The 2016 Team Is All But Set, Unless

supafly said:

I'm hoping that you're right about keeping both LBs. I am not as optimistic as you are about paying top dollar to both. They always have the option of tagging one of them, so I'm simply hoping that we'll still have 2 more years with them together in a worst case scenario. Either way, it would make us all feel better if they can extend one or the other sometime soon.

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I think they are in much, better shape going forward than people realize. If they re sign Hightower they can tag Collins and will have the 3 big defensive free agents locked up until at least 2018. They might lose Sheard but you can't have everything and they will have around 60 million left to make deals with. They generally don't have trouble keeping their own free agents and will that kind of cap room I don't see that being a problem, especially when many of them, e.g...Ninkovich, Branch, Solder.....really don't want to leave., After this season they will have considerable leverage with Amendola to get a new deal done if they want, and can release him and save a decent chunk against the cap at that time. Releasing him now makes no sense at all. As far as the rest go, e.g..Ryan, Harmon, etc....their value will depend upon how they play this season and should be revisited later.

PatsBoy12 said:

I'm not. If you look closely at the roster, BB has already made contingencies for a lot of the players you listed. In fact, he talked about looking ahead as being part of the draft strategy in the presser he held yesterday. Collins, High, Butler and Sheard have to be locked up. Butler is restricted, so a team would have to give up a first-rounder for him (someone confirm). Matt Slater will be on this team unless there is a massive fall off in his play in 2016, which I don't see (other than injury). I'd like to somehow be able to retain Ninko and Bennett. I'd be upset to see Ninko go anywhere.

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Good point, but they will have some significant CAP room to get hopefully most back.
DW Toys

Rusty Griswold said:

Agreed.. One thing I noticed, and this isn't out of the norm for BB drafts, but he went STs heavy on this one with Jones and Mitchell coming to mind right away.

We have not had a good kick return game in what seems like 2007 with Ellis Hobbs, maybe 2010 with Brandon Tate, but that should change. Jones has legit vision and speed on kick offs or punt returns. He could be electric and BB may have a long term, stable and cheap answer for a really good nickel player.

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IMHO, Cyrus Jones is, in fact, a real stud returner. However, it is more about vision, football savvy, and most especially just a certain attitude that he brings (nobody has a bigger chip on their shoulder than Jones). He just has that certain something (maybe it is fearlessness?) as a punt returner, and no moment is too big for him. However, while his speed is good to very good (a 4.49 40 yard dash), he certainly isn't as fast as the Auburn free agent CB, Jonathan Jones (110-meter hurdles national high school champion) who ran a 4.33 40 yard dash. However, Gwedd is probably the primary expert on Alabama players, I would like to hear him weigh in.

PatsBoy12 said:

I'm not. If you look closely at the roster, BB has already made contingencies for a lot of the players you listed. In fact, he talked about looking ahead as being part of the draft strategy in the presser he held yesterday. Collins, High, Butler and Sheard have to be locked up. Butler is restricted, so a team would have to give up a first-rounder for him (someone confirm). Matt Slater will be on this team unless there is a massive fall off in his play in 2016, which I don't see (other than injury). I'd like to somehow be able to retain Ninko and Bennett. I'd be upset to see Ninko go anywhere.

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Agreed. Sheard is leverage on Nink, so is McClellin and vice versa. Hightower, Collins and Butler are the ones he's already budgeted for.

I would not be shocked if Hightower's deal comes quietly here soon.

I would expect the Patriots FO to spend a great deal of time over the next 8 months talking with the reps of their impending free agents to see what parameters they are looking at and signing those they want to keep who are looking at reasonable money. This last free agency was notable for throwing big money at average players and that still make signing those who will be unrestricted much more difficult, Logan Ryan is a good example of this. Ryan is a good corner and I'm sure the Patriots would like to keep him at around 4/20 10 guaranteed, however if he has a good season he will be looking at twice that in free agency, and the Patriots should walk away from the table if they want anywhere near that. They have a lot of work to do but the cap space and leverage to do it. Should be interesting.

