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Idle thoughts - some comments and observations to get to 3pm (est)


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patfanken

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Something so you don't have to listen to that canned stuff that will only aggravate you before the actual game starts.

1. There was a thread that showed a clip from Patriots All Access that did an interview with Tom Brady just before he was to start his first game in the NFL. Amazingly he was EXACTLY the same guy he is now, minus any of the expectations. You can hear the same voice, see the same calm confidence, and the same focus.

But it is hard to think back so long ago. You are 0-2. Pro Football Weekly just did a big feature on the 5 teams LEAST likely to get to the Superbowl in the next 5 years and your team was #1 on that list.....and you just lost your starting QB and only offensive asset.

It is almost impossible to put yourself back into that mindset. But think about it. If you had followed this team from its inception you have had 40 years in which you got to have around just 2 competitive years in each decade, with 8 generally horrible teams. The good news is , that most of the last decade was a bit better than the past with about 5 good teams that decade including a Superbowl run, but now you were coming off a series of 3 competitive but disappointing teams that cost Pete Carroll his job, and another very familiar 5-11 team, and a season in 2001 that COULDN'T have started out any worse.

Who would have thought that 15 years later we will have experienced 10 AFCCG's 6 Superbowls, and 4 Championships and never felt the sting of even an 8-8 season in all that time. From that nadir we have become the most spoiled and entitled fan base in the league. We don't even THINK about the possibility of not making the playoffs. We used to pencil in 10 wins every year. Now it's 12, and most believe that's on the conservative side.

And it all goes back to that interview with Mike Lynch. Who would have thunk? :D Tip of the hat to Shmessy for posting the link. It is a must see before this game. But my overriding impression was it was a trip down memory lane that was surprisingly the same as today.

2. The priorities for both teams are pretty clear this game. How are the Pats going to try and stop the Bronco Running game, and how will Wade Phillips try and stop the Pats passing game.

a. I'm not going to pretend to be smart enough to start to bore you with details of nickel and dime alignments and predict personnel match ups. My guess on all of that is just as good as yours, so why bother. Besides they aren't going to do the same thing all the time. However the thing I am looking most forward to is to see his "approach". Common wisdom would expect a lot of tight press coverage on the outside, doubling at a minimum on Gronk, and otherwise trying to clog the area in between the hashes 5-10 yds downfield. He has 2 probowl CB's and a solid nickel back, two big S's, and most importantly 2 better than average coverage LB's in Marshall and Trevethin. So it would seem that Phillips is set up well to try and squeeze Brady.

However against the Steelers, even without Brown, Phillips played a surprising high percentage of zone coverages. The end result was Ben throwing for a lot of yards, but netting few points for his efforts. Zone coverages tend to do well against quick sideline passes and screens. Most importantly they tend to limit the amount of YAC. In zone coverages you don't wind up seeing the disaster of CB's chasing WR's across the field. So I wonder if Phillips will break with the common wisdom and Zone it up more today.

b. A lot has been said about the stats vs the Denver run game WITH Hightower and without him. I wish it were that simple. Not having Collins and High in the game certainly didn't help, but there is more to it. Kubiak's running attack is based on running the stretch play. It is designed to get everyone moving sideways before the RB makes a decisive North/South cut hoping to get a LB to over run the play or a DLman getting cut off from protecting the back side. It is also accompanied by a zone blocking scheme designed to get the DL off their feet with cut blocks (and chop blocks)

Everything in the Kubiak offense comes off this single play. You get all the bootlegs, misdirection reverses and trap plays. It is simple to describe, but a lot more difficult to defend. In Josh's offense anything over 3rd and 2 is a definite pass play, but in the Denver offense, 3rd and 7 could very easily be a run.

So how is Matt going to scheme this up. Saying he'll have "8 in the box" with Chung playing close to the LOS is over simplifying. Here's what to watch for. Is he going to attack the LOS with his DL trying to get penetration of will he 2gap or slant to formation? (pittsburgh did a lot of slanting to good effect) Will he go with 3 safeties a lot in this game.in this game (the "big nickel). How often will he go with a 4-3 over and give the Broncos an odd look. Will he look to stack his LB's behind a DLman to protect them from direct attack.

Lots of possibilities. Clearly stopping the run is paramount to the success of the team. How they will scheme it up will be key. I'm just suggesting these things as something to look for while you watch.

