Football Outsiders on Martellus Bennett

Really good article here - a must read.

Belichick zigging (going bigger on offense) when the rest of the League zags (going faster)

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Film Room: Martellus Bennett

Gronk, Bennett, Edelman and Lewis are going to be a quadruple-matchup nightmare. Defenses will be forced to go big to stop the two massive tight ends, and then the two smaller, shifty players will make them look like giant sloths.

SlowGettingUp said:

Gronk, Bennett, Edelman and Lewis are going to be a quadruple-matchup nightmare. Defenses will be forced to go big to stop the two massive tight ends, and then the two smaller, shifty players will make them look like giant sloths.

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Honestly a team can just shut that down but flooding the middle of the field as usual. A team with a lot of good man 2 man players will be able to stop us if we have no outside downfield presence at WR.

Marqui said:

Honestly a team can just shut that down but flooding the middle of the field.

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Then they line up or motion Gronk and/or Bennett out wide. Remember they are in base not nickel because of the run threat. Gronk can not be left one-on-one, so their biggest corner plus a safety or the like gets assigned to him. Who takes Edelman, Bennett and Lewis?

At the end of the day, Brady is not at his best throwing outside downfield. (Not saying he can't make these throws, just they are not his comparative strength). Quick plus big receivers, short and intermediate, suits his style better.

Marqui said:

Honestly a team can just shut that down but flooding the middle of the field as usual. A team with a lot of good man 2 man players will be able to stop us if we have no outside downfield presence at WR.

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Right because our offense has always sucked..........

Marqui said:

Honestly a team can just shut that down but flooding the middle of the field as usual. A team with a lot of good man 2 man players will be able to stop us if we have no outside downfield presence at WR.

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Nonsense. No team has been able to stop this offense since week 4 of 2014 when the team has been at full strength.

Good piece--thanks for posting. One of things I love here is how the board vacuums up all Pats-related news from everywhere. So convenient.

But good stuff here..I think saying that Belichick now plans to "rely on the run" is a bit of a leap, but Bennet definitely opens up some interesting possibilities.

Marqui said:

Honestly a team can just shut that down but flooding the middle of the field as usual. A team with a lot of good man 2 man players will be able to stop us if we have no outside downfield presence at WR.

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Let's assume:

• A base defense.
• A Pats' RB who isn't Lewis.
  
• 5 wide.
  
• 2 LBs dropping into zone plus a 3rd LB who can cover a non-Lewis RB, who aren't mentioned further below.

How many teams have all of:

• A CB who can cover Edelman?
• A safety who can cover Gronk and/or a CB who can cover Gronk plus a safety who can cover Hogan?
• Another safety who can cover Bennett?

I'm not seeing it, no matter which way the two zone LBs are shaded.

aluminum seats said:

I think saying that Belichick now plans to "rely on the run" is a bit of a leap

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Especially given the relative lack of investment in RBs.

Marqui said:

Honestly a team can just shut that down but flooding the middle of the field as usual. A team with a lot of good man 2 man players will be able to stop us if we have no outside downfield presence at WR.

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If you are going to be continue to be a doom and gloom contrarian at least do a better job than this.

FourierSeries said:

Nonsense. No team has been able to stop this offense since week 4 of 2014 when the team has been at full strength.

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Guess he missed the first half of the season when the team was pretty healthy and had no outside WR because LaFell was out the first 7 weeks and the offense was still putting up 30+

In the end of the day, it will be business as usual, Pats scoring in the 34-41 range, if the defense plays as expected this will be enough to win and cover the spread, they will have 1-2 stinkers during the season and 2 games when the other team will play better, and end up with a 12-4, 13-3 record.

Fencer said:

Let's assume:

• A base defense.
• A Pats' RB who isn't Lewis.
  
• 5 wide.
  
• 2 LBs dropping into zone plus a 3rd LB who can cover a non-Lewis RB, who aren't mentioned further below.

How many teams have all of:

• A CB who can cover Edelman?
• A safety who can cover Gronk and/or a CB who can cover Gronk plus a safety who can cover Hogan?
• Another safety who can cover Bennett?

