Jane Doe's first offseason mock

Well, I couldnt help myself. Here is my first try at 2016.

For awhile I had no interest in this offseason with the robbery of our top pick, but as I have taken a step back, this summer could be one of the most interesting offseasons in quite some time. Not just because of the players available, but with a few moves, the amount of money the Pats could have at their disposal. Some of these ideas will be dismissed as pie in the sky, and possibly they are, but at least by the numbers, they do fit.

So, all comments are welcome, and disagreeing is always welcome. Differing opinions is why we do these useless things to begin with.

cut:
Mayo
Amendola
Cannon
Chandler

I can see Mayo and Amendola as possible restructures once again given BBs affinity for both, but taking pay cuts in successive seasons may be a lot to ask of both. They are both guys you want on your team, I just dont know if its justifiable with the other dollars that are going to be spent this offseason. Cannon and Chandler are much easier players to let go, as replacements will be found in the draft.

players re-signed:
Hicks: 3yr 10million. I have been incredibly impressed so far with the physical skills and ferocity that he plays with. Its almost scary to think that we got him for what was likely a 7th round comp pick. I love that he bridges the gap between our interior line players, sharing the size of Branch, the attacking of Easley and the balance of Brown. The one guy I hope we dont let get away.

Keyshawn Martin:
2yr 2mill: A good depth signing that we know can play on sunday and we know that Brady trusts. A very cheap insurance policy that is worth offering to make sure he is there for camp battles.

Tarell Brown:
1yr 1.5mil: Had a great camp and start to camp. Someone who is quickly forgotten, but is a pro that showed he can play in this defense, and probably wont cost much to bring back, at least for camp competition.

Nate Ebner:
3yr 3mil: Has been player more and more on defense, but he is our leader on special teams. Slater is a ST savant, but Ebner is now the leader in special team snaps, and by a good margin. To illustrate how much he has played this year, hes been on the field more often than Mayo, who has started some games over the last month.

James Develin:
1yr 700k: A guy who played a large amount of snaps at a position we havent had in a number of years, so you know the coaching staff and obviously Brady value what he brings. The question will be health and how he handles returning from a (somtimes) debilitating injury for such a physical position.

ERFA qualified:
Coleman
King
Iosefa
Fleming
R. Johnson

extensions:

Sheard 4yr 26million
With one year down, he has proven himself to be everything we had hoped he would be. He has shown the ability to hold up in the run. This gives him more long term security, and lowers his current deal by almost 2 million.

Hightower 5yr 50million
Sounds like a lot of money, because it is. He is of course, worth every penny. If there is one player who showed themselves to have no comparable on the roster, hightowers loss has been felt the most. He directs the traffic, but having the smarts to know when to pressure, shutting down all running game, and having lost some weight to let him hold up in coverage, he really is the complete linebacker. His deal may end up being less than this, but the market rate for top level ILBs is here, especially coming up on a 7mill+ option year. This contract will lower his current cap number down almost 2 mill.

Collins: 5yr 42million
He is the probowler of the two ILBs, but he also has less leverage with the smaller rookie deal. They really are thunder and lightning, and they work so much better together. I can go on all day about Collins, but I think its safe to say that his best football is still ahead. His cap hit will increase by 3mil this season.

Butler/Ryan
Butler is going to be really interesting this summer. He could just play out all his option years on his contract (3) but I cant imagine he would be thrilled with that given his ranking among the best in the league. I wonder if they may offer him a Gronk type contract, that is really two deals in one. Maybe 7yr 49 total deal, with an option after the first 3 seasons that kicks in the serious money seasons? Something to watch, with a player who has vaulted himself in to the conversation of the very best in the league.

Ryan may be seen as an easier signing that could put pressure on Butler to take an earlier deal, but that is just guess work. I wonder if Ryan may be a guy they try and lock up before his market explodes next summer. 4yr 20mill or so seems like an interesting option if they view him part of the long term plans.

trades:
Chandler Jones

chicago
2106 2nd
2017 1st
This is a trade somewhat modeled after the Jared Allen trade several years ago between KC and Minny. Both players are considered top level players at their position, still entering their primes that gives one team a defensive anchor. Many will question the trading of the best edge player since Willie, but if we were to move on, I see it for a package similar to this. I would argue he is going to become a very very deservedly rich man, but I have my doubts that he will get all those dollars from the Pats with so much skill up for new deals. Players for picks trades are usually rare, especially for such a player, but did my best to avoid homeristic valuation.

Brandon Lafell
4th

Atl
4th

This is just a move up trade, with a player who could be cut otherwise. I think he carries some value on his current deal, but I was looking to upgrade. Is a great fit on Atlanta as a potential 3rd option opposite of Jones and as a Roddy White replacement.