3. INJURIES - The latest I've heard is that on the offensive side things are as good as we can hope for. Volmer and Stork are still dinged, but probably in better shape than last week. Edelman, Gronk, and DA, are probably iin better shape too. Certainly they will be a more cohesive group. The other side....not so much. Jones and Hightower are almost certainly be playing, but for how long remains the open question. Collins is even in worse shape. There is a solid possibility that they won't play him even with the one and done nature of this game. It is much harder to treat for pain and tape for support an oblique tear than say a knee or ankle. Also it's also more likely to get worse with out the full rest of another 2 weeks would bring. So my guess right now is that they are probably hoping that they won't have to use him much this game, and if he does play it will be more situational.
 
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4. OUR RUNNING GAME - I'm hoping for a bit more out of our run game this week. Last week Denver used a LOT of 5-6 and even 7 DB sets, so being able to run out of perceived passing alignments could be very effective, or at least effective relative to what we've seen from the run game lately. I'd like to see us run the ball more out of the shot gun and to other areas of the LOS beyond directly over the C.

5. This has been a horrifying week in the media for me, forcing me to really limit my listening for my own mental health. And it was a good thing too, since just about every time I dipped my toe into the media morass, I was forced to run screaming from the stage within 10 minutes.

a. ESPN did as expected. They made every comment a Bronco player made into earth shattering news. Suddenly the big topic on First Take was just how big a crybaby is Tom Brady. :rolleyes: Meanwhile every effort to justify Manning's horrific season attempted including the spin doctoring article explaining how Manning's playoff stats aren't so bad. Felger loved that one. :rolleyes: The NYT's article detailing Brady's innocence - IGNORED. The undeniable fact that HGH was sent to the Manning household - IGNORED -

Now balancing that is the near universal perception by the mediots that the Pats are going to win this game. That is NEVER a good thing to do to a follower of Boston sports teams. We are NEVER comfortable when that happens. :)

6. I am expecting that we see only 2 drops from each team this week. Anyone thinking that they will see a continuation of the bad hands we've seen by all the receivers in this game are not being realistic.

7. REFEREES- It is certainly disconcerting to know that the Bronco haven't lost a game reffed by Hoculi in like the last 10 games, but I think we will see a "relatively" fair game. You have to expect that the home team will get slightly more of the calls. The same goes when its at Gillette. Mostly I just want the game to be called equally. If the Denver OL gets to hold, then I want the Pats OL to get the same consideration. If the Denver DB's can rough up the Pats receivers, I expect similar for the Pats DB's. BTW- I prefer that scenario to having them call everything on everybody even if its done equally.

Ultimately it is my fervent hope that when I do my post after the game, the refs will be far down the list of my comments. (talk about wishful thinking. ;) )

8. SPECIAL TEAMS AND TO's - Everyone always spend 85% of the time talking about the offense and defenses of the respective teams, but in the end the game is usually won by the team that wins the turn over battle and/or makes a big play or 2 on special teams. DA's punt return was a key play vs KC, just like Harper's muff was key in November. I think we don't talk much about it because the success or failure is so hard to predict. Besides KO's aren't returned about 80% of the time these days and the percentage is even higher in Denver, so a big part of the ST's game is lost

9. WEATHER - it is not a matter of the cold, its the wind that would give the Pats an advantage. Anything over 20mph would really limit Manning even further. Keep an eye out on that, because usually, IIRC, it gets windier as the game goes on there.

10. PREDICTION - I've never been much for predicting games. A lot of people who bet ask me specific things about a game, but I very rarely bet myself. Teams are generally too evenly matched and so much is unpredictable like calls, injuries, and bounces.

a. I do feel pretty good about this, but I'd feel a lot better if I was sure who exactly would be playing defense for the Pats in the 4th quarter....and how well they were playing.

b. The NFL is sponsoring the game, so that is never going to make feel good anymore. Too much is on the record showing that they will do pretty much anything (including fraud and slander) to get what the want, to completely ignore the possibility of foul play or subterfuge not to at least worry a bit about it.

c. What I'd LIKE to see is a close game with the Pats pulling away in the fourth quarter to win 27-16. I will feel much better about the superbowl (where we will most likely be an underdog) if we showed we could kill the clock with a game closing drive against a great Defense. Too much of the last half of the year has been about getting a lead and then hanging on for dear life at the end....or not. :eek:

d. What I expect to see is the Pats going out to a lead then hanging on for dear life and winning the game. ;)
 
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It's a road game against a team that's beaten us once this season, and that is good enough to have just reached the AFCC. You have every right to be worried. :)

Not according to half the people on this forum I don't.
 
broncos will play 6 DBs the whole time, daring us to run. can steven Jackson have a big day?
 
