My offseason plan for the 2016 New England Patriots

The Jets are going to take a huge step back next season. Revis and Cromartie are both a year older and Fitzpatrick will regress to his mean.

Forte would be my #1 free agent target. At his age, $3 - $4 million would be about right, and he's a well rounded enough back to carry the ball and receive. The problem with the 2015 running backs was that, once Lewis went down, every option was one-dimensional and defenses could predict the play based on personnel. Add Forte to a healthy (I hope) Lewis and you'll see some very honest defenses.

Give me Forte, Rishard Matthews and Setphen Weisnewski, draft an OT, and this offense is fixed.

Ivan said:

None were high picks though.

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The high pick argument loses its strength when one considers how soon Dowling, Terrence Wheatley, Chad Jackson, and Bethel Johnson (also second-rounders) were removed from the Patriots

LET'S LOOK AT THE COST OF THE OFFENSE

1) STEP ONE - WHERE WE ARE

TOTAL OFFENSE (24 players at $69M))
This includes players under contract plus RFA's Develin, Waddle and Tyms.

2) STEP 2 - SOME CUTS AND A RESTRUCTURE ($8M)
Cut: Chandler, LaFell, Cannon save about $6.5M
Restructure: Amendola to save $1.5M

3) Use $8M of net cap money to sign TE, WR, OG and RB.

3) STEP 3
The 4 Specialists cost $8M

4) TOTAL OFFENSE AND SPECIAL TEAMS totals $77M.

5) STEP 5
Add $3M more to Budget for offense, giving it $10M plus the result of any cuts. This should cover minor additions.

Assumptions
RFA's picked up at $1M.
ERFA's picked up (no effect on cap)
Bottom of 51 priced at $600K.
All cap hits per Miguel.

BOTTOM LINE
Cost of Offense - $72M
Cost of Specialists - $8M
Total $80M

LET'S LOOK AT THE COST OF THE DEFENSE

1) STEP ONE - WHERE WE ARE

TOTAL OFFENSE (25 players at $72M))
This includes players under contract plus RFA Siliga and ERFA Coleman

2) STEP 2 - MAYO ($7M)
Do not pick up option for Mayo.

3) Use $7M of net cap money to extend Collins and sign a mid-level ILB.

4) TOTAL OFFENSE AND SPECIAL TEAMS totals 72M.

Assumptions
RFA's picked up at $1M.
ERFA's picked up (no effect on cap)
Bottom of 51 priced at $600K.
All cap hits per Miguel.

BOTTOM LINE
Cost of Offense - $72M
Cost of Specialists - $8M
Cost Of Defense - $72M
Total $152M

ANALYSIS
A) Our total cap is about $158.5, which leaves about $6.5M.
B) I would note that there are more things that can be done if we want to spend more than the money indicated in free agency.
C) Miguel has started the look at extensions including Collins. We have some possible extensions that will reduce the cap (Hightower, Jones, Sheard, Brady, Volume). Others would increase the cap cost (Butler, Harmon, Ryan). Others might be neutral (the RFA's, Branch).
D) I would expect additional change to fund the minor additions to the defense, in addition to an ILB; for example, a mid-level CB like Brown.

VectorPrime said:

The Jets are going to take a huge step back next season. Revis and Cromartie are both a year older and Fitzpatrick will regress to his mean.

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I've heard Cromartie may be a cap casualty this offseason. Might save them some cap, but even then they don't have a ton of cap space since they spent so much on their secondary and receivers last year. Fitzpatrick is a free agent, and so is Muhammad Wilkerson, Damon Harrison, Willie Colon, Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell, Calvin Pace, and Demario Davis. All starters. They have a lot of people heading out the door, Ivory for example isn't taking a discount so good chance he is gone. And if they can't find a solution at QB, expect a good regression from them next year.

Extend/Resign
Chandler Jones - 5 years/$45M
Jamie Collins - 5 years/$41.5M
Donta Hightower - 4 years/$36.7M
Akiem Hicks - 3 years/$8.2M
Nate Ebner - 2 years/$2.3M
James Develin - 2 years/$1.9M

RFA Tender
LaAdrian Waddle
Justin Coleman
Brandon King
Rufus Johnson
Cameron Fleming

UFA Signings
Marvin Jones - 3 years/10.5M
Dwayne Allen - 3 years/$5.7M
Josh Robinson - 1 year/$825K


More to come...

Brady6 said:

RFA Tender
LaAdrian Waddle
Justin Coleman
Brandon King
Rufus Johnson
Cameron Fleming

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Rufus Johnson, Cameron Fleming, Justin Coleman and Brandon King are ERFAs, not RFAs. They have to sign their tenders in order to play in the NFL next season.

