Off-season Effect of Losing to Peyton

For most Pats fans, losing to Peyton Manning in the post-season is one of the most painful experiences to deal with. They would rather lose to ANYONE else. The only losses that sting more than the losses to Peyton are the losses to his brother, Eli, in the Super Bowl.

A few days after feeling down about another tough loss to swallow at the hands of Peyton, I'm beginning the process of moving on. I'm "on to the off-season," in the words of Bill.

As I start to look forward, I have a different take than most fans do regarding losing to Peyton Manning in the playoffs. As much as it stings in the short term, the longer term effects of such a loss have proven to be a huge net positive.

Therefore, if the Pats are going to lose and not win it all in a given year, I WANT their post-season loss to be to Peyton Manning. Why, you may ask?

Well, because over the course of Bill Belichick's entire tenure in New England, no losses have seemed to sting Belichick (and the Krafts) more than the losses to Peyton Manning in the AFC Championship game. (Even more so than losing The perfect season or to The Giants for a second time.)

The constant, singular factor that has motivated Belichick and the Krafts to aggressively upgrade their roster and open up their checkbooks has always been a season-ending loss to Peyton Manning. Just take a look at the past history.

38-34 loss in 2006 AFC Championship Game in Indianapolis: Defense blew a 21-6 halftime lead. Brady had absolutely no weapons to work with in the passing game (Reche Caldwell was the team’s leading receiver). The Pats’ defense got chewed by tight end Dallas Clark for 137 yards.

2007 Off-season: Pats went out and signed the big fish on the market - Adalius Thomas - to help cover tight ends and rush the passer. They completely revamped the offense, bringing in Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Donte Stallworth at wide receiver, finally giving Brady the weapons necessary for an explosive pass offense. Slapped the franchise tag on Asante Samuel to make sure he stuck around for more season even though they had no intentions of signing him long term. Didn't trade out of the first round and took Brandon Meriweather, who they talked up as a ball hawking, versatile defensive back who could play corner and safety. They even signed guys like Sammy Morris and Kyle Brady to provide higher quality depth on offense after the disaster that 2006 was.

2007 season: An all-time great team that can within a few odd bounces of going 19-0.

26-16 loss in 2013 AFC Championship Game in Denver: Pats’ pass defense gave up 400 yards and 2 TD to Peyton Manning, getting torched for 137 yards by Demaryius Thomas while running Alfonzo Dennard out there as a starting corner. Brady's weapons in that game consisted of Edelman, Austin Collie, Matthew Mulligan, and Michael Hoomanawanui. Amendola was invisible, Gronkowski was injured.

2014 Off-season: Let Talib walk, but sign the big fish on the market once again - Darrelle Revis - and also pick up Brandon Browner to immediately upgrade the secondary in a big way. Signed Brandon LaFell in an attempt to bring in an outside the numbers wide receiver threat to help open up the offense. Opened up the checkbook and re-signed Julian Edelman, who many thought would not be back after the commitment made to Danny Amendola the previous off-season. Took a flier on proven pass rusher Will Smith, who was ultimately cut at the end of camp. Stayed put in first round of draft and took a risk on a guy lauded as an undersized, disruptive interior rusher in Dominique Easley, who is more of a passing down player than a “four down player.”

2014 season: Super Bowl victory over defending champion Seattle.

As much as it stings for Pats fans to lose to Peyton Manning in the playoffs, the good news is that it seems to sting Belichick and the Krafts just as much, if not more. They have consistently reacted with big, bold off-season moves the last two times their season was ended by Peyton Manning. These moves immediately upgraded the roster and led to Super Bowl appearances in the following seasons.

So while losing the AFC Championship game Sunday and not being able to celebrate a fifth Super Bowl this season blows right now, the silver lining is that maybe we are in store for another epic off-season that really focuses on making the most out of Brady's last few great years.

A revamping of the offensive line to allow the team to protect Brady better and run the ball more effectively as he ages? Better outside the numbers wide receivers or a tight end like Aaron Hernández who can dictate coverage, get deep, and separate against man coverage? An added pass rusher or versatile defensive back who is a ball hawk? A trade up in the draft? A trade for a proven veteran burning to win a ring? An impact free agent signing? Who knows?

Bottom line: All I know is, if we had to lose this post-season, I'm actually GLAD we lost to Peyton Manning, because that has been the single greatest motivating factor for Belichick and the Kraft's to aggressively improve this team. And i think the process has already begun to take shape, with the number of staff changes being made already. This feels like it is just the tip of the iceberg.

And let's be honest: Tom Brady is going to be 39. We only have a few more cracks at it with him at the level he's currently playing at. No one beats father time. And as great of a coach as Belichick is, there will no doubt be a drop off for a period of time when the team has to transition to a new QB. It's inevitable. You're not going to just have a guy like Andrew Luck drop into your lap like Indianapolis did.

So, If the pattern holds to form, get ready for an exciting off-season and pencil the Pats in for another Super Bowl appearance next year.

I like patterns so I like your theory. We're onto the off season!

I don't know why or what it will be exactly but I just have this feeling that the Pats are going to do something interesting this offseason. Just a hunch, but I can feel it.

Only issue with that is, unlike the last two times, we didn't really lose to Peyton this time. We lost to the Broncos defense.

Joey007 said:

Only issue with that is, unlike the last two times, we didn't really lose to Peyton this time. We lost to the Broncos defense.

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That arguably makes it even more frustrating. Peyton did jack sh*t all year and gets carried to a SuperBowl.

TBR said:

That arguably makes it even more frustrating. Peyton did jack sh*t all year and gets carried to a SuperBowl.

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Yes but his defense will be no match to the Carolina offense

i expect Peyton to lose badly in 9 days.