1/2

2/2

Free agency:

Chris Ivory:
4yr 16mill
Ivory has been a very effective back this year as a first time lead back, and he has a lot of miles left on him. He is both physical and skilled, being able to slot in as a power back, but also decent receiver skills. He is getting Vereen money, which is what 2nd tier backs seem to get on the market, which would fit the bill for Ivory.

Chris Long
3yr 18mil
Chris Long is one of the most likely cap casualties this offseason, and see him fitting in very well with our brand of football. He can be moved all around much like Sheard, with some very good pass rushing skills. If he hadnt been injured this year and last, the price would be far out of range, but he is a bit of a risk/reward signing. He could be a really good piece to replace what is lost from trading Jones.

Calvin Johnson
2yr 32mil/ 4yr 50mill
This will obviously raise a lot of questions, but I dont think its all that far fetched. By all accounts, the Lions are going to be going in a very different direction this offseason, and no one really knows what that means. Johnson has been hands off on any statement about staying with the Lions, which is interesting at the stage. He is still very much in the conversation of best receivers in football, but the last two years do not match his highwater mark seasons that preceded them. As for the dollars, I gave two options, one was the Revis-type 2nd season opt out if he wants to try and maximize his value. The other is your value in line with other top wideouts. One other side of this, if McDaniels does move on this summer as the speculation leads us to believe, having a true outside receiver, a true slot receiver and top tight end will make life infinitely easier for any OC to step in to. Brady can play with anyone, but could you imagine what he could do with Johnson, Gronk Edelman and Ivory/Lewis in the backfield?

The biggest question will be if he goes for the very top dollar, because a team like the Raiders will definitely have the most money available. I just dont see anyone on our level with available dollars, role, and championship caliber talent.

Other guys to monitor
Mario Williams
Charles Johnson
Cameron Wake
Barkevious Mingo
Marvin Jones


And....the draft

2nd OT Jason Spriggs Indiana- 6'7 300lbs


There is a lot of groupthink that happens on any board like this, so apologies if much of this isnt new. Spriggs in my opinion is as close to a Vollmer clone as you will see in college football. He has great footwork, great length and bend. He could end up moving up on the board, but i wonder if his lack of girth will keep him low enough for us to grab him in the Low 2nd range. Could be a 10 year starter, but could be the perfect swing tackle to start his career. If BB felt comfortable, I wouldnt even be surprised to see him win the job outright from Vollmer, but I wont put that pressure on him in this mock.

2nd TE Hunter Henry Arkansas 6'5 255lbs


One of my favourite part of mocks is guessing where the team will make adjustments moving forward. One thing we have seen a lot more this year and I imagine moving forward, is Gronk being used more frequently as the move TE. While its incredible to think of a man of Gronks size and physique being a move TE, it doesnt allow for as much surprise when he is spread out wide. I picture the team looking at a TE that could be used inline and also in the slot, to allow the mirror TEs to take advantage of mismatches more effectively. Henry is a bit of Eifert and a bit of Heath Miller. There isnt one thing he is spectacular at, but there is not a thing he doesnt do well. Just about the most well rounded TE in the last couple drafts.

3rd WR Braxton Miller Ohio St. 6'2 215lb


@manxman2601 has been on this for awhile, but I think the idea if well thought out. We will need someone who can play both inside and outside, but may not need an immediate effect this coming season. He has serious athleticsm, but I like manx view of him as a potential larger Amendola. They are both strong tough and quick guys, with Miller having more size and less experience. If he has time to find his legs, he could be a great addition, and even just as a few specialty sets/trick plays even.

3rd SS Myles Killebrew Southern Utah 6'3 230lbs OR FS/CB James Bradberry Samford 6'1 205lbs

I will leave this decision to you, but I see these as the two different types of safety choices.


I let Tavon Wilson go earlier, so Killebrew could become the in-house Chung replacement if he develops. He already has the size to handle the box and TEs, the question will be if his athleticsm will be able to carry over from small school to big stage. There is a lot to like here.


Bradberry on the other end, where he would be the in-house Harmon replacement/McCourty insurance. If you look at his tape, at some points he looks like the third McCourty brother. He has good length, high end athleticsm and very quick feet. He has played corner so far, so its more a question on whether he can play as the safety valve for the defense. He could be a great depth player who has the skillset that could work as an extra CB when needed as well.

4th ILB Terrance Smith Florida State 6'4 245


high level athleticsm. position of need. 4 down potential. multiple positional flexibility. Champion.

Binkie.

I have said enough about him in other posts, but I think he is the clearest match between need and cost. Our team seems to dip noticeably when we lose one of our linebackers with athleticsm. I think its incredibly important to give us better depth, but also a guy who could be moved around in other situations.

