Steven Jackson!

TomPatriot said:

FWIW, the guy recently was working on half-squats at 600+.

Here's a video of him from last month. Explosive Training

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Nah, that video is about 4 years old I think. He was with the Rams when they shot that. His dreadlocks were cut early summer this year FYI.
This is what he said when he cut the locks, as he termed it this year:

If I am going to play, it has to make sense for me. It has to be for the right situation, the right opportunity and the right team.

In the meantime, I'm still training. My routine has not changed as far as that goes. My commitment and the rigor of my regimen has not changed. It’s been important to me to remain consistent in that through this offseason.

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I don't know how much has in the tank, but he is intelligent. Probably as intelligent as any Patriots we have ever had. Picking the offense will not be the the issue, driving his legs will be the only thing that may be an issue.

rochrist said:

And yet, somehow, despite all our pronouncements, he still averaged 4.3 yards a carry.

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But what's the distribution of his runs? Just because he averaged 4.3ypc doesn't necessarily mean he can reliably pick up tough yards.

As an extreme example to make the point about how average YPC on its own isn't all that valuable a stat, an RB who always gets exactly 3.5yds on every carry (and thus averages 3.5ypc) is rather more valuable than a RB who gets stuffed 19 out of 20 times but gets an 80 yarder that one time (and so averages 4.0ypc).

I imagine he's in the middle of the pack. If you're going to try and account for that stuff though, you ought to try to account for all the times the OL opened absolutely zero space for a run, because there's been plenty of that this year.

QuantumMechanic said:

But what's the distribution of his runs? Just because he averaged 4.3ypc doesn't necessarily mean he can reliably pick up tough yards.

As an extreme example to make the point about how average YPC on its own isn't all that valuable a stat, an RB who always gets exactly 3.5yds on every carry (and thus averages 3.5ypc) is rather more valuable than a RB who gets stuffed 19 out of 20 times but gets an 80 yarder that one time (and so averages 4.0ypc).

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I agree, and while much remains to be seen, there is reason to expect improved consistency from SJax over Blount on short yardage plays. While Blount has been ok on overall YPC, he has been much less effective on short yardage situations than he has been in the past. In particular, on 3rd/4th short yardage snaps Blount gave us 1.7 ypc, whereas last year in Atlanta SJax hit for 2.6 ypc. If SJax can do as well here, he will improve our 3rd and short rushing efficiency and extend drives by keeping the chains moving. That will be an important contribution even if he does not give us any 30-40 yard plays. But I wouldn't rule out big gains either; while SJax has lost a step or two, he is a load and a half for DBs.

I have noticed that anybody you ask to describe SJax always uses he is smart in the first two words.

vuudu said:

Nah, that video is about 4 years old I think. He was with the Rams when they shot that. His dreadlocks were cut early summer this year FYI.
This is what he said when he cut the locks, as he termed it this year:

If I am going to play, it has to make sense for me. It has to be for the right situation, the right opportunity and the right team.

In the meantime, I'm still training. My routine has not changed as far as that goes. My commitment and the rigor of my regimen has not changed. It’s been important to me to remain consistent in that through this offseason.​

I don't know how much has in the tank, but he is intelligent. Probably as intelligent as any Patriots we have ever had. Picking the offense will not be the the issue, driving his legs will be the only thing that may be an issue.

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So he's basically the anti-Montee Ball. Which explains why he's a HOF candidate with a long career behind him, and Ball was a 2nd round pick 2 years ago and is already hanging on the fringes of the league on our PS.

QuantumMechanic said:

But what's the distribution of his runs? Just because he averaged 4.3ypc doesn't necessarily mean he can reliably pick up tough yards.

As an extreme example to make the point about how average YPC on its own isn't all that valuable a stat, an RB who always gets exactly 3.5yds on every carry (and thus averages 3.5ypc) is rather more valuable than a RB who gets stuffed 19 out of 20 times but gets an 80 yarder that one time (and so averages 4.0ypc).

