The Playoff Picture

varjao said:

very likely in my opinion

Click to expand...

I think that the term the NYJFL wants us to use is "more probable than not."

1960Pats said:

The most startling aspect of the Panthers' run is that every single game they've played so far has been against teams with a losing record. And of the remaining games they have to play, Wash, @Dallas, @NO and TB, are 14-23 right now. Their remaining 3 games are the two with Atlanta (6-3) and @NYG (5-5). Yeow!

Click to expand...

They beat a 6-1 GB team.

I think you need to give CAR credit for beating the teams that they should.

With that said I don't think that they are better than AZ in the NFC.

robertweathers said:

They beat a 6-1 GB team.

I think you need to give CAR credit for beating the teams that they should.

With that said I don't think that they are better than AZ in the NFC.

Click to expand...

Thanks for the correction. I have no idea how I could have missed/forgotten that game.

Btw, here are the current records of all the opponents for all 32 teams. Hopefully I didn't mess this up also.

31 53 Arizona
32 51 Atlanta
32 49 Minnesota
33 49 Cincinnati
35 47 Carolina
35 47 Denver
38 45 New England
39 44 Tampa Bay
39 43 New York Jets
39 42 Green Bay
40 41 Chicago
41 42 Philadelphia
41 42 San Diego
41 40 Miami
42 41 Baltimore
42 41 Tennessee
43 48 New York Giants
43 40 Oakland
43 40 St Louis
44 38 Buffalo
44 37 Houston
45 46 Pittsburgh
45 39 Dallas
45 38 Washington
45 36 Seattle
46 35 Jacksonville
47 44 Cleveland
47 44 New Orleans
47 36 San Francisco
48 34 Indianapolis
48 33 Detroit
51 31 Kansas City

1960Pats said:

Thanks for the correction. I have no idea how I could have missed/forgotten that game.

Btw, here are the current records of all the opponents for all 32 teams. Hopefully I didn't mess this up also.

31 53 Arizona
32 51 Atlanta
32 49 Minnesota
33 49 Cincinnati
35 47 Carolina
35 47 Denver
38 45 New England
39 44 Tampa Bay
39 43 New York Jets
39 42 Green Bay
40 41 Chicago
41 42 Philadelphia
41 42 San Diego
41 40 Miami
42 41 Baltimore
42 41 Tennessee
43 48 New York Giants
43 40 Oakland
43 40 St Louis
44 38 Buffalo
44 37 Houston
45 46 Pittsburgh
45 39 Dallas
45 38 Washington
45 36 Seattle
46 35 Jacksonville
47 44 Cleveland
47 44 New Orleans
47 36 San Francisco
48 34 Indianapolis
48 33 Detroit
51 31 Kansas City

Click to expand...

Interesting.

Record of remaining Pats opponents is 26-28

1960Pats said:

Thanks for the correction. I have no idea how I could have missed/forgotten that game.

Btw, here are the current records of all the opponents for all 32 teams. Hopefully I didn't mess this up also.

31 53 Arizona
32 51 Atlanta
32 49 Minnesota
33 49 Cincinnati
35 47 Carolina
35 47 Denver
38 45 New England
39 44 Tampa Bay
39 43 New York Jets
39 42 Green Bay
40 41 Chicago
41 42 Philadelphia
41 42 San Diego
41 40 Miami
42 41 Baltimore
42 41 Tennessee
43 48 New York Giants
43 40 Oakland
43 40 St Louis
44 38 Buffalo
44 37 Houston
45 46 Pittsburgh
45 39 Dallas
45 38 Washington
45 36 Seattle
46 35 Jacksonville
47 44 Cleveland
47 44 New Orleans
47 36 San Francisco
48 34 Indianapolis
48 33 Detroit
51 31 Kansas City

Click to expand...

Take away the relevant wins and/or losses from the opposing team, and a lot of this probably balances out. For example, had New England lost all nine games, their opponents would be 47-34 and near the bottom of the list.

Nikolai said:

Take away the relevant wins and/or losses from the opposing team, and a lot of this probably balances out. For example, had New England lost all nine games, their opponents would be 47-34 and near the bottom of the list.

Click to expand...

Just for clarification, the top of the list are the teams whose opponents have the worst combined records. Ask and you shall receive the numbers with the Pats at 0-9;

31 53 Arizona 31 53
32 51 Atlanta 32 51
32 49 Minnesota 32 49
33 49 Cincinnati 33 49
35 47 Carolina 35 47
35 47 Denver 35 47
38 45 New England 38 45
39 44 Tampa Bay 39 44
39 43 New York Jets 30 52
39 42 Green Bay 39 42
40 41 Chicago 40 41
41 42 Philadelphia 41 42
41 42 San Diego 41 42
41 40 Miami 32 49
42 41 Baltimore 42 41
42 41 Tennessee 42 41
43 48 New York Giants 34 57
43 40 Oakland 43 40
43 40 St Louis 43 40
44 38 Buffalo 35 47
44 37 Houston 44 37
45 46 Pittsburgh 36 55
45 39 Dallas 36 48
45 38 Washington 36 47
45 36 Seattle 45 36
46 35 Jacksonville 37 44
47 44 Cleveland 47 44
47 44 New Orleans 47 44
47 36 San Francisco 47 36
48 34 Indianapolis 39 43
48 33 Detroit 48 33
51 31 Kansas City 51 31

