Pats Favorites to Win Super Bowl

Rusty Griswold said:

Even if you don't appreciate soccer, it was just really fun to watch.

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(sorry)

SlowGettingUp said:

I've never understood why they've never sprung for a dual-threat RB that doesn't loudly telegraph either run or pass on every down by their very presence. Someone that can both run between the tackles and catch the ball out of the backfield.

We might have the best zone blocking interior line we have ever had given the very athletic (albeit lighter) interior OL they can now deploy if they want. Need to take advantage of that somehow.

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Nailed it. For that very reason, I thought Forte would be a slam dunk here.

IMO, in our 2 SB losses and 3 out of the 4 AFC Title game losses, have more so been about that little problem tied never getting to playaction, due to shotgun spread/finesse abuse.

I cannot stand the site of it anymore against the better Ds. The key is, do not sub the backs based on what kind of a play you want to run.

A 2 back set would eliminate this problem. It would take away the X or the two TE set, sure, but if you use Brown and Lewis on the field, all the way down the field on a drive (generally speaking), the defense can never guess so easily, what the play is.

Brady can beat up on mediocre or bad Ds, which is half the league at least with all these teams in cap hells and rebuilding, but it's the good Ds where we need these kinds of formations.

Donald Brown can run inside and out. Lewis, not as much, but it doesn't matter if you have the 2 back set.

Rusty Griswold said:

Nailed it. For that very reason, I thought Forte would be a slam dunk here.

IMO, in our 2 SB losses and 3 out of the 4 AFC Title game losses, have more so been about that little problem tied never getting to playaction, due to shotgun spread/finesse abuse.

I cannot stand the site of it anymore against the better Ds. The key is, do not sub the backs based on what kind of a play you want to run.

A 2 back set would eliminate this problem. It would take away the X or the two TE set, sure, but if you use Brown and Lewis on the field, all the way down the field on a drive (generally speaking), the defense can never guess so easily, what the play is.

Brady can beat up on mediocre or bad Ds, which is half the league at least with all these teams in cap hells and rebuilding, but it's the good Ds where we need these kinds of formations.

Donald Brown can run inside and out. Lewis, not as much, but it doesn't matter if you have the 2 back set.

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If we manage to keep Dion Lewis healthy (huge if, given his history), then that's exactly the kind of player he is. I had more confidence in him than any of our other backs in short yardage situations last year.

Rusty Griswold said:

I gotta tell ya, I am a casual English Premier League fan, and I have had a blast following the mythical Jamie Vardy's season.

Even if you don't appreciate soccer, it was just really fun to watch.

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Same here man, it was a great ride start to finish. ****, pretty sure you could get better odds on aliens making contact with the human race than Leicester City winning the EPL. There's too much parity in the NFL to make anything close to an accurate comparison, but it would be like if the entire Browns' starting lineup went on strike, and their backups went undefeated.

oldrover said:

(sorry)

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haha

Again, disagree, but to each his own.

People don't appreciate how difficult it is not only generate a quality scoring opportunity, but some of those goals scored in that league are insane. Vardy alone had some incredible goals this year and he was essentially a 29 year old rookie.

On some goals scored at home, the noise registered on the Richter Scale. I am not kidding.
Even if you just had it on casually on a Sat or Sun morning with your coffee, it was great theater.

BradyFTW! said:

Same here man, it was a great ride start to finish. ****, pretty sure you could get better odds on aliens making contact with the human race than Leicester City winning the EPL. There's too much parity in the NFL to make anything close to an accurate comparison, but it would be like if the entire Browns' starting lineup went on strike, and their backups went undefeated.

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Pretty much. And, that right there is why Spygate and Deflatgate exist. Goodell has no way of saying "any team can win a title in the cap era NFL."

The parity is BAD parity. Goodell wants the good kind. That's the difference.

I would say 70% of the NFL teams right now are rebuilding, either finally doing it the right way or still kinda still cheating the right way to do it, which is to take 3 offseasons, clear contracts, draft well and then develop, finding a QB.

It's kinda true, but what's happened since the Lockout of 2011, is that some teams cheated their teambuilds and didn't take advantage of nailing drafts, keeping costs down, and having really good players in house that can have some contract control.

There is amazing value in rookie contracts. Look at B's draft yields since 2010. The best in the league, hands down. It's why he had to deal Chandler Jones and run with the 2nd rd pick and Cooper.

Arizona is screwed needing to pay Calais Campbell and now Chandler Jones. Whopps! I hope they win it all in 2016, because after this season, they're in a worse cap position, even with Fitzgerald likely retiring.