Brady6 said:

Extend/Resign
Jamie Collins - 5 years/$41.5M
Donta Hightower - 4 years/$36.7M

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Earlier in this thread you wrote that "I don't really understand why you and others feel Hightower is worth more money than Jamie Collins. Collins is better than Hightower, and has a much higher ceiling."

Now you are paying Hightower more money on a yearly average than Collins.

Hightower is the captain/brains of the defense. I think the D would fall apart a lot faster without Hightower than without Collins.

TommyBrady12 said:

Hightower is the captain/brains of the defense. I think the D would fall apart a lot faster without Hightower than without Collins.

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That can't possibly be true since Brady6 has stated that he can't understand why anyone would think that Hightower would get more money until he proposed it

Brady6 said:

Extend/Resign
Chandler Jones - 5 years/$45M
Marvin Jones - 3 years/10.5M
More to come...

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Who are you using comparables for? Their valuations looked to be really low.

Miguel said:

Earlier in this thread you wrote that "I don't really understand why you and others feel Hightower is worth more money than Jamie Collins. Collins is better than Hightower, and has a much higher ceiling."

Now you are paying Hightower more money on a yearly average than Collins.

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I meant to put a 5 in front of years for Hightower not a 4.

Collins is $8.3M APY
Hightower is $7.3M APY

Miguel said:

Who are you using comparables for? Their valuations looked to be really low.

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C. Jones = Crawford (DAL)
M. Jones = Johnson (SD)

No doubt they're low, but I'm not a real GM either...

I don't mean to hijack this thread with a somewhat off topic train of thought, but the Hightower, Collins, Jones, and Butler potential extensions have got me thinking.

Wow, the Patriots sure paid a lot of money for Devin McCourty. He is a very good free safety and does a lot that doesn't show up in the stat column; he also makes other corners look better. I am a huge fan of DMac. That being said, I'm not sure if he is really a huge asset from an economic perspective, since his contract sure dictates that his production should be very, very high. I hope the Pats can afford the extensions needed for Hightower and Collins, especially Collins.

In my opinion, you save your megadeal contracts for guys who are playmakers and make a huge impact on who wins and loses, and I'm not 100% convinced McCourty is that player. I've always thought the Patriots should not have paid that much to Mankins and Mayo, since they were both solid but weren't game changers. Collins is that player; Hightower is also that player. Butler might be, too, with another year of improvement. I hope DMac can take his game to the next level if it comes down to a cap issue and not being able to retain elite players.

my off season would go like this.

Josh Gordon for our 2nd rd pick if he loses his appeal on the accrued season. If he wins, make it a 3rd. 2 years of having a #1 for 1.5M a year is worth giving up the #2 and if he is not signed long term he will get a nice comp pick when he leaves.

Sign Damon Harrsion 4 and 26, I know he only plays 30 snaps but he is dominant vs the run

Dwayne Allen is the guy I want also. 2 and 2.5M Per

Re-Sign Hicks 2 and 3.5mill per.

I also would like to take another Flyer on Tarell Brown

Sign Erin Henderson 2 years and 2mill per

Give another shot to Ridley 1 mill

These signing require 15mill is year.

These additions along with the return of our wounded will make us the SB favorite.

Miguel said:

The high pick argument loses its strength when one considers how soon Dowling, Terrence Wheatley, Chad Jackson, and Bethel Johnson (also second-rounders) were removed from the Patriots

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Seems like most of those guys had the same amount of run as Dobson has had. Honestly, I'm not a fan and I don't care that much if they keep him around I just feel like he's not a priority cut for cap reasons and unless they are really done with him they should hang on until they replace the role adequately. If they were getting more cap relief from releasing them it would make more sense to me to do it now.

stinkypete said:

Forte would be my #1 free agent target. At his age, $3 - $4 million would be about right.

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I think we'd need to bump this average up to the 4-5m dollar range, personally.
Forte has proven that he's capable of being a 3 down RB and offers both a rushing and receiving dual threat, as you mention.

Considering that someone like Frank Gore received 4m dollars AAV and he'll be 33 this spring, whereas Forte "just" turned 30 at Christmastime, I think there are going to be a handful of teams who are more than happy to pay him as one of the top RBs in free agency. For me, that starts at around 4.5m--5.0m dollars.

I just read the article moments ago, and I imagine that the following is a typo:

So, as of January 29 I project the Patriots to be under projected cap number by about $5.3 million.

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Ivan said:

Seems like most of those guys had the same amount of run as Dobson has had. Honestly, I'm not a fan and I don't care that much if they keep him around I just feel like he's not a priority cut for cap reasons and unless they are really done with him they should hang on until they replace the role adequately. If they were getting more cap relief from releasing them it would make more sense to me to do it now.

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I never said that Dobson was a priority cut for cap reasons.