Battle for the #1 seed in the AFC

Battle for the #1 seed in the AFC


Patriots (10-1)
vs Eagles
@ Texans *SNF*
vs Titans
@ Jets
@ Dolphins

Broncos (9-2)
@ Chargers
vs Raiders
@ Steelers
vs Bengals *MNF*
vs Chargers

Bengals (9-2)
@ Browns
vs Steelers
@ 49ers *SNF*
@ Broncos *MNF*
vs Ravens

So, what record do you think the Pats will need to have to get HFA?

This is assuming we turn the ship injuries wise, and injured players come back. My predictions are:


vs Eagles - W

@ Texans *SNF* - W (close one)

vs Titans - W

@ Jets – L (close one)

@ Dolphins - W


Pats record: 14-2 (#1 seed)


Broncos (9-2)

@ Chargers - W

vs Raiders - W

@ Steelers - L

vs Bengals *MNF* - L

vs Chargers - W


Broncos record: 12-4 (#3 seed)


Bengals (9-2)

@ Browns - W

vs Steelers - L

@ 49ers *SNF* - W

@ Broncos *MNF* - W* (Though it’s a primetime game, Dalton might choke)

vs Ravens - W


Bengals record: 13-3 (#2 seed)

we need pitt to beat den and then cinn to beat den....then pats can lose 1 more and still get #1 seed...i think

people have not been paying attention to teh raiders, they are not the joke they used to be, I'd take the raiders over the broncos right now.

sambam94 said:

we need pitt to beat den and then cinn to beat den....then pats can lose 1 more and still get #1 seed...i think

Click to expand...

I think you mean pitt to beat den and then den to beat cinn

The Texans is shaping up to be a tough game now.

dannydyn said:

This is assuming we turn the ship injuries wise, and injured players come back. My predictions are:


vs Eagles - W

@ Texans *SNF* - W (close one)

vs Titans - W

@ Jets – L (close one)

@ Dolphins - W


Pats record: 14-2 (#1 seed)


Broncos (9-2)

@ Chargers - W

vs Raiders - W

@ Steelers - L

vs Bengals *MNF* - L

vs Chargers - W


Broncos record: 12-4 (#3 seed)


Bengals (9-2)

@ Browns - W

vs Steelers - L

@ 49ers *SNF* - W

@ Broncos *MNF* - W* (Though it’s a primetime game, Dalton might choke)

vs Ravens - W


Bengals record: 13-3 (#2 seed)

Click to expand...

This is pretty much how I see it. Pats get the #1 seed at 14-2, Bengals get #2 at 13-3 Broncos #3 at 12-4. The rest is a mess. Unfortunately I still see the South going to the Colts and the a Steelers and Jets get the WC spots.

Ivan said:

This is pretty much how I see it. Pats get the #1 seed at 14-2, Bengals get #2 at 13-3 Broncos #3 at 12-4. The rest is a mess. Unfortunately I still see the South going to the Colts and the a Steelers and Jets get the WC spots.

Click to expand...

Houston might be able to squeeze out the South. They're playing well. Indy is playing lucky.

Fyi, HFA is less important that simply earning the Bye. I'd like to see HFA (don't get me wrong on that point) but missing that first PO weekend is much more critical than a guarantee both games are at home. BB history shows this to be true.

How do we certainly get HFA? Don't lose 1 more game
How do we certainly get that crucial Bye? Don't lost 2 more games (due to Cincy v Denver one will have 3 losses).

As a practical matter one would think Denver and/or Cincy will lose another. Side note, Denver didn't impress me a whole lot. Winning their last 5 seems unlikely based on what I saw (I assume the refs will not bail them out too).
So it comes down to (as a practical matter): lose 1 very likely get HFA, lose 2 very probably get a Bye, lose 3 all bets are off. Looking at the weak opponents of Tenn, Miami, Philly and two competitive teams of Houston and NYJ, one would think 2 losses is the very upper range of the loss expectation.

The good news is the Eagles, Titans, and Dolphins are circling the drain. The Texans will be tough. I think the Pats can beat the Jets fairly decisively.

The Pats do not need HFA to get to the SB. With a healthy Edelman, Gronk, Collins, Hightower, and Amendola, I believe they can win in Cincinnati or Denever. The bye is essential,imo. Whomever is the 3 seed is going to have a hell of a matchup in the first wild card round vs Pittsburgh or the Jets.