I'm not seeing it, no matter which way the two zone LBs are shaded.

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I agree very few teams have the personnel to do it, NE will still easily smoke 90% of teams. But there are a few teams like the Jets, Denver, Buffalo, and a few NFC teams that have the personnel to cover everyone. They need someone like Washington or a rookie WR that's fast to open up space underneath if they want to put up a lot of points on the best defenses in the league.

SlowGettingUp said:

At the end of the day, Brady is not at his best throwing outside downfield. (Not saying he can't make these throws, just they are not his comparative strength). Quick plus big receivers, short and intermediate, suits his style better.

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He doesn't have to do it frequently, just the threat of deep plays needs to be there.

Marqui said:

Honestly a team can just shut that down but flooding the middle of the field as usual. A team with a lot of good man 2 man players will be able to stop us if we have no outside downfield presence at WR.

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I've heard this before, but I'd disagree.

Go look at the SB winning years; the Pats offense really didn't cater towards downfield passing or hardly even the threat of downfield passing, at that. LaFell was probably the closest. But for anyone who wants to tag LaFell as a downfield threat; I'd question that. Go look at his split stats, of his 74 rec in 2014 only two receptions were for passes thrown in the 21-30 yard range. None within 31-40 yards. None 41+. Just two receptions over 21 yards. Two. That's it. The majority of his receptions were within 1-10 yards. That's hardly a deep threat.

Likewise, go take a look at the 07 SB with Randy Moss (a true deep threat). The receivers got blanketed, Brady was rushed, and the Giants shut down the offense about as bad as you'll see in any Brady/Belichick era playoff loss.

Deep threats are nice, but they aren't the be-all, end-all answer.

Bennett at his best is a top 5 TE IMO

Marqui said:

Honestly a team can just shut that down but flooding the middle of the field as usual. A team with a lot of good man 2 man players will be able to stop us if we have no outside downfield presence at WR.

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Only if you have the personnel to execute the game plan.

95% of the defenses they face can't execute that game plan.

Marqui said:

Honestly a team can just shut that down but flooding the middle of the field as usual. A team with a lot of good man 2 man players will be able to stop us if we have no outside downfield presence at WR.

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Flood the middle and Brady can eat it up by throwing in the flat or the wheel to Dion Lewis.

Or just flex the TE out wide and line the little guys in the slots and let them flood the middle.

Brady_to_Moss said:

Bennett at his best is a top 5 TE IMO

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Easily. It's Gronk then everyone else; but Bennett's definitely in the next tier of best all-around tight ends with Greg Olsen, Tyler Eifert, and Delanie Walker. He may not be quite the receiver that a player like Jordan Reed or a healthy Jimmy Graham or Julius Thomas is, but I prefer a guy who can block and even that's arguable.

Fencer said:

Let's assume:

• A base defense.
• A Pats' RB who isn't Lewis.
  
• 5 wide.
  
• 2 LBs dropping into zone plus a 3rd LB who can cover a non-Lewis RB, who aren't mentioned further below.

How many teams have all of:

• A CB who can cover Edelman?
• A safety who can cover Gronk and/or a CB who can cover Gronk plus a safety who can cover Hogan?
• Another safety who can cover Bennett?

I'm not seeing it, no matter which way the two zone LBs are shaded.

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People often make suggestions to stop our offense that includes 6 defenders playing zone and 5 more playing man.

Marqui said:

I agree very few teams have the personnel to do it, NE will still easily smoke 90% of teams. But there are a few teams like the Jets, Denver, Buffalo, and a few NFC teams that have the personnel to cover everyone. They need someone like Washington or a rookie WR that's fast to open up space underneath if they want to put up a lot of points on the best defenses in the league.

He doesn't have to do it frequently, just the threat of deep plays needs to be there.

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We run as many receivers on deep routes to clear out as any other team does. We throw as many or more of them as most teams. People talk like defenses won't have anyone cover the deep part of the field against us, but that's crazy. They may bring a safety up a little more frequently, but talking like there are 7 defenders within 10 yards of the los is just ill-informed