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The best stat I've seen for attempting to measure this is Football Outsiders' running back success rate. It grades every run as a success or failure based on yardage gained vs. down/distance. 2 yards on first and 10 is a fail, but 2 yards on 3rd and 1 is a success. 4 yards on 2nd and 7 is a success, but 4 yards on 2nd and 20 is a fail because the defense is basically giving you those yards, etc. An in-depth explanation can be found here, but the basic concept is pretty simple to grasp: FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Introducing Running Back Success Rate

Anyway, the 2015 rankings are here, and Blount ranked 6th in the league among players with 100+ rushes, at 52% success rate. Obviously this isn't anything close to an end-all stat, it's just a small part of the overall evaluation of a RB and doesn't account for how a RB is routinely used or anything like that. IIRC, Pats' RBs have consistently had really good success rates, in large part because defenses have to respect the passing game in every possible situation including third and short, and also because they don't get stuck in unfavorable situations very often. So I in no way believe that Blount is as good as his success rate indicates, but it does show that he was at least pretty good at picking up the yards he was supposed to. Better than I thought he would be, to be honest; before looking it up, I expected that his success rate wouldn't be especially good.

BradyFTW! said:

So he's basically the anti-Montee Ball. Which explains why he's a HOF candidate with a long career behind him, and Ball was a first round pick 2 years ago and is already hanging on the fringes of the league on our PS.

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Just to point out that Ball was a second rounder 58th overall. But still, he should have been in shape. Showing up for a workout with any NFL team at 24olbs on a 5-10 frame is not a good look for a RB.

vuudu said:

Just to point out that Ball was a second rounder 58th overall. But still, he should have been in shape. Showing up for a workout with any NFL team at 24olbs on a 5-10 frame is not a good look for a RB.

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My bad, dunno how/why I spaced that. Maybe because no RBs were taking in the first round, I dunno. Thanks for catching that.

A player of sjax age may not have a 16 game season in him...but if you are asking 4-5 games from him, i think he can perform.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a vintage sjax performance one game. Guy is running for a ring and retire

BradyFTW! said:

The best stat I've seen for attempting to measure this is Football Outsiders' running back success rate. It grades every run as a success or failure based on yardage gained vs. down/distance. 2 yards on first and 10 is a fail, but 2 yards on 3rd and 1 is a success. 4 yards on 2nd and 7 is a success, but 4 yards on 2nd and 20 is a fail because the defense is basically giving you those yards, etc. An in-depth explanation can be found here, but the basic concept is pretty simple to grasp: FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Introducing Running Back Success Rate

Anyway, the 2015 rankings are here, and Blount ranked 6th in the league among players with 100+ rushes, at 52% success rate. Obviously this isn't anything close to an end-all stat, it's just a small part of the overall evaluation of a RB and doesn't account for how a RB is routinely used or anything like that. IIRC, Pats' RBs have consistently had really good success rates, in large part because defenses have to respect the passing game in every possible situation including third and short, and also because they don't get stuck in unfavorable situations very often. So I in no way believe that Blount is as good as his success rate indicates, but it does show that he was at least pretty good at picking up the yards he was supposed to. Better than I thought he would be, to be honest; before looking it up, I expected that his success rate wouldn't be especially good.

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Also take a look at these FO stats - basically show Pats run block very well overall, but don't do great at "Power Success" (Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer.):

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2015 OFFENSIVE LINES

Brandon_Cox said:

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but ever since Nate went on IR, we've played 9 straight games without a first round pick on offense. That's a very odd statistic; I'm not sure if it's a good thing or a bad thing or even if it's worth mentioning. But whatever it is it will come to an end if SJ takes a snap.

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The only 3 situations I recall since 2008 during which Bill should've seriously considered using a 1st-rounder on offense are: LT Ryan Clady insead of Jerod Mayo in 2008; Pro-Bowler OG David DeCastro
instead of Hightower in 2012; and, most egregious of all, LG/LT Joel Bitonio instead of Dom Easily Injured in 2014. What a horrible, horrible waste of a 1st-rounder that was, as some of us correctly predicted.

captain stone said:

The only 3 situations I recall since 2008 during which Bill should've seriously considered using a 1st-rounder on offense are: LT Ryan Clady insead of Jerod Mayo in 2008; Pro-Bowler OG David DeCastro
instead of Hightower in 2012; and, most egregious of all, LG/LT Joel Bitonio instead of Dom Easily Injured in 2014. What a horrible, horrible waste of a 1st-rounder that was, as some of us correctly predicted.

