Never punt... and always onside kick?!?!

This high school coach does it... won two state championships. And guys like Scott Pioli are picking his brain.

NFL teams pick the brain of high school coach who never punts

Thoughts? Comments? Brickbats? LOL (just chumming the waters here in the offseason)

The no punt thing would be intriguing to watch but I doubt it would be successful enough to stick.

It's tried and works in high school because the risk of not punting is much less. There's a difference between high school punters who average 20 yards a punt and an NFL punter who averages 45.

sb1 said:

The no punt thing would be intriguing to watch but I doubt it would be successful enough to stick.

It's tried and works in high school because the risk of not punting is much less. There's a difference between high school punters who average 20 yards a punt and an NFL punter who averages 45.

Click to expand...

Right. Special teams are much much less automatic when you're not NFL caliber.

There have been several studies done on this very question.

50% of the posters on this board read them after the 4th and 2 game.

There was one study done by IIRC Brandeis that statistically justified going for it on 4th down.

I'll need to dig it up

Kevin Kelley: the high school coach who never punts and almost always onside kicks


It was talked about elsewhere, too, but I can't find that other thread.

Do that in the NFL in your own field and welcome to the top 3 of the draft.

Depends. But generally no. In high school punting is so bad you are talking about gaining potentially 20 yards worth of feild position worth against another possession.

In the NFL you can put them at the 20 or risk them being at the 50. It is a SAFE (key word) 35-30 yards gained every punt. It makes sense to do it against a bad team but you should beat a bad team anyway so why add the risk of it back firing.

Comparing high school football to the NFL is meaningless. It is an entirely different sport.

comparing NFL football pre-Goodell to NFL football in the Goodell era is meaningless.

It is an entirely different "sport".

IIRC, ir was Bill Simmons who wrote about never punting and going for it on 4th down. This was several years ago.

Ah, FOUND IT! It was a 2006 column by Greg Easterbrook.

Easterbrook: Stop punting! - ESPN Page 2

Another good article with more recent data for 4th and 1 and 4th and 2

What the numbers say about 4th-and-short decisions.

I don't think the argument is if you can convert but obviously more about managing the risk if you don't.

Part of the high school argument is to save the trouble of coaching traditional kicking plays.

I'm not sure how much sense that makes even there, because you have to teach how to defend them. That part of the argument would make even less sense in the pros.

Anyhow, I'm thinking back yet again to what I regard as one of the most significant and instructive games in football history -- the AFCC vs. the Steelers in which the Pats got a 17-point swing on STs, scored only 10 points on offense, and won by 7. On the one hand, since the Pats' offense was so ineffective, the field position gain from punting was surely worthwhile. On the other hand, one punt play went very badly for the Steelers.

I think 20 yard moonshots on kickoffs would be interesting ... the ball is free while in the air and 10 coverage guys converging on the poor bastards looking up in the air

high schools typically have lousy kickers and punters

BobDigital said:

Depends. But generally no. In high school punting is so bad you are talking about gaining potentially 20 yards worth of feild position worth against another possession.

In the NFL you can put them at the 20 or risk them being at the 50. It is a SAFE (key word) 35-30 yards gained every punt. It makes sense to do it against a bad team but you should beat a bad team anyway so why add the risk of it back firing.

Click to expand...

Sorta like when the Patriots tried the surprise onside kick against the Eagles, contributing to them losing HFA in the playoffs and potentially a 5 super bowl.

My 8 year old plays Madden this way.

tasmlab said:

My 8 year old plays Madden this way.

Click to expand...

but what's his conversion rate?

robertweathers said:

Another good article with more recent data for 4th and 1 and 4th and 2

What the numbers say about 4th-and-short decisions.

I don't think the argument is if you can convert but obviously more about managing the risk if you don't.

Click to expand...

Woefully slanted article that talks about how steady everything is by, essentially, ignoring 1/3 of the seasons. That's the problem with these "go for it!" articles. They always end up having to shade the data and, while that should tell the authors something, it never does.

Deus Irae said:

Woefully slanted article that talks about how steady everything is by, essentially, ignoring 1/3 of the seasons. That's the problem with these "go for it!" articles. They always end up having to shade the data and, while that should tell the authors something, it never does.

Click to expand...

Yea a few more years would have been nice but like any statistically-based article, the data is always under scrutiny....

robertweathers said:

Yea a few more years would have been nice but like any statistically-based article, the data is always under scrutiny....

Click to expand...

I'm fine with teams going for it more often on 4th down. My issue with it is the obsession that the stat geeks have with ignoring context (i.e. momentum).

if a team or teams had more onside kick chances, I would expect the success rate to drop.