I expect to see a heavy, heavy passing offense

I expect the Patriots will go back to their winning plan from the 2014 postseason and just not bother trying to run the ball (exception, Indianapolis, where the personnel was too good to pass up). Their offensive line is weaker than last year, their running backs are weaker than last year, and in particular, their short-yardage run game must be among the league's worst. Their interior line cannot block and they find themselves constantly in 2nd and 9.

I don't think the playaction is going to work. Teams don't care if the Patriots get a "big gain" in the Patriots running game sense, which is about six yards. They won't bite on handoff fakes and will just take their chances on blowing up the run despite not being aggressive at the snap.

Combine this with Brady's recent ankle injury, and taking snaps from the center seems like a poor idea; better to play the game out of shotgun with four wideouts/TEs with White in the backfield sometimes flexing out wide. The Patriots can likely counter some strong pass rushes by spreading the field and forcing linebackers and safeties move back. I'm not sure if they can have a "quick passing" game like before, as a lot of that depends on the matchups and their skill player injuries.

So, I think the Patriots are going to just pass, pass, pass, and stop worrying about developing a dual threat. The Patriots running game will be used only when the defense is badly disrespecting the run and in some short yardage situations.

I fully expect to see Brady's attempt to approach 50 per game going forward.

I disagree I think we need balance and KC isnt that stout vs the run checking stats they are just behind us.. Alfred Blue had a pretty good game last week.

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Rushing Yards per Game on TeamRankings.com

They are top 4 vs the pass they have a good secondary.

KC has at least 2 very good/excellent corners in Peters and Steve Smith. They also have an excellent Safety in Eric Berry and their LBers aren't push-overs either.

The key, imho, will be the O-line as well as Edelman. I would be very surprised if they went so pass heavy as you mention. The reason being is that I believe that their running game with Vollmer at LT is much better than you give it credit for.

Telegraphing plays like you suggest will put the onus on the Patriots to be perfect.. Will Edelman be big part of this game? Yep. So will Gronk. So will Amendola and White. And I believe that Jackson will be used as a receiving threat as well to shake things up..

Dagg said:

I disagree I think we need balance and KC isnt that stout vs the run checking stats they are just behind us.. Alfred Blue had a pretty good game last week.

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Rushing Yards per Game on TeamRankings.com

They are top 4 vs the pass they have a good secondary.

Click to expand...

I see this more about the Patriots offensive strengths and weaknesses than the Chiefs defense.

I can't believe there are Pats fans still holding out hope for a respectable rushing attack. I'm with the OP, I think they'll quickly give up on the ground game. It's bad right now. Like 1994 bad.

It's always a matchup-based game plan. Belichick takes what the defense gives him. If he feels that Jackson and the O-line is good enough to get the job done then he'll absolutely go run heavy early.

The Chiefs are phenomenal on pass defense, top 2-3 in the league I believe, and top 3 in defending tight ends. Run defense is only average. To me that says he'll try running it early to see how effective it is. Gronk or an extra O-lineman will help with run blocking, or 3 TE sets. Either way that sets up play action for later, but if running works early then they stick with until it doesn't.

I agree that the running game has been bad recently but my guess is that Belichick installs it in practice to see how it goes and will only go pass heavy if this week of run practice is horrendous.

I could see some screen passes as de facto runs though, not sure how KC typically handles those.

I don't expect kneel downs before halftime. If I see that I'm going to lose it unless they are up big.

Empty backfield
Make Chiefs defense commit
Profit

Of course, that assumes the IOL can do something other than play the role of 3 turnstiles

My guess is come out in exclusively pass looks for the first few drives then start pounding Jackson.

One thing I should have mentioned in my original post is the Patriots do not have a conventional pass offense, at least when they have their guys healthy. So, you can say a team is top-2, top-3 and has a great secondary and pass defense, but the Patriots typically throw concepts at them they aren't used to seeing. Most of the opponents the Chiefs have seen, like anyone, involves two athletic outside receivers. The Patriots offense often gives fits to teams who can defend traditional concepts just fine. Not saying the Chiefs are going to get destroyed or anything, but the Patriots often (1) use the middle of the field more than other teams, (2) have an all-world tight end who draws more coverage from players who don't usually double in that area, (3) lineup players nearly everywhere, using Gronk, Edelman, and Amendola on the outside and inside and using White in space, and (4) use the passing game as their running game with short screens and dump offs. These are things that are fairly unique to the Patriots offense, at least in their frequency and effectiveness.

