The Chiefs present the Patriots with several challenges.
1. The pass rush. KC has an excellent pass rush, finishing 4th in the NFL in sacks with 47. They don't do it with one dominant player you can scheme around. They do it from all over, with 7 players accumulating at least 4 sacks on the season. They come at you from all directions, with speed and power. The Patriots' offensive line has had all sorts of problems late in the year dealing with good defensive fronts, and the Chiefs will present a major obstacle for them. The OL will have to play a very good game for the Pats to win.
2. The secondary is a great group of cover guys. Led by Marcus Peters at corner, they held opposing quarterbacks to just 57.5% completions (#2 in the NFL), and also had 22 interceptions (also #2 in the NFL). So they pressure the quarterback and they cover really, really well. That's going to be a very difficult combination for any team to overcome. Peters alone had 8 interceptions. In their last 11 games, here's the passing yards they've allowed: 192, 195, 152, 149, 286, 262, 236, 273, 136, 157, 112 (195 per game average). That's very, very impressive. It's going to be hard to throw on them.
3. Alex Smith and his running. He's not a "running" QB that struggles to throw, where you'd feel comfortable putting a spy on him, willing to take that spy out of coverage. Smith is accurate with his arm, so losing a guy in pass coverage in order to spy on him opens up passing lanes. So you don't want to spy on him, but he's a very capable runner. 84 rushes, 498 yards (5.9 avg). During the regular season you don't want your QB running around out there too much because you don't want him taking 150 hits a year. But in a playoff game, where if you lose you go home, QBs tend to go for it a little more. Accounting for Smith's running ability will be a very real challenge.
4. The running game. They run very interesting concepts in their ground attack. They have, even without Jamaal Charles, very capable runners. West (634 yds, 4.0 avg) and Ware (403 yds, 5.6 avg) are a handful. The Pats have to shut down the Chiefs' running game on Saturday.
So here's how I think the Patriots will win on Saturday.
1. Short, quick passes. The time the Pats' have taken to throw with Edelman out has been significantly longer than when he was playing. His presence changes how the Patriots attack defenses. The OL will not likely be able to hold up for a long time, so the Pats will have to get the ball out quickly. Of course, expect the Chiefs to play press coverage and try to disrupt the Pats' pass routes. So the Pats should counter by running Edelman in motion and use a lot of, ahem, pick plays to free their receivers up. Short, quick darts all over the field. The Pats will need to adopt a game plan like they employed against the Seahawks in the Super Bowl.
2. James White isolated in space. Take advantage of the aggressive Chiefs' pass rush and get the ball to White in space. He has shown excellent pass-catching ability. Get him in space and make the Chiefs cover him one-on-one, and White should win most of those battles.
3. Hightower and Collins need big games. Not only to blitz, but to keep an eye on Smith. And also, they need to be big in the run game. Control the running game, get after Smith, and, on occasion, cover Kelce. Fortunately, Hightower and Collins are both outstanding linebackers with the ability to do all that. I think they turn these guys loose and we'll see them all over the field on Saturday.
So the keys as I see them: Short passes using motion and picks, getting James White in space, and the two LBs having big games.
1. The pass rush. KC has an excellent pass rush, finishing 4th in the NFL in sacks with 47. They don't do it with one dominant player you can scheme around. They do it from all over, with 7 players accumulating at least 4 sacks on the season. They come at you from all directions, with speed and power. The Patriots' offensive line has had all sorts of problems late in the year dealing with good defensive fronts, and the Chiefs will present a major obstacle for them. The OL will have to play a very good game for the Pats to win.
2. The secondary is a great group of cover guys. Led by Marcus Peters at corner, they held opposing quarterbacks to just 57.5% completions (#2 in the NFL), and also had 22 interceptions (also #2 in the NFL). So they pressure the quarterback and they cover really, really well. That's going to be a very difficult combination for any team to overcome. Peters alone had 8 interceptions. In their last 11 games, here's the passing yards they've allowed: 192, 195, 152, 149, 286, 262, 236, 273, 136, 157, 112 (195 per game average). That's very, very impressive. It's going to be hard to throw on them.
3. Alex Smith and his running. He's not a "running" QB that struggles to throw, where you'd feel comfortable putting a spy on him, willing to take that spy out of coverage. Smith is accurate with his arm, so losing a guy in pass coverage in order to spy on him opens up passing lanes. So you don't want to spy on him, but he's a very capable runner. 84 rushes, 498 yards (5.9 avg). During the regular season you don't want your QB running around out there too much because you don't want him taking 150 hits a year. But in a playoff game, where if you lose you go home, QBs tend to go for it a little more. Accounting for Smith's running ability will be a very real challenge.
4. The running game. They run very interesting concepts in their ground attack. They have, even without Jamaal Charles, very capable runners. West (634 yds, 4.0 avg) and Ware (403 yds, 5.6 avg) are a handful. The Pats have to shut down the Chiefs' running game on Saturday.
So here's how I think the Patriots will win on Saturday.
1. Short, quick passes. The time the Pats' have taken to throw with Edelman out has been significantly longer than when he was playing. His presence changes how the Patriots attack defenses. The OL will not likely be able to hold up for a long time, so the Pats will have to get the ball out quickly. Of course, expect the Chiefs to play press coverage and try to disrupt the Pats' pass routes. So the Pats should counter by running Edelman in motion and use a lot of, ahem, pick plays to free their receivers up. Short, quick darts all over the field. The Pats will need to adopt a game plan like they employed against the Seahawks in the Super Bowl.
2. James White isolated in space. Take advantage of the aggressive Chiefs' pass rush and get the ball to White in space. He has shown excellent pass-catching ability. Get him in space and make the Chiefs cover him one-on-one, and White should win most of those battles.
3. Hightower and Collins need big games. Not only to blitz, but to keep an eye on Smith. And also, they need to be big in the run game. Control the running game, get after Smith, and, on occasion, cover Kelce. Fortunately, Hightower and Collins are both outstanding linebackers with the ability to do all that. I think they turn these guys loose and we'll see them all over the field on Saturday.
So the keys as I see them: Short passes using motion and picks, getting James White in space, and the two LBs having big games.