And, that doesn't count the Joe Flacco Problem, where he got hot in the 2012 postseason, dumb Ozzie forgot to budget and FLacco bent Ozzie over the sink for 20 mil per, essentially spiking the QB price all throughout the league.

So, basically the Pats are being punished because BB's GM genius is 3 and 4 steps ahead.

No London investor is going to put up money for the Jaguars, when you have the English Premier League going on at the same time in England, with more eyeballs on those games than an NFL team like the crappy Jaguars.

We're being used. Goodell is lying to the public about supposed Pats rules violations, to try to weaken them.

Rusty Griswold said:

haha

Again, disagree, but to each his own.

People don't appreciate how difficult it is not only generate a quality scoring opportunity, but some of those goals scored in that league are insane.

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Maybe it's me, but whenever I watch soccer, the score is either 1-0...



...or 0-0.

SlowGettingUp said:

From Mike Reiss:

Despite Tom Brady's pending four-game suspension, the New England Patriotsare once again the favorites to win Super Bowl LI, according to updated odds released by the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

With the 2016 NFL draft officially in the books, the Westgate SuperBook has released updated Super Bowl odds, as well as lines on games of the year, divisional odds and season win totals.

The Patriots are favored at 6-1, while the Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelersand Green Bay Packers are tied at 8-1. The Carolina Panthers, at 9-1, are the only other team with odds of better than 14-1.​

The earlier odds (before the draft) were a bit longer, so apparently the draft improved the bookies' view:

Odds posted for 2017 Super Bowl — Steelers, Pats, Seahawks co-favorites

Some other odds here:

Sports Betting News and Vegas Odds

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Lmao

mgteich said:

To be clear, what you are saying is that it doesn't matter whether you have the best team, or close with a great schedule. All that matter is whether you WILL win. if that's true, we should all copy some poster and simply predict a 19-0 season and stop the speculation.
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The reality is that it does INDEED matter that we have the best team. Since fans tend to overvalue their team's chances, it does INDEED give us more hope if folks actually put their own money down on the patriots.

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1) "Having the best team," and how Las Vegas casinos lay their odds are 2 very different things.

The general public prefers to bet on teams that are both on winning streaks and also popular. The fact that the New England Patriots are getting attention at the window means absolutely nothing, as it has become the norm almost every single year.

2) What measure are you using to determine that we're definitely the best team? Past records? Future predictors? A crystal ball? In whose opinion is it that we're the "best team?" There's no objective way to measure that, especially since it hasn't happened yet. We don't even know if our star player will be in the lineup for 1/4 of the season or not, let alone all of the injuries, calls, and bounces of the ball that will help to determine who wins the Super Bowl in February.

For the record, I agree with you that it's comforting to see people laying their money down, but my point is that the same thing happens almost every single year. What year, aside from maybe 2009-2010 were the Patriots NOT one of the top favored teams? The Packers are another team lately who has received a lot of betting attention in terms of good SB odds, but haven't come away with much.

Excellent! Just returned from Las Vegas. Got the Pats at 7 - 1 on Friday

If I had to bet it all I'd bet on the Pats no matter who I was a fan of.

SlowGettingUp said:

From Mike Reiss:

...the New England Patriots are once again the favorites to win Super Bowl LI...​

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A Jets fan would have to be a fool not to drop a few thousand on the Jets to win it all at 40-1, especially now that Geno is healthy again.

long distance said:

in any case looks like AFC title goes through Pittsburgh
just looked at their schedule and we most probably need to win there at least once
(to get home field or win title game @P)

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tom brady owns the steelers so im not worried about them at all.

I can't help but recall Hans Solo exclaiming: "Never tell me the odds!"

No respect from Vegas either. This trolling HAS TO STOP!

long distance said:

in any case looks like AFC title goes through Pittsburgh
just looked at their schedule and we most probably need to win there at least once
(to get home field or win title game @P)

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You underestimate the AFC south at your peril. All four teams there will give Pittsburgh a good game.

supafly said:

Nice to see, but we go through this every single year and it generally hasn't produced the results we'd like.

How many times since say, 2005, have the NEP been favored to win the SB? I'm guessing about 75 percent of the time.

Still--it's much better than the opposite. At least they aren't 250 to 1 odds, like some teams. At the end of the day though, it doesn't mean a damn thing.

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Sure, but if the Pats are always around 6-1, they should win once every six years...

50-yard-line said:

Sure, but if the Pats are always around 6-1, they should win once every six years...

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How in the world are you coming to that conclusion??!!

So, by your logic, if a racehorse is getting 5-1 odds versus the rest of his competition in that race, he should be winning every fifth race? That's not how this works.

When was the last off season when the Pats didn't have the shortest odds? No other team has come close the Pat's consistency since Brady took the helm.