Idle thoughts - AFCCG - first thoughts

luuked said:

I would not be terribly concerned about them playing suddenly a different kind of zone coverage even if it was successful for Seattle. It's one thing if a team plays this kind of defense very often like Seattle does but a complete different thing if a coordinator tries to install something like that within a week into a secondary that doesn't have that much experience with it. This just calls for 1-2 blown coverages during the game.

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Unfortunately I'm sure this kind of cover is part of the standard package Wade Phillips uses. We saw some of it used in the Steeler game. It's part of everyone's package these days. In the old days they's call it a 5 under, and it's designed to squeeze the short areas of the field where the Pats like to run their passes. It's biggest weakness is the run game because you usually need 5 or 6 DB's to run it.

Rex ran it against the Pats in 2010. It worked in a large part because Brady wasn't patient enough to run the ball or throw check downs to RB's who were open all night. It also worked because it was a surprise. Now there were a lot of other reasons the Jets won that night, but this was one of them.....and it never worked to that degree again.

Its not unusual for the fanbase to be overly anxious heading into the AFCCG - god knows we've had some doozies down the years!

On paper, this looks like a rout - i'll be extremely disappointed if they allow the Denver running game (that averaged a mediocre 3.3 ypc vs the Steelers) to be the deciding factor.

You have to expect they might break the odd one - Denver OL are regularly allowed to maul their opponents to the ground (as evidenced multiple times Sunday) but i'm very happy how our whole team defends the run from the DL to guys like Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler.

The degree of Mannings fall from grace over the last two seasons has been quite, quite staggering - physically he is in an awful state - the way he contorts his body to try and sling shot anything over 10 yards is painful to watch (it won't be painful to watch Sunday, I might add).

Whatever we might say about his post-season choking, we always knew that Manning had the ability to take a game clean away without us even doing very much wrong - those days are long gone.

Now the media wants us to buy into the notion that its a good idea for your QB to just be a playcaller and not the dude who actually physically throws the ball down the field.

The whole team is caught between a rock and a hard place on both offence and defence.

The Kubiak offence wants to ground and pound and control the clock - the Peyton Manning offence wants to go up tempo and tire teams out in the Colorado altitude - what they end up with is often a little of both and nothing very threatening.

The defence is the typical Wade Phillips affair - they will dominate lower echelon offences and run up some Starwars stats - sacks, hurries, picks - you name it they are probably near the top of the list.

Just like your usual Wade Phillips defence - it can't handle a precision operator like Brady who will put together long, meticulous drives and exhaust their pass rush.

Even the defensive identity seemed compromised on Sunday - they spent a lot of time in zone only to get chewed up.

Its always possible that a team can shoot itself in the foot all game long and end up losing - but lets be real here - we'd have all taken this match up at almost any point of the season to date.

Go Patriots.

Will the offensive gameplan be any different than what we saw vs. KC? The defenses seem nearly identical in their strengths (outside pash rushers, secondary), though the secondaries differ greatly in personnel type.

Defensively, clog the middle of the field and force those floaters outside the numbers. Standard operating procedure with Manning the past 2 or 3 years.

However, I'm not as confident in our run D as I was this time last year. I really thought by now our run D would be top 3-5 in the league like it usually is by now. And I don't mean collectively because those stats don't mean jack. It puzzles me because we have the bodies to stuff the run. I'm not saying it's terrible or even bad, but it usually seems like a strength and right now I'm not seeing that.

patfanken said:

Unfortunately I'm sure this kind of cover is part of the standard package Wade Phillips uses. We saw some of it used in the Steeler game. It's part of everyone's package these days. In the old days they's call it a 5 under, and it's designed to squeeze the short areas of the field where the Pats like to run their passes. It's biggest weakness is the run game because you usually need 5 or 6 DB's to run it.

Rex ran it against the Pats in 2010. It worked in a large part because Brady wasn't patient enough to run the ball or throw check downs to RB's who were open all night. It also worked because it was a surprise. Now there were a lot of other reasons the Jets won that night, but this was one of them.....and it never worked to that degree again.

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Wont be surprised if the broncos play dime and ask the pats to run the ball.

SVN said:

Wont be surprised if the broncos play dime and ask the pats to run the ball.

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they may not be able to play dime now because of the bolden and harris injuries.

TommyBrady12 said:

they may not be able to play dime now because of the bolden and harris injuries.

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Very good point.

Then again wouldn't it be just awesome for them to dare us to run and SJax actually runs over them? Not that I'm expecting it but all in all he is still a big unknown.

Will be a fascinating game on a tactical level.

Wonder how many times the mediots will mention on the pregame shows the PSI of footballs, vs. the allegations of HGH use by Peyton*...

For some reason the "Manning Royalty" trumps most common sense, after listening last week about "great" Manning looked, gotta wonder how they will script this week.. oh look there is Archie in some booth, what a man

luuked said:

Very good point.

Then again wouldn't it be just awesome for them to dare us to run and SJax actually runs over them? Not that I'm expecting it but all in all he is still a big unknown.

Will be a fascinating game on a tactical level.

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As has been mentioned, this game is going to be decided by who wins the battle, our offense or their defense.

Don't think we'll run over them because their run D is the real deal, but we'll run enough to keep them honest even if marginally.

A few things to look out for:

This will be Manning's first back to back game in a long time- he had two weeks off prior to the game against the Steelers to heal up, but has no such luxury this week, so it'll be interesting to see how his arm responds.