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Couple of things:

- DeCastro was off the table by the time Hightower was taken. In fact, Pittsburgh's passing of Hightower (who seemed like a perfect fit for them) is what enabled the Pats to trade up, to ensure that the Ravens didn't get Hightower as he was sliding. All things being equal, I would take Hightower and what he's become to date versus DeCastro simply because of position scarcity.

- I find it amusing you're calling Easley an injury bust and comparing him to Bitonio, who went on IR the week before Easley did. You may say Bitonio's injury is a "freak" thing, but Easley's injury is supposedly unrelated to his ACL issues. Finally, Easley was dominant on the field when he played this year. Please let's wait another year before we call him a, "horrible, horrible waste of a 1st-rounder."

SlowGettingUp said:

Except I keep seeing our RB being hit in the backfield by some big DE type well behind the line of scrimmage. Maybe a true decisive N/S back might alleviate that some although it didn't seem to be that way with Blount.

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According to FO, that Patriot's have the lowest stuff rate in the league (the best) and are #4 in 2nd level yards. where they're bad in in open field yards (#28).

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2015 OFFENSIVE LINES

Kasmir said:

According to FO, that Patriot's have the lowest stuff rate in the league (the best) and are #4 in 2nd level yards. where they're bad in in open field yards (#28).

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Some of that might have to do with Lewis, who often made the guy trying to hit him in the backfield miss.

But yes, you might well be right that my memory is quite unreliable here - one tends to recall the times when the RB gets hit in the backfield a lot more than when the RB makes a couple of unmemorable yards.

Th3Birdman said:

However, I was pissed when we cut Williams. I don't think Bill gave him an opportunity to showcase what he can do. Not everyone shines in camp/practice/combine. We should have played him vs the Texans or Titans.

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Players that shine not at the combine nor camp nor practice get cut. You do not get put in to the game without practicing well.

Hammer of Thor said:

Couple of things:

- DeCastro was off the table by the time Hightower was taken. In fact, Pittsburgh's passing of Hightower (who seemed like a perfect fit for them) is what enabled the Pats to trade up, to ensure that the Ravens didn't get Hightower as he was sliding. All things being equal, I would take Hightower and what he's become to date versus DeCastro simply because of position scarcity.

- I find it amusing you're calling Easley an injury bust and comparing him to Bitonio, who went on IR the week before Easley did. You may say Bitonio's injury is a "freak" thing, but Easley's injury is supposedly unrelated to his ACL issues. Finally, Easley was dominant on the field when he played this year. Please let's wait another year before we call him a, "horrible, horrible waste of a 1st-rounder."

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Yeah agreed, very arrogant and stupid proclamation.

Jeff Howe ‏@jeffphowe 24m24 minutes ago

Steven Jackson's one-year deal didn't include a signing bonus. He'll earn $114,118. Pats' cap charge is $68,824 w/ Minimum Salary Benefit.

Hammer of Thor said:

Couple of things:

- DeCastro was off the table by the time Hightower was taken. In fact, Pittsburgh's passing of Hightower (who seemed like a perfect fit for them) is what enabled the Pats to trade up, to ensure that the Ravens didn't get Hightower as he was sliding. All things being equal, I would take Hightower and what he's become to date versus DeCastro simply because of position scarcity.

- I find it amusing you're calling Easley an injury bust and comparing him to Bitonio, who went on IR the week before Easley did. You may say Bitonio's injury is a "freak" thing, but Easley's injury is supposedly unrelated to his ACL issues. Finally, Easley was dominant on the field when he played this year. Please let's wait another year before we call him a, "horrible, horrible waste of a 1st-rounder."

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With Hightowet and Collins we have 2 of the best 5 (maybe 3) LB's in the game. I don't see how anyone can hate that pick.

Also, it sucks Easley ended up on IR again, but he was having a great season until that. If his body can hold up, hes going to be a stud player (similar to Aaron Donald) in this league.

Zuma said:

Jeff Howe ‏@jeffphowe 24m24 minutes ago

Steven Jackson's one-year deal didn't include a signing bonus. He'll earn $114,118. Pats' cap charge is $68,824 w/ Minimum Salary Benefit.

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that's it? he must be desperate to be on a winning team lol.