Collins is even in worse shape. There is a solid possibility that they won't play him even with the one and done nature of this game. It is much harder to treat for pain and tape for support an oblique tear than say a knee or ankle. Also it's also more likely to get worse with out the full rest of another 2 weeks would bring. So my guess right now is that they are probably hoping that they won't have to use him much this game, and if he does play it will be more situational.

In a game that's both this big and this close to the end of the season, the base case is that guys suck it up, including using as many pain meds as they think they need.

You may do something with 2 games remaining in a season that you wouldn't do with 9 or 19 to go.
 
broncos will play 6 DBs the whole time, daring us to run. can steven Jackson have a big day?

If not, then we'll be forced to try and see what Bolden can do with another 15 or so carries. Either way, yes--I do expect more rushing attempts, even if they don't come in the first 1/3 or first 1/2 of the matchup.
 
Id feel a lot more confident if both Dion Lewis and Nate Solder were to rise from the dead and play tomorrow. Our running game would improve exponentially with them both in. Solder is an iffy pass blocker but he is a mauler in the run game.
 
Do the Broncos have 6 quality DBs?

I don't think they necessarily have SIX "quality" DBs, but does any team in the entire NFL?

They do have Talib, Harris, Roby, and Ward as their top 4--so they're in much better shape than most teams.
 
I don't think they necessarily have SIX "quality" DBs, but does any team in the entire NFL?

They do have Talib, Harris, Roby, and Ward as their top 4--so they're in much better shape than most teams.

and ward is not a good coverage DB. He is a thumper and very good in the run game.
 
Do not see them deviating all that much from the pass game, might use the run situationally, or even use Jackson as a decoy.. but this makeshift line probably cannot open the holes necessary.

Always thought our run game was really the short passing game.. Edelman, White and sometimes Gronk... stick was works best.

You mention Brady being the same guy as he was in SB 36, remember that day I was thinking what is going to Brady's mind and he must be jumpy as hell.. later I learned he took a nap on a bench in the locker room with head phones on, that is one of the gazillion things that make us different.. not sure I could have managed the anxiety.

My biggest questions in this game are the health of Collins, Hightower and Jones.. the first two especially.
 
Ken, your post made me realize I personally have attended every single game Tom Brady has played in Foxboro, 2001-present day. (Plus a number of away games.) It's been a good chunk of our lifetimes and an amazing run. Thanks to Tom, BB and Bob Kraft, we are at the center of the football universe.
 
However against the Steelers, even without Brown, Phillips played a surprising high percentage of zone coverages. The end result was Ben throwing for a lot of yards, but netting few points for his efforts. Zone coverages tend to do well against quick sideline passes and screens. Most importantly they tend to limit the amount of YAC. In zone coverages you don't wind up seeing the disaster of CB's chasing WR's across the field. So I wonder if Phillips will break with the common wisdom and Zone it up more today.

The Steelers are a home run offense that likes to stretch the field. Making Ben matriculate the ball down the field makes a lot of sense. The Steelers are undisciplined and will eventually shoot themselves in the foot. If he does that Brady will eat them alive. I think the strategy today is flood the middle of the field with defenders and only rush 4. Phillips loves to blitz so we'll see if he has the patience for it especially on 3rd and 4-7.

b. A lot has been said about the stats vs the Denver run game WITH Hightower and without him. I wish it were that simple. Not having Collins and High in the game certainly didn't help, but there is more to it. Kubiak's running attack is based on running the stretch play. It is designed to get everyone moving sideways before the RB makes a decisive North/South cut hoping to get a LB to over run the play or a DLman getting cut off from protecting the back side. It is also accompanied by a zone blocking scheme designed to get the DL off their feet with cut blocks (and chop blocks)

If you re-watch the game when our DL got themselves pushed out of position Hightower found the seam and cleaned up for them. When he went out that went away and we got gashed. Mayo isn't the same player but he would have been a great player to have for this game. If Collins is also out Hightower has to play or the DL has to play a much better game.

So how is Matt going to scheme this up. Saying he'll have "8 in the box" with Chung playing close to the LOS is over simplifying. Here's what to watch for. Is he going to attack the LOS with his DL trying to get penetration of will he 2gap or slant to formation? (pittsburgh did a lot of slanting to good effect) Will he go with 3 safeties a lot in this game.in this game (the "big nickel). How often will he go with a 4-3 over and give the Broncos an odd look. Will he look to stack his LB's behind a DLman to protect them from direct attack.