Ivan said:

I think they are in much, better shape going forward than people realize. If they re sign Hightower they can tag Collins and will have the 3 big defensive free agents locked up until at least 2018. They might lose Sheard but you can't have everything and they will have around 60 million left to make deals with. They generally don't have trouble keeping their own free agents and will that kind of cap room I don't see that being a problem, especially when many of them, e.g...Ninkovich, Branch, Solder.....really don't want to leave., After this season they will have considerable leverage with Amendola to get a new deal done if they want, and can release him and save a decent chunk against the cap at that time. Releasing him now makes no sense at all. As far as the rest go, e.g..Ryan, Harmon, etc....their value will depend upon how they play this season and should be revisited later.

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60 million won't go very far. After all, you have already spent $20M on Collins and Hightower. This is hardly a success since you lose Sheard. It will $10M just to fill the roster (only 30 are signed). So half the $60M is already gone.

And how much do you think that we'll have to pay Butler? Even if you are able to pay Butler only $10M. you are down to $10M with the following unsigned. You need $5M or so for various items late in camp.

So your budget is $5M for the following or their replacements.

Bennett, Ninkovich, Long, Knighton, Branch, Harmon, Ryan

mgteich said:

60 million won't go very far. After all, you have already spent $20M on Collins and Hightower. This is hardly a success since you lose Sheard. It will $10M just to fill the roster (only 30 are signed). So half the $60M is already gone.

And how much do you think that we'll have to pay Butler? Even if you are able to pay Butler only $10M. you are down to $10M with the following unsigned. You need $5M or so for various items late in camp.

So your budget is $5M for the following or their replacements.

Bennett, Ninkovich, Long, Knighton, Branch, Harmon, Ryan

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Disagree completely on this, Belichick only had 15 million to work with, this off-season and made a large number of signings out of it. How far the money goes depends upon how the deals are structured. The original number I heard was 70 million and I took 10 off for signing Hightower, and would expect Collins to knock off another 10 on a tag, that leaves 50 million and Butler doesn't hit UFA until after 2017 and they can tag him then if they wish. Additionally the 70 million was before they restructure deals our release players, I have no doubt they can carve out considerable cap space off they need to our just decide they want to. I still don't expect them to go sign a 100 million dollar player so they will be splitting the remainder among those they decide to keep. Bottom line for me is that people here can gnash their teeth and wring their hands all they want but I think they are in great shape.

Ivan said:

Disagree completely on this, Belichick only had 15 million to work with, this off-season and made a large number of signings out of it. How far the money goes depends upon how the deals are structured. The original number I heard was 70 million and I took 10 off for signing Hightower, and would expect Collins to knock off another 10 on a tag, that leaves 50 million and Butler doesn't hit UFA until after 2017 and they can tag him then if they wish. Additionally the 70 million was before they restructure deals our release players, I have no doubt they can carve out considerable cap space off they need to our just decide they want to. I still don't expect them to go sign a 100 million dollar player so they will be splitting the remainder among those they decide to keep. Bottom line for me is that people here can gnash their teeth and wring their hands all they want but I think they are in great shape.

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Plus, it's very possible he can have leverage on Long for a cheap, 1 year extension maybe mid season if Long loves it here and all looks good. He's not going to want to keep bouncing around at the end of his career, possibly Knighton as well, although the latter appears to want to make money as much as try to play on a good team, so I am less positive about keeping him.

PS I didn't read your whole post, as it was far too long. lmao

Ivan said:

Disagree completely on this, Belichick only had 15 million to work with, this off-season and made a large number of signings out of it. How far the money goes depends upon how the deals are structured. The original number I heard was 70 million and I took 10 off for signing Hightower, and would expect Collins to knock off another 10 on a tag, that leaves 50 million and Butler doesn't hit UFA until after 2017 and they can tag him then if they wish. Additionally the 70 million was before they restructure deals our release players, I have no doubt they can carve out considerable cap space off they need to our just decide they want to. I still don't expect them to go sign a 100 million dollar player so they will be splitting the remainder among those they decide to keep. Bottom line for me is that people here can gnash their teeth and wring their hands all they want but I think they are in great shape.

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Let's look at 2 situations.

The tag for Collins will be closer to $15 than $10M.
Butler is am RFA, who it will likely cost at least $10M to match.
So, you numbers are already understated by about $14M.

We are in OK shape if we have no problem losing Sheard and Butler.

Rusty Griswold said:

Plus, it's very possible he can have leverage on Long for a cheap, 1 year extension maybe mid season if Long loves it here and all looks good. He's not going to want to keep bouncing around at the end of his career, possibly Knighton as well, although the latter appears to want to make money as much as try to play on a good team, so I am less positive about keeping him.