5th CB Will Likely Maryland 5'7 175lbs


Long live the Mini-badger. I have a feeling this guy will end up being a few peoples binkie, if he ends up declaring. I will start out with the obvious, he is very small for corner in the NFL. While thats true, he plays much larger than his height would let you believe. As manx noted, the Pats love guys who get their hands on passes, and Likely gets his hands on a ton of balls. 16 Pass breakups and 6 ints as a sophmore are incredible numbers, but he didnt get quite the same amount of chances this past year and ended with 11. What I havent mentioned, he is arguably the best punt/kick returner in college football, with both punt and kick return touchdowns in the last 3 years. His agility is so Edelmanesque, so much so i would bet dollars to donuts he wins the 3cone by a landslide at the combine. With Edelman becoming more and more important to the offense, we need to find a potential replacement to bring back punts, or at least not drop them every week.

6th RB Keenan Reynolds Navy 5'11 195lbs



We have all talked about him a lot and its almost a running joke, but it actually does make some sense. We are getting to the point in the draft where most of these players wont be active roster players. With Reynolds military demands, he could start his career on NFI, and possbly only be ready in three seasons. That sounds like a long time commitment, but I really believe this kid has something special. His speed is legit, as is his acceleration agility and toughness. A worthy flier at this stage

6th RB/WR Byron Marshall oregon 5'9 205lbs


Not often do you find a player as diverse as Marshall. Came to Oregon as a running back, ran for a 1000 yards, got moved to receiver and caught a 1000 yards. Was shaping up for another strong year with a new QB, but an unkown (probably knee) injury ended his season. He could put up incredible numbers at the combine comparable to Miller/reynolds, but its a total unknown if he will be ready. He isnt just an athlete though. Hes a talented route runner with true football speed, and a very dedicated downfield blocker. Hes also a very strong kick returner in his own right. He could end up going a round or two higher, but it depends on where he is in his recovery come workouts.

7th DE Theiren ****ran Minnesota 6'6 265lbs


At this point, you are just throwing darts, and Cochran is a total enigma. He was being talked about as a future first rounder after his sophmore season with 7.5 sacks and 10 TFL's. But, since then, the numbers have gone down, and seeimingly without explanation. Hes a physical marvel and doesnt lack anything athletically, but its hard to see what is missing. He seems like a prime candidate for a year in training, since the toolbox is already there.

7th trade
Move this pick to a future year since we have limited spots already

7th OT
whoever fell, whoever might still be able to battle with Fleming for 4th tackle.

There will be many camp battles, and lots of special teams roles that will need to be filled, but the basics of it look like this for next year.

Offense:25
QB (2): Brady, Garoppolo
RB (4): Ivory, Lewis, White, Bolden
FB (1): Develin/Iosefa
TE (3): Gronk, Henry, Williams
WR (6): Johnson, Edelman, Miller, Slater, Dobson/Martin/Marshall
OT (4): Solder, Vollmer, Spriggs, Fleming
OG (3): Mason, Kline, Jackson
C (2): Stork, Andrews

Defense: 25
CB (5) Butler, Ryan, Brown, Lively, Johnson/Hill/Richards
FS (3) McCourty, Harmon, Bradberry
SS (3) Chung, Richards, Ebner
DT (4) Brown, Hicks, Easley, Branch
DE (5) Sheard, Ninko, Long, Flowers, Grissom
LB (5) Hightower, Collins, Freeney, Smith, Bostic

ST: 3
Ghostkowski
Cardona
Allen

Depending on what you decide to do with Butler/Logan and whether you bring back Mayo/Amendola, all of this brings our cap to between 7-15mill cap space still available, leaving extra money available for in season adjustments and more long term planning. Pretty great cheering for the greatest team of this generation, and the smartest. It certainly makes off season mock ups a lot more fun when you have a championship calibre roster to start with, and still have plenty of dollars left to rebuild any deficiencies.

Good stuff!

First the quibbles:

1. It would be nice to dream, but I really don't think Calvin would ever happen. As you acknowledged, there will always be a team willing to pay him more than BB.
2. The Chandler Jones trade is more likely to happen and I don't think he's a lock beyond 2016, I just think they ride him for another year and get a comp pick for him if they don't resign him. Having said that, re-signing him might be the best play purely because it cuts his cap cost for next year and they can afford him beyond that. Of course, if he's asking for Justin Houston type money, he's probably a goner.
3. Does Chris Long offer the ability to play inside on passing downs? My hunch would be that BB would sign someone who could move inside as Chandler does. Otherwise that would leave 3 players (Nink, Flowers, signing as pure EDGE players).
4. No need to say how I'd feel about signing Marvin Jones. Would love that!

