Patriots the #1 seed if they win either game?

SLGDEV · Dec 20, 2015

venecol said:
I just don't see Pats losing to Miami, they are truly pathetic.

nor losing to Philadelphia. Remember, "Any given Sunday"

Patsrock · Dec 20, 2015

Brady'sButtBoy said:
A few things -
The Steelers are in no matter what as long as they win one more game. They can't win their division.
The Broncos could still be out entirely if the Bengals beat them next week.
The Pats losing to the Jets and beating the Dolphins instead would make it more likely the Broncos would be out.
The Steelers would get the creampuff wildcard game of all-time at Houston should the Bengals beat Denver.

If Jets win out and KC wins out and Steelers lose a game. Jets and KC would be 11-5 and Steelers 10-6.

Steelers would then need Denver to lose out to give KC the division. And get to h2h tiebreaker

Soul_Survivor88 · Dec 20, 2015

venecol said:
I just don't see Pats losing to Miami, they are truly pathetic.

Forfeiting to the Jets, and beating Miami the following week, is not a good way to prepare your team for the playoffs....better to compete with the stronger opponent, and let our backups play against the weaker team

EDIT: not to mention, the Jets are competing for a Wild Card spot, and you can bet they'll throw everything they have against us....I can't think of a better way to test your team than to play against a desperate opponent

Patsrock · Dec 20, 2015

SLGDEV said:
I don't think you are correct. There has to be a minimum of four games. What are those four games? There was Denver and whoever Cincy played from the AFC South. AIUI, the tiebreaker goes to to strength of victory which is pts scored minus points given up. Right now we lead that by 166 to 145. (Same record and same conference record).

No offense not that hard to look up the Bengals Schedule.

Denver NE L Cincy W
Houston NE W Cincy L
Pittsburgh (x2 for Cincy) Cincy 1-1 Pats W
Bills(x2 for NE) NE 2-0 Cincy W

Pats 4-1
Bengals 3-2

And strength of victory has nothing to do with points. It the teams you beat winning percentage.

venecol · Dec 20, 2015

Chiuba E. Obele said:
Forfeiting to the Jets, and beating Miami the following week, is not a good way to prepare your team for the playoffs....better compete with the stronger opponent, and let our backups play against the weaker team

EDIT: not to mention, the Jets are competing for a Wild Card spot, and you can bet they'll throw everything they have against us....I can't think of a better way to test your team than to play against a desperate opponent

No one is talking about a forfeit but it would be better imo to have our strong players against a weak opponent like Miami. They have no offense and our D would stuff them. The Jets are playing good and I don't trust them not trying to injure some of our players which need the rest.

I know BB is going to do everything he can to win next week but if we lose, I feel good about still getting HFA by beating Miami the following week.

1960Pats · Dec 20, 2015

SLGDEV said:
I don't think you are correct. There has to be a minimum of four games. What are those four games? There was Denver and whoever Cincy played from the AFC South. AIUI, the tiebreaker goes to to strength of victory which is pts scored minus points given up. Right now we lead that by 166 to 145. (Same record and same conference record).

The Pats are 4-1 with the 5 common opponents (wins vs Pitt, Buff (2) and Houston with a loss to Denver) and Cincy is 2-2 (wins vs Buffalo and Pitt and losses to Pitt and Houston with the Denver game to come). Now that Denver lost the Pats would have to drop both of their remaining games to lose a tie-breaker to either Cincy or Denver. Things seem to be breaking well for the Pats.

ivanvamp · Dec 20, 2015

YOUGOTMOSSED said:
Even if we wind up with the 2nd seed, I can easily envision the Denver or Cinci losing at home to either KC or Pittsburgh.

In both conferences, the #5 seed should be heavy favorites against the #4 seed. I don't know if that's ever happened in both conferences.

DaBronxPats14 · Dec 20, 2015

HF throughout is up to us. With Steelers beating Broncos, a win vs either Jets and/or Dolphins and we're in. Lets just take care of business and get out of these last two games healthy.