We really need to close up the middle of the field and take away the comeback routes which is pretty much the last thing Manning has working for him. I really hope BB gambles and plays with a short field (extra man in the box for most of the game), with only a cover 1 as a safety gap because of Manning's lack of zip in his arm.

The big difference between the first game and this game is, IMO, the 3rd down conversion rate- it's going to be much better this time around with both Edelman and Amendola available, and I think we'll be able to tax their secondary by playing more of a horizontal game. Ben had 340 yards offense on a bum shoulder and no A. Brown because he kept hitting those low crossers, and I don't see how we don't do the same.

Wouldn't be surprised to see White have a big game.

luuked said:

I would not be terribly concerned about them playing suddenly a different kind of zone coverage even if it was successful for Seattle. It's one thing if a team plays this kind of defense very often like Seattle does but a complete different thing if a coordinator tries to install something like that within a week into a secondary that doesn't have that much experience with it. This just calls for 1-2 blown coverages during the game.

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I also don't think the Broncos have a safety like Earl Thomas or a corner like Sherman. Talib is great, especially in man coverage against "his" type of receiver, but overall Seahawks secondary just rallies to the ball so quickly. I think what helps too is having a Bobby Wagner type linebacker who is tremendous in coverage. Broncos don't have someone on his level either.

Don't get me wrong, this Denver D is excellent. But I'm with you, I don't see them suddenly switching their overall scheme and being able to do it consistently with great effect. As Patfanken brought up, I'm sure it's in their arsenal, but there's a difference between breaking it out now and again for certain situations, and using it as your "base" defense.

Jackson/White andOline run blocking will be the key. This sounds a lot more dramatic than really it is.Jackson, He doesnt need to put up 20 carries 110 yds and 2 TDs. He does however need to rip off a few 5+ yd gains. Denver's D is light and built with speed. I suspect they will be in Dime early....this is where Jackson punishing LBs and DBs comes into play....also Bradys patience in dumping off to White and letting our hogs race downfield to block will be key.

The only way the Pats can mess this up is by injury or bad game planning.

livinginthe past said:

On paper, this looks like a rout

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I don't see how this match-up "on paper, looks like a rout." On paper, Denver has a very legitimate defense, giving up an average of 18.5 points per game across the regular season, and only allowing one team (Pittsburgh) to score more than 30 points (34 points). No one really routed them all season long, even with their crappy offense and Peyton's interception extravaganza. We can quibble whether their defense indeed was the NFL's No. 1 defense (it was in points allowed, passing yards, and total yards, but stats can be misleading), but there can be no doubt that it was in somewhere in the Top 5 NFL defenses this year. And it happens to be a good match up against us: pass rush is very strong and pass defense is very strong. That alone, in my view, prevents it from being a rout on paper, regardless of Manning or the offensive woes.

I'm not "scared" of the Denver defense. I think a very similar game plan as to the one used against KC could be very effective. I think we win the game. It may well turn into a rout, like the Carolina - Seattle game (mostly), but no one would have said the Carolina - Seattle match-up was an expected rout on paper. Same thing here.

Sicilian said:

I also don't think the Broncos have a safety like Earl Thomas or a corner like Sherman. Talib is great, especially in man coverage against "his" type of receiver, but overall Seahawks secondary just rallies to the ball so quickly. I think what helps too is having a Bobby Wagner type linebacker who is tremendous in coverage. Broncos don't have someone on his level either.

Don't get me wrong, this Denver D is excellent. But I'm with you, I don't see them suddenly switching their overall scheme and being able to do it consistently with great effect. As Patfanken brought up, I'm sure it's in their arsenal, but there's a difference between breaking it out now and again for certain situations, and using it as your "base" defense.

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Yup. And why would they radically change their scheme, anyway? They have been extremely successful this year doing what they do against a wide variety of offenses. And they beat us this year already within their scheme. I know, I know, we were without Edelman and Amendola, among others, and they will say they were without TJ Ward and Williams, but the bottom-line is that I'm sure they suspect their scheme can contain us or make us a one-dimensional passing-only offense. I bet they also believe that, unlike KC without Houston (mostly), Miller and Ware can get to Brady under those circumstances. I'm not so sure they are wrong about Miller, who, by far, is the player of greatest concern from my end. I would chip him and double-team him on every single pass play. I'll take my chances with Ware, who appears to be more gassed as the game goes on.

PP2 said:

A few things to look out for:

This will be Manning's first back to back game in a long time- he had two weeks off prior to the game against the Steelers to heal up, but has no such luxury this week, so it'll be interesting to see how his arm responds.

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I think this is a HUGE deal. PM threw 37 times during the game but countless more that were on the sideline and negated by penalty. Considering that his arm strength is clearly weak and we already have evidence that he get fatigued when the pitch count goes up, it is absolutely a story. I'm sure that they will monitor his throwing this week.

PP2 said:

Wouldn't be surprised to see White have a big game.

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When you have JE, Gronk, DA, LaFell and now Martin for some of the intermediate/deep throws, I can understand why White is sometimes the forgotten man in this offense but since December he has 30 catches and averaging 12yds a catch. When that guy gets the ball in the open field he is a serious threat.

DENs LBs are decent in coverage but splitting White out similar to the Bolden play during the regular season would be interesting to see. The dude has wheels.