1960Pats said:

Just for clarification, the top of the list are the teams whose opponents have the worst combined records. Ask and you shall receive the numbers with the Pats at 0-9;

31 53 Arizona 31 53
32 51 Atlanta 32 51
32 49 Minnesota 32 49
33 49 Cincinnati 33 49
35 47 Carolina 35 47
35 47 Denver 35 47
38 45 New England 38 45
39 44 Tampa Bay 39 44
39 43 New York Jets 30 52
39 42 Green Bay 39 42
40 41 Chicago 40 41
41 42 Philadelphia 41 42
41 42 San Diego 41 42
41 40 Miami 32 49
42 41 Baltimore 42 41
42 41 Tennessee 42 41
43 48 New York Giants 34 57
43 40 Oakland 43 40
43 40 St Louis 43 40
44 38 Buffalo 35 47
44 37 Houston 44 37
45 46 Pittsburgh 36 55
45 39 Dallas 36 48
45 38 Washington 36 47
45 36 Seattle 45 36
46 35 Jacksonville 37 44
47 44 Cleveland 47 44
47 44 New Orleans 47 44
47 36 San Francisco 47 36
48 34 Indianapolis 39 43
48 33 Detroit 48 33
51 31 Kansas City 51 31

Click to expand...

Actually, it would go the other way, right? The Jest would go from 39-43 to 40-42 if they had beat the Pats, Miami from 41-40 to 42-39, and so on. The Pats would go from 38-45 to 47-36.

It's been many days on lack of sleep, so I could be off on the moon here...

Nikolai said:

Actually, it would go the other way, right? The Jest would go from 39-43 to 40-42 if they had beat the Pats, Miami from 41-40 to 42-39, and so on. The Pats would go from 38-45 to 47-36.

It's been many days on lack of sleep, so I could be off on the moon here...

Click to expand...

I misunderstood but I have no excuse. I thought you were talking about the Pats losing all 9 of their games, not just the one to each opponent separately.

Nikolai said:

Take away the relevant wins and/or losses from the opposing team, and a lot of this probably balances out. For example, had New England lost all nine games, their opponents would be 47-34 and near the bottom of the list.

Click to expand...

Agreed...you have to make the w/l records relative by subtracting the base team's record from the equation. I hear every year how the Patriots played an "easy schedule" while a bottom feeder played a tough one. Well, take out the 4-12 record vs. the Patriots and the 11-5 record against the compared team, and that will give you the more accurate answer about strength of schedule.

1960Pats said:

I misunderstood but I have no excuse. I thought you were talking about the Pats losing all 9 of their games, not just the one to each opponent separately.

Click to expand...

Yeah, just because the ripple effect of them losing all 9 games would change everything significantly. And I'm not sure about the formulas for strength of schedule, but if it's a simple wins-losses equation, then it's not quite right...I was going to say more, but it'd be a babble right now compared to this:

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

Agreed...you have to make the w/l records relative by subtracting the base team's record from the equation. I hear every year how the Patriots played an "easy schedule" while a bottom feeder played a tough one. Well, take out the 4-12 record vs. the Patriots and the 11-5 record against the compared team, and that will give you the more accurate answer about strength of schedule.

Click to expand...

Nikolai said:

Yeah, just because the ripple effect of them losing all 9 games would change everything significantly. And I'm not sure about the formulas for strength of schedule, but if it's a simple wins-losses equation, then it's not quite right...I was going to say more, but it'd be a babble right now compared to this:

Click to expand...

Strength of Victory and Strength of Schedule are pretty simple. For SoV you take the combined record of all the teams you beat -- counting twice the record of teams you beat twice, if any -- and convert it to a winning percentage. For SoS you take the combined record of all the teams you played (counting twice teams you played twice) and convert that to a winning percentage.

QuantumMechanic said:

Strength of Victory and Strength of Schedule are pretty simple. For SoV you take the combined record of all the teams you beat -- counting twice the record of teams you beat twice, if any -- and convert it to a winning percentage. For SoS you take the combined record of all the teams you played (counting twice teams you played twice) and convert that to a winning percentage.

Click to expand...

Hmmmm, without removing the subject teams wins/losses from the equation, it's not a very accurate measure for comparing two teams with different records. I can see it being viable as a tiebreaker though.

Well, they are only used as tiebreakers, after all. And after ones like head-to-head, common opponents, and conference record.

Okay, time for an update on the playoff picture. Now that all teams have played ten games I decided to throw in all of the remaining games for teams with a 4-6 record or better.

The numbers in parenthesis are the record and conference record for that team.
The number at the end is the total 1-32 ranking of that team's 6 opponents.

AFC (12 teams) Opp Total Rank
E - NE (10-0, 7-0 conf) @Den, Phi, @Hou, Ten, @NYJ, @Mia 114
N - Cincy (8-2, 7-1 conf) SL, @Cle, Pit, @SF, @Den, Bal 124
W - Denver (8-2, 4-2 conf) NE, @SD, Oak