If Gronk and Amendola play I don't think Texans will be as tough as people think.

JMC00 said:

If Gronk and Amendola play I don't think Texans will be as tough as people think.

Click to expand...

not to mention collins and hightower.

think about it - it took numerous injuries, OT and the number 1 defense in the league to beat barely beat us. houston's D is good but not as good as Denver's.

Re: Texans

Only team to handle the Bengals this year. Also handle the Jets D pretty well, considering how limited they are offensively.

rochrist said:

The Texans is shaping up to be a tough game now.

Click to expand...

I have a feeling that they just might beat NE.

TommyBrady12 said:

not to mention collins and hightower.

think about it - it took numerous injuries, OT and the number 1 defense in the league to beat barely beat us. houston's D is good but not as good as Denver's.

Click to expand...

I have a hard time crowning Denver's defense the best in the league after allowing 24 points at home to Keshawn Martin, Asante Cleveland, Chris Harper, Scott Chandler, Brandon Bolden, etc.

That defense has declined considerably.

Looking into my crystal ball, here's how I think it will play out:


Patriots (10-1)
vs Eagles - Win easily, with or without Gronk/Hightower
@ Texans *SNF* - Tough time scoring against Texans, but the D shuts them down. Win in a low scoring, close game, something like 17-13.
vs Titans - Should be a relatively easy win at home.
@ Jets - The Pats are still better, but I can see the Jets winning this one.
@ Dolphins - All depends on whether the Pats need the game or not. If they don't need the win, they'll rest people and probably lose. If they do need the win, they'll play all out for it. But let's assume they lose. See below.

Broncos (9-2)
@ Chargers - Win, riding some momentum.
vs Raiders - Win. If the game was in Oakland, I think they'd lose. But it's in Denver, so.... Win.
@ Steelers - Loss. Big Ben plays well, and Osweiler struggles.
vs Bengals *MNF* - Huge game. In Denver. Cincy never wins in prime time. Win for Denver.
vs Chargers - Win at home.
RECORD: 13-3

Bengals (9-2)
@ Browns - Win.
vs Steelers - Win.
@ 49ers *SNF* - Win.
@ Broncos *MNF* - Loss - see above.
vs Ravens - Win.
RECORD: 13-3

Denver would hold the tiebreaker over Cincy based on H2H, if the two of them were at 13-3, with New England at 14-2. But let's say NE loses to Miami, putting them at 13-3 as well. In a 3-way tie for the top seed, given that the three teams are in different divisions, the first tiebreaker would be H2H, but ONLY if all three teams have played each other. And that, obviously, would not apply, since NE will not play Cincy. So the next tiebreaker is record within the conference. And if I'm right above, here's how the final records will play out:

NE: 13-3 overall, 9-3 conference
Den: 13-3 overall, 9-3 conference
Cin: 13-3 overall, 10-2 conference

This would give Cincy the #1 seed, leaving NE and Den battling for the #2 seed. You then go back to H2H, I think, and that means Denver would be the #2 seed.

Long story short, I see Cincy and Denver both being 13-3, which means that, given the tiebreakers, NE almost certainly has to go 14-2 in order to get a bye at all, never mind the #1 seed. But if they go 14-2, they'll be in excellent shape for the #1 seed.

So it's a 5-game race for the top seed. It would be HUGE for the Patriots to get the #1 seed. And honestly, I guess if it comes down to needing just one win in their last two games, against the Jets and Dolphins, even though both games are on the road, I can't see NE losing both of them.

So I say the Pats finish 14-2 and get the #1 seed. Take a week off to get healthy, and then play the #4, #5, or #6 seed at home in the divisional round, with Amendola, Edelman, Gronk, Collins, and Hightower all healthy. I'll take my chances with that.

The Patriots will win their next 3 games and they'll all be by comfortable margins. Book it.

rochrist said:

Re: Texans

Only team to handle the Bengals this year. Also handle the Jets D pretty well, considering how limited they are offensively.

Click to expand...

Texans: the only team running a defense that BB knows like the back of his hand.

After the hose job I saw last night against the Pats' B-team, I firmly believe that this team, once all the missing pieces return, can defeat any team, in any building, on any given night.

I want the #1 seed, don't get me wrong, but if they don't get it, I wouldn't flinch in the least.