I love your Sheard, Hightower, Collins extensions and can see Keshawn Martin being extended too. Aside from it being a little unrealistic in my view, I love the FA ideas. Now onto the draft:

1. Obviously any mock that includes Braxton Miller is a winner.
2. Still need to watch Spriggs but am hearing good things. Would like him to come in at 315 or better at the combine for him to be a better Pats fit. Also, just looking at pictures of him, his arms look to be in the 32"-33" range rather 34" plus. Not optimal, but probably not a red flag either.
3. Yet to watch Bradberry but I do think the FS type is probably the better fit than a SS unless they plan on keeping Harmon after next year.

At the end of the day, your new team would probably be better than the current team and that's the point. My only area of concern would be wondering what affect losing Chandler has over Chris Long/Tre Flowers.

But it's well thought out, well written and has an appealing mock. Good job.

Oops! Didn't realise you hadn't finished.

1. I had ****ran in a mock last year funnily enough. Excellent size and enough talent to be worth a late flyer.
2. I can absolutely see Keenan Reynolds happening. Senior Bowl will be big for him. Can he take a handoff, can he block etc.
3. Likely and Marshall make sense although it'd be a struggle to find a spot on the final 53 for them. But with so many late round picks to mock that's an inevitability.
4. I'd like to see another outside CB though beyond Tarrell Brown. Ryan has a contract situation coming up and Roberts is untested. Another outside press corner still makes sense over a, potentially, 4th slot corner in Likely.

Excellent mock.

BTW, swap Mario Williams or Cam Wake for Long and you'd have an off-season for the ages (as far as the Pats go anyway). Would be a very exciting Spring.

Thanks for the kind words, its just nice to get some ideas out of my head and on paper.

The Calvin thing is really making me think. Usually I just write off the big names as non-starters, but I do wonder about the appeal to a team like the Pats for him. Hes done the rebuilding thing, been the face of the franchise, and the highest paid. If he is willing to leave that, is he really going to Oakland? Tennessee? Seems like the type of guy who could end up on a one year deal just to re-set himself as the best at his position. Doesnt have to be the Pats, but I dont see any of the other contenders having the role and dollars available. It is highly unlikely, but not that total non-starter I would usually assume. The Revis signing has made all of these possible to some extent, and there are even some similarities between the two players.

In regards to Chandler Jones, The problem with any type of extensions is figuring how much players are willing to take. If he really was willing to take 10mill per, I think hes back no questions asked. He is just having a remarkable season right when he has a ton of leverage for a new deal, at a position that usually requires much higher dollars. I think Clay Matthews is the minimum at 13.5mill, and I just cant wrap my mind around that amount.

I think if hes traded this summer, we could maximize the trade asset, while getting a serviceable replacement talent. I had flirted with Mario Williams, given how much BB loved Peppers and the similarities between the two, but I couldnt just put every big name on the team. Had to leave a little room for reality.

For the draft, the Spriggs arm point is interesting. He seems to be able to disengage easily, and his rerouting is very seamless, but those types of issues will get magnified against the real athletes.

I really like Marshall and Likely, but you are right, its going to be hard for anyone after the 4th round to crack the roster. We could see some pieces get shipped off for future picks just to get down to 53 men. I was looking as much as possible for guys who played ST or had recent injuries, to see if they may get PUPed or IRed for the year. Guys are going to have to have something extra to make this roster next year.

Its going to be a pretty incredible 2016 roster no matter what they plan on doing.

Spriggs is perfect for a zone blocking scheme like ours.

No way do I want Ivory at 4mill, the guy gets dinged up to much for me.

#1. I want Harrison from the jets. I like Branch, But Harrsion I love.
#2 I want Dwayne Allen, coming off a bad season, but Chandler is a huge disapointment and Allen can block in line.
#3 Lamar Miller,

patman52 said:

No way do I want Ivory at 4mill, the guy gets dinged up to much for me.

#1. I want Harrison from the jets. I like Branch, But Harrsion I love.
#2 I want Dwayne Allen, coming off a bad season, but Chandler is a huge disapointment and Allen can block in line.
#3 Lamar Miller,

Click to expand...

Has chandler under performed or are we not using him in double te sets properly?

Ochmed Jones said:

Has chandler under performed or are we not using him in double te sets properly?

Click to expand...

both and people here thought he was going to be Hernandez 2.0

meatface said:

both and people here thought he was going to be Hernandez 2.0

Click to expand...

Seems like most people thought that with him and gronkowski, they would be awesome red zone weapons.

I thought I read on this board somewhere that despite all the extra work between Brady/gronkowski/chandler, that chandler was having problems picking up the option routes.

My visions of Calvin Johnson in a pats jersey is now running rampant on the main board.

It wasn't even my fault, I can't even take credit. Just a well placed retirement rumour.