Sort of agree with your post OP, I do think though that they know that Edelman wil be 90 percent (or lets just assume for the sake of argument he is).

Those KC boys up front are gonna be coming after Brady until they know Edelman can be a factor, or at least that is what I would do as a coach.

We have seen in the past around here the attempt at going to a bit of a running game, it not going anywhere and us ending up losing. After this scenario happened we asked ourselves in hindsight 'why did we stay with the run, it was sucking'

I am and always have been a firm believer that if they can't get those vertical routes goin' (what some people refer to as good as a run), then those guys are coming for 12. They are coming either way, but with less of a percentage if the vertical passing game and/or run is working.

I think establishing that run game will be vital to this team and I hope I can hear Bellichick saying, like we have all heard him say in those behind the scene videos, that whenever the RB sees daylight he hits it right then and there.

I think you need two separate types of run games (1) an elusive back that keeps their D on the field and (2) a pounding back that wears them out in the 4th. This strategy, combined with home field, would make it real tough for KC to get the win.

IMHO ...

Weather forecast is rain or possibly freezing rain and low to Mid 30's. Not ideal conditions for the game plan you suggest.

So we're not going to line Chandler Jones up in the Wildcat? (The Bill O'Brien special)

I think Steven Jackson plays a big role in this game. He brings something that Blount didn't... He's a receiving threat from the backfield.

I think letting Brady have the option to run when he see's that he can with Jackson and also take advantage of getting him the ball out of the backfield too.

Tuck said:

Weather forecast is rain or possibly freezing rain and low to Mid 30's.

Click to expand...

Perfect condition for Brady, then

Dagg said:

I disagree I think we need balance and KC isnt that stout vs the run checking stats they are just behind us.. Alfred Blue had a pretty good game last week.

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Rushing Yards per Game on TeamRankings.com

They are top 4 vs the pass they have a good secondary.

Click to expand...

**** balance! Do what works. This is the playoffs and we ain't got time to be messing around with failed tactics. I wanna live and die with the ball in brady's hands. We have no run game. I have accepted this.

I think their plan of attack is going to be very similar to last year's Super Bowl. Missing Lewis obviously hurts but I think White is capable of stepping up and having a big game, especially on 3rd downs. If our OLine can at least be serviceable I think we have a pretty good shot at this one. Chiefs have a good defense, but their offense is going to be one dimensional when we shut Kelce down.

Dagg said:

I disagree I think we need balance and KC isnt that stout vs the run checking stats they are just behind us.. Alfred Blue had a pretty good game last week.

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Rushing Yards per Game on TeamRankings.com

They are top 4 vs the pass they have a good secondary.

Click to expand...

KC is ranked 8th vs the run allowing 98.2 YPG, I haven't gone through each game to see what they have faced for running games. I for one am not of the opinion that White, Jackson and Bolden are going to win this game on the ground. I'm going with the GOAT, Jules, Gronk, Dola and White in the passing game.

However, KC is ranked 9th in the league in passing. And that is vs what would be the 19th ranked passing offense in the league if you go by their opponents passing YPG against teams other than KC.

They are good and they have good players in the secondary, I'm not trying to knock them down or anything. But I started diving into the numbers to get a better feel for them.

KC is holding teams to 4.5 YPG below their season average (average is calculated by subtracting games vs KC). That is not overly impressive. It says more about the teams they played then it does them IMO. Below is a game by game breakdown.

slam said:

So we're not going to line Chandler Jones up in the Wildcat? (The Bill O'Brien special)

Click to expand...

Alan Branch in the Big Cat.

I want to see them be a lot more unpredictable. The passing game is unlikely to have instant rhythm. Jackson looks good to me. Let's loosen them up with a variety of attacks.