If Easley was playing I think I'd agree with you but I'm not sure they have the athletes to pull this off. Honestly I think they might be better off going with a 5-man front that has a look of a 3-4 but with Nink and Jones playing wide on the line so they can drop in situations and force Peyton to pass and then get in his lanes. I might even put both of them with Sheard on the field at the same time especially if Collins cannot go. If Br0wn, Siliga and Hicks try to penetrate they are going to get sealed and the Broncos have a big game. I think they are better off trying to play good gap discipline and overload the LOS.

The goal is to push everything to the center of the and limit the gap options.
 
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40 seconds to go... 35, 30, 25 seconds to go and we're defending half a yard and Seattle has 3 chances to do it. Tom Brady is going to be 3-3 in the Super Bowl, we're going to lose a third straight Super Bowl on a miracle catch. If someone had asked me right before Russell threw the pass if i would have traded an interception and a win for a 0-16 season, i would have gladly done so. I was shell shocked. 2006,2008,20012,2015, heartbreak after heartbreak...will we ever win again with Brady?

And then, Malcolm Butler!!!

Just remember that feeling before the interception, the dread, the despair, disbelief...and now, we're two games away from defending the Super Bowl.

Every single playoff run after SB 42, i was just hoping for something to erase that memory. And now that we have it, i have both the complete confidence in this team and the peace of mind that no matter what happens tonight, these years have been truly remarkable and i'm extremely grateful to be a fan of this team.

Go Pats!
 
b. A lot has been said about the stats vs the Denver run game WITH Hightower and without him. I wish it were that simple. Not having Collins and High in the game certainly didn't help, but there is more to it. Kubiak's running attack is based on running the stretch play. It is designed to get everyone moving sideways before the RB makes a decisive North/South cut hoping to get a LB to over run the play or a DLman getting cut off from protecting the back side. It is also accompanied by a zone blocking scheme designed to get the DL off their feet with cut blocks (and chop blocks)

Everything in the Kubiak offense comes off this single play. You get all the bootlegs, misdirection reverses and trap plays. It is simple to describe, but a lot more difficult to defend. In Josh's offense anything over 3rd and 2 is a definite pass play, but in the Denver offense, 3rd and 7 could very easily be a run.

So how is Matt going to scheme this up. Saying he'll have "8 in the box" with Chung playing close to the LOS is over simplifying. Here's what to watch for. Is he going to attack the LOS with his DL trying to get penetration of will he 2gap or slant to formation? (pittsburgh did a lot of slanting to good effect) Will he go with 3 safeties a lot in this game.in this game (the "big nickel). How often will he go with a 4-3 over and give the Broncos an odd look. Will he look to stack his LB's behind a DLman to protect them from direct attack.

The key to defending the stretch, as you know, is to be able to set the edge, wall it off and maintaining gap discipline. It's all about gap discipline and keeping your face in your gap to take away the crease, and that's where Hightower excels, not just with his uncanny ability to scrape and meet the RB at the hole, but as the brain of the defense, he ensures everyone is in the right place at the right time. When he went out, you could start to see linemen and backers ending up in the wrong place, getting turned by their blockers and that is how creases got opened up- holes you could drive a truck through.

So what I honestly expect to see executed is nothing fancy, other than proper fundamentals, (rather than exotic scheming) i.e., emphasizing the linemen to stay square up front and not get turned, or knocked off their feet as you mentioned, and just let the backers make the plays. I imagine that this is one thing BB has drilled into the squad, and hopefully they hold true to this, and especially for the edge defenders so they can shed blocks and take away the cutback.

I really would be surprised to see the DL in attack mode rather than focusing on maintaining the wall and letting the backers do their jobs.
 
Ken, your post made me realize I personally have attended every single game Tom Brady has played in Foxboro, 2001-present day. (Plus a number of away games.) It's been a good chunk of our lifetimes and an amazing run. Thanks to Tom, BB and Bob Kraft, we are at the center of the football universe.

Yep. Even when the team is most likely in transition 5 to 7 years from now it won't feel like 1983, 1992 or 2000.

There will always be hope and always the memory of knowing that this team from 2001 to whenever was the baddest dynasty the NFL has ever seen.
 
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