PS I didn't read your whole post, as it was far too long. lmao

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What can I say I just prefer short posts that are to the point, the ones that ramble hit on multiple points and require lengthy responses. As far as guys like Long go I agree, there will be a number of guys they can keep on short extensions and I would expect little trouble getting those done. There will also be guys like Ryan and imo Sheard looking to cash in and they will be much tougher.

mgteich said:

Let's look at 2 situations.

The tag for Collins will be closer to $15 than $10M.
Butler is am RFA, who it will likely cost at least $10M to match.
So, you numbers are already understated by about $14M.

We are in OK shape if we have no problem losing Sheard and Butler.

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I would have to check LB franchise tags to know but I don't believe any team will give up firsts and 10 million for Butler

Ivan said:

I would have to check LB franchise tags to know but I don't believe any team will give up firsts and 10 million for Butler

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Hmm

So, you think that no one would trade a low first for Butler, if Butler agreed with them to a $10M 4-5 year contract? Really?

Ivan said:

I would have to check LB franchise tags to know but I don't believe any team will give up firsts and 10 million for Butler

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$14.129M is the 2016 franchise tag for LB's.

mgteich said:

Hmm

So, you think that no one would trade a low first for Butler, if Butler agreed with them to a $10M 4-5 year contract? Really?

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I like Butler but if someone wants to give him 50 million and their first to The Patriots then he's gone. And the same goes for Collins, if someone wants to give 2 firsts and 90 million to Collins then he's gone too.

So Butler brings one first, Collins 2 firsts, Garrapolo the first overall which they parlay into 2 firsts this year and 2 more the next two years, as well as the Patriots first. That gives them 6 firsts next draft. This will be the greatest draft ever cousins.

DW Toys

Ivan said:

I would have to check LB franchise tags to know but I don't believe any team will give up firsts and 10 million for Butler

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If Butler has an elite/All-Pro CB year w/ INTs and comp % vs he will fetch a late 1st rounder.

The 2016 team is all but set unless you want to run the ball.

Urgent said:

The 2016 team is all but set unless you want to run the ball.

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I'm hoping for a 2014 WR type of season where the need was there and it was pretty clear, but the team lucked out on the injury front. Either that, or maybe a nice pick up after the first round of cuts. Maybe Foster comes into camp and surprises too.

supafly said:

Why would anyone be concerned with re-upping a backup QB who has 2 years remaining on his rookie contract, and much more importantly, how you do even begin to try and assess financial compensation?

He has two very limited preseasons under his belt where we basically saw nothing. What in the world are you going to pay him based on that? Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't belong on any list of priorities right now, and that probably doesn't even change at this point next year. There are too many variables in play including the next two years of Tom Brady's performance, how Garoppolo progresses (or regresses), and finally...the potential development of Brissett.

Guy who DO belong on the list that you have omitted are core special teamers like Slater.

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Every word out of the Patriots is that they are pleased with his development.

Garoppolo's about to have the opportunity to showcase his abilities with an offense that is loaded, behind an offensive line coached by Dante Scarnecchia. An extension in 2016, that may come together after week 4, will be relatively inexpensive compared to the 2017 off season.

Brady's window is closing. The Patriots would be well served to have Garoppolo signed to the end of Brady's deal which concludes after the 2019 season. Maybe it's just me, but Brady's age cannot be ignored and his ability to endure hits diminishes with each passing year. Knowing they have a dependable backup is critical as Brady tries to play into his 40s.

The way teams throw money at quarterbacks who might be the franchise guy, locking up Garoppolo at a team friendly number for 2018 and 2019 rewards the player and keeps the Patriots out of a 2017 contract year situation in which his agent will advise him to test free agency.

robertweathers said:

If Butler has an elite/All-Pro CB year w/ INTs and comp % vs he will fetch a late 1st rounder.

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When is the last time a team gave a first for a restricted free agent?

Just curious.

patsbrasilpatriotas said:

Im worried about 2017 ...

Rob Ninkovich
Martellus Bennett
Chris Long
Matt Slater
Sebastian Vollmer
Terrance Knighton
LeGarrette Blount
Jabaal Sheard
Donta Hightower
Brandon Bolden
Jamie Collins
Duron Harmon
Justin Coleman
Malcolm Butler

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Don't worry about the future, stay in the Now.