YOUGOTMOSSED · Dec 20, 2015

voluntarysaftey said:
So if we only lose 1 game or 0 games, we have #1 seed.
If we lose both games, and Cincy loses to Denver (and both them win their other game), we have #2 seed
If we lose both games and Cincy beats Denver (and both them win their other game),, we have #2 seed

I would almost be more inclined to rest injured players -- gronk, amendola, hightower, chung next week instead of letting them play with lingering injuries -- best case is we luck out and win,
worst case is week 17 becomes a must win -- and we have our full lineup with Edelman back, we should win that one easy and that helps keep the team a bit fresh for the playoffs (by going two weeks instead of 3 without a real game)

If it comes to that, I'm not all that concerned about the prospect of facing the AJ McCarron led Bengals in Cincinnati in the AFCCG.

Although, losing the last regular season game to the Dolphins would be somewhat disturbing.

Patsrock · Dec 20, 2015

ivanvamp said:
In both conferences, the #5 seed should be heavy favorites against the #4 seed. I don't know if that's ever happened in both conferences.

Only one I could find in a quick search was 2010/11 playoffs

New Orleans at Seattle NO by 10
Baltimore at KC Balt by 3

jah · Dec 20, 2015

ivanvamp said:
In both conferences, the #5 seed should be heavy favorites against the #4 seed. I don't know if that's ever happened in both conferences.

Seems like every year the 4 seed is either terrible or a bona fide contender.

QuantumMechanic · Dec 20, 2015

Another way to boil it down...

NE does not get the #1 seed if any of following happens:

NE finishes with same record as DEN (and only DEN)
CIN finishes with better record than NE
DEN beats CIN and then there's a NE-CIN-DEN 3-way tie

Ice_Ice_Brady · Dec 20, 2015

QuantumMechanic said:
Another way to boil it down...

NE does not get the #1 seed is if any of following happens:

NE finishes with same record as DEN (and only DEN)

CIN finishes with better record than NE

DEN beats CIN and then there's a NE-CIN-DEN 3-way tie

And all of these scenarios involve the Patriots losing out.

Gronkowski123 · Dec 20, 2015

how the **** did we lose to these eagles? cards are chewing them up.

Armen Da Pats Fan · Dec 20, 2015

smg93 said:
So that means a guaranteed bye? Yes!

Actually, we clinched a guaranteed bye today.

What we clinch with a win next week is home field throughout the playoffs. Which is more important, obviously.

cclocke · Dec 20, 2015

The way I understand it, the only way the Patriots don't get the #1 seed is if

1) The Patriots lose the last two games, AND
2) The winner of next week's DEN-CIN game also wins in week 17.

Ivan · Dec 20, 2015

I would rather lose them both and get healthy. The Patriots don't need home field for the AFCCG nearly as much as they need Amendola, Hightower, Edelman, Gronk etc etc.......

If they can get those available healthy for the tournament they win it.

Ice_Ice_Brady · Dec 20, 2015

Ivan said:
I would rather lose them both and get healthy. The Patriots don't need home field for the AFCCG nearly as much as they need Amendola, Hightower, Edelman, Gronk etc etc.......

If they can get those available healthy for the tournament they win it.

Assuming the #1 and #2 seeds win the divisional round, home field in the conference championship round is a huge advantage, a probability swing 20 percentage points and likely 7 points. I agree that health is important, but let's acknowledge that having home field is a big deal.

The Pats had home field advantage in 2003, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2014. 4 out of 6 times they've made the SB.

In the Conference Championship, they are are 4-1 at home, and 2-2 on the road, having lost their last two by thin margins that likely would have swung with HFA.

mgteich · Dec 20, 2015

I agree that a healthy patriot team with a bye is a much stronger one than one with lingering injuries from the next couple of games.

FourierSeries · Dec 20, 2015

Denver fans are so concerned about possibly not making the playoffs that they are forced to cheer for NE next week.

Broncos need the Patriots to win next week, ugh.

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