

The only thing that would cause a deterioration in Brady's game would be his arm going, and I don't see any evidence of that at all, and I don't think it's going to happen anytime soon, I think the changes he made to his training are the reason it looks as strong as it's ever been. Unlike most QBs Brady went to a training regimine based upon flexibility, pliability, and core over traditional strength/weight training, and the results are clear and positive for him. He's not suffering from shoulder injuries or other arm injuries and the only thing that will change the situation would be those injuries. Brady's game isn't based upon some deteriorating athleticism it's based upon his game knowledge and accuracy and as long as he is game smart and accurate he will continue to thrive, and he will continue to prove everyone who keeps insisting he's on the verge of decline dead wrong. That said I'm sure that we will have to put up with the "Bradys almost done" garbage for the rest of his career.

robertweathers said:

I think most people on this board think barring a major injury he will continue to be a top 5 QB for a couple of more years. Based on the structure of the contract, the Patriots do as well.

After that we are in uncharted territory. I don't know of any QBs who at 42 were top 5 with heavy workloads.

While I don't think he will be a top 5 Qb at 45, with the way he takes care of himself its very possible at all if at 42 or 43 he is putting up numbers similar to what he did early in his career.... 60% comp, 3500yds 25 TDs 90 rating.

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Yep. Another aspect to this are the all-time QB records, which I now very much want him to get.

Brady will be 39 this year. If he plays this year and then 3 more seasons he'll be 42. Let's say for the sake of argument he retires then. To reach #1 on the all-time lists, he would need:

--13,912 passing yards, or 3710 over the next 3.75 seasons. Over the last six years he's passed for an average of 4531 yards. This is very achievable.

--112 passing TDs. A little harder. Over the last six years he's averaged 34 TDs. If he completes an average of 30 TDs (prorated to 24 this year), that's 114.

--Wins. He needs 15 for the top spot. I think he might get it. He already has the most playoff wins, of course.

Add another Super Bowl or two, and away we go. And if he's a little short on any of this, what the hell, play at 43.

(Edit: typo in wins)

Brady needs 15 regular season wins to break the record Favre and Manning share at 186, he only needs 7 wins to break the overall total wins Manning hold at 200. He will break the overall wins total this season and the regular season wins total in 2017. He already owns the playoff wins record at 22, conference championship wins at 6, conference championship appearances at 10, sms Super Bowl appearances at 6, Super Bowl wins is the one that means the most and he will break that before retiring. He's going to go down as the GOAT and is really already there.

In Brady's earlier years, I'll admit, I sometimes had doubts about whether he could save us from losing a game we were badly losing. Not because I didn't have faith in him, but because we were losing so badly it didn't seem possible we could win. And yet TB proved me wrong over and over.

I've learned my lesson since those dozen or more years ago: Never Bet Against Brady. TB thinks he can play at a high level til he's 45, I absolutely believe him and I'll be cheering him on all the way and never doubt that he can't until he can't.

GrogansArmy said:

In Brady's earlier years, I'll admit, I sometimes had doubts about whether he could save us from losing a game we were badly losing. Not because I didn't have faith in him, but because we were losing so badly it didn't seem possible we could win. And yet TB proved me wrong over and over.

I've learned my lesson since those dozen or more years ago: Never Bet Against Brady. TB thinks he can play at a high level til he's 45, I absolutely believe him and I'll be cheering him on all the way and never doubt that he can't until he can't.

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Yeah, I mean I'm doubtful about 45, but barring major injury I don't think many doubt the possibility he's going strong at 42 or 43, so is another year or two really "lol" worthy, even if it doesn't happen? No.

aluminum seats said:

Yeah, I mean I'm doubtful about 45, but barring major injury I don't think many doubt the possibility he's going strong at 42 or 43, so is another year or two really "lol" worthy, even if it doesn't happen? No.

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I don't think 45 is out of the question if the Pats consistently wield a decent OL. Brady's greatness isn't based on his athleticism. It a result of an insane work ethic, attention to detail and an incredible memory and football IQ. No one prepares their mind and body like Tom Brady.

Galeb said:

I don't think 45 is out of the question if the Pats consistently wield a decent OL. Brady's greatness isn't based on his athleticism. It a result of an insane work ethic, attention to detail and an incredible memory and football IQ. No one prepares their mind and body like Tom Brady.

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That's all true, but his arm is also stronger than a lot of people give him credit for. He will still be very smart and be able to read defenses, but if the ball is coming into those tight spots slower than it used to, it won't matter. A split second difference is all it takes in the NFL for a completion to be turned into an interception a lot of times. In the end, there's a reason why there isn't a wealth of top quarterbacks who have played at a high level into their mid-40's. Could Brady do it? Sure. But it's unlikely.

Ivan said:

The only thing that would cause a deterioration in Brady's game would be his arm going, and I don't see any evidence of that at all, and I don't think it's going to happen anytime soon, I think the changes he made to his training are the reason it looks as strong as it's ever been. Unlike most QBs Brady went to a training regimine based upon flexibility, pliability, and core over traditional strength/weight training, and the results are clear and positive for him. He's not suffering from shoulder injuries or other arm injuries and the only thing that will change the situation would be those injuries. Brady's game isn't based upon some deteriorating athleticism it's based upon his game knowledge and accuracy and as long as he is game smart and accurate he will continue to thrive, and he will continue to prove everyone who keeps insisting he's on the verge of decline dead wrong. That said I'm sure that we will have to put up with the "Bradys almost done" garbage for the rest of his career.

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People have been saying he's almost done since 2008. Eventually they'll be right.

Happy Birthday btw.

(Not your Bday? I'll just keep saying it until I'm right. )

KontradictioN said:

That's all true, but his arm is also stronger than a lot of people give him credit for. He will still be very smart and be able to read defenses, but if the ball is coming into those tight spots slower than it used to, it won't matter. A split second difference is all it takes in the NFL for a completion to be turned into an interception a lot of times. In the end, there's a reason why there isn't a wealth of top quarterbacks who have played at a high level into their mid-40's. Could Brady do it? Sure. But it's unlikely.

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Tom Brady has decent natural arm strength, but it is his mechanics that set him apart. Not only are his mechanics designed for maximum velocity and quick release, they are designed to limit wear and tear. He also conditions specifically to make his muscles, ligaments and tendons more supple and flexible than for shear strength. No QB in the NFL has taken the ecclectic, intensive approach to sustaining performance and performance longevity as Tom Brady has.

QBs are better protected than they've ever been, and if Brady avoids serious injury, I think his playing at a high level till 45 is less unlikely than most think.

TB12

KontradictioN said:

That's all true, but his arm is also stronger than a lot of people give him credit for. He will still be very smart and be able to read defenses, but if the ball is coming into those tight spots slower than it used to, it won't matter. A split second difference is all it takes in the NFL for a completion to be turned into an interception a lot of times. In the end, there's a reason why there isn't a wealth of top quarterbacks who have played at a high level into their mid-40's. Could Brady do it? Sure. But it's unlikely.

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Looking at what Manning got away with I think it's less of view an issue than I would have thought before this. I have seen high school QBs with more arm strength than Manning demonstrated all season and he somehow was able to get away with it. While I agree that the loss of arm strength will be the primary indicator of decline for Brady I think he will have to lose a substantial amount for it to make a significant difference, as he really doesn't rely on the deep ball so if he can keep his velocity up on the mid range throws he will be fine for some time to come.

Best chance? Maybe. Last hope? No.