Joey007 said:

Only issue with that is, unlike the last two times, we didn't really lose to Peyton this time. We lost to the Broncos defense.

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It's still losing to Peyton. That's how everyone looks at it.

NJPatsfan26 said:

Yes but his defense will be no match to the Carolina offense

i expect Peyton to lose badly in 9 days.

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This is the popular thought and one that I share as well. That said, the Broncos certainly have plenty of capable weapons on both sides of the ball, and as poorly as Manning has looked at times, he's still utilizing his cerebral skills to his advantage through pre-snap reads and checks into better plays.

Add in the fact that CAR hasn't exactly faced world beaters this season and have not seen too much adversity, and there's some reasons to believe that the game may be closer than most think. Obviously, it goes without saying that I hope the Panthers come out on top, but I won't be placing any wagers, myself.

Going into the playoffs the Cardinals were considered the second best team in the league. Look at what the Panthers did to them.

Joey007 said:

Only issue with that is, unlike the last two times, we didn't really lose to Peyton this time. We lost to the Broncos defense.

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While I agree the defense played the larger role in the win, Manning still gets credit for "managing the game" successfully like we used to give Brady credit for back in those 03-04 days when our defense would completely shut down those Manning-led Colts offenses. We would praise Brady for avoiding killer turnovers and making just enough plays to win, which is basically what Manning did.

And as others have said, despite the fact that it wasn't Manning torching us for 400 yards and 35 points, we still lost to a Manning-led team. And I still got that same old feeling of uncontrollable rage when we lost to him Sunday.

And I don't think for a second that those similar feelings have faded or are lost on Belichick, Brady, and the Krafts, despite the verbal bouquets thrown Manning's way regarding his "last rodeo." Just take a look at the joy the Krafts took in the Ravens' demise this season.

And Belichick and Brady are the type of guys that have eyes and ears for everything. After the game Sunday, all i saw on ESPN and NFL Network were stats regarding Manning being 3-1 in AFC Championship games against Brady and Belichick, how he's gotten the better of them on the biggest stages, and how his passer rating is just as good (if not better than) Brady in those games. Couple that with all the local talk around town of how badly Belichick mishandled the end of the season, blowing home field, and the criticism of in game strategy/game plan.

I'm a firm believer that this stuff does not sit well at all with guys that coach and play with chips on their shoulders like Belichick and Brady.

To me his loss was as devastating as the 2006 AFC Championship loss in Indy. That one sat with me for a long time, blowing a 21-6 halftime lead and just not being able to finish that team off like we should have. This one stings me just as much. Both years I felt that we were the overall better team and despite being on the road, that we should have won. I know that 06 team lacked the weapons on offense and barely escaped that game in San Diego, but i was confident we had enough to get by Indy.

I just think this loss in Denver is really going to sting Belichick. I think it's already starting to play out too with the number of heads rolling down there already in terms of staff changes.

We shall see.

VectorPrime said:

Going into the playoffs the Cardinals were considered the second best team in the league. Look at what the Panthers did to them.

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Going into the playoffs the Patriots were considered the team to beat in the AFC. Look at what the Broncos did to us.

I hope the Panthers humiliate the Donks. Total system annihilation. More than Peyton, I don't want Elway's little project to work.

My wife hid all my belts and took away all my shoelaces. Do you realize how uncomfortable sandals are in the winter.

Joey007 said:

Only issue with that is, unlike the last two times, we didn't really lose to Peyton this time. We lost to the Broncos defense.

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Or Rex Ryan's defense exhumed. Regardless of personnel, injured RBs, inadequate alternate receivers, we need a package for when we see the "drop 7-8 into the passing lanes for crossing routes" stuff. Not excusing the horrible OLine, but this defense kills us and creative play calling could still loosen that up a bit.

Remember, as horrible as that game looked, we were a 2 pt conversion from overtime. Happy as hell to take an ugly win and hope we match up better in the SB, because that football takes funny bounces, it ain't round.

Also, if you think a team needs to dominate on offense to win a super Bowl, you might want to check a box score from the original 2001 season SB.

alvinnf said:

My wife hid all my belts and took away all my shoelaces. Do you realize how uncomfortable sandals are in the winter.

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Well you could buy white sneakers with the Velcro straps and walk around the mall 30 times, take a nap and hit the early bird prime rib special at 430pm.

This team was a couple of o-linemen away from SB berth. Fix the goddamn O-line, and maybe get a good x-receiver, and we'll be right back at the big dance.

VectorPrime said:

Going into the playoffs the Cardinals were considered the second best team in the league. Look at what the Panthers did to them.

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Of course Carson Palmer basically swallowed his tongue in that game, so it's a little misleading…

Joey007 said:

Only issue with that is, unlike the last two times, we didn't really lose to Peyton this time. We lost to the Broncos defense.

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The same defense that the Ravens, Giants, Jets have used to beat NE.

Blowing through the regular season builds a false sense of invincibility until the post season where the Elite teams lay and wait.

dannydyn said:

This team was a couple of o-linemen away from SB berth. Fix the goddamn O-line, and maybe get a good x-receiver, and we'll be right back at the big dance.

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The run game has to be fixed no matter what.

One time Brady is not going to get back up.

PittPatriot said:

Going into the playoffs the Patriots were considered the team to beat in the AFC. Look at what the Broncos did to us.

I hope the Panthers humiliate the Donks. Total system annihilation. More than Peyton, I don't want Elway's little project to work.

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Well, there were quite a few people who thought Pitt could represent the AFC in the SB, and a fair number even entertained KC. Everyone was puzzled as to what to make of NE's 2-4 over the last 6 games.

For me, it's not so much losing to Peyton as it is the d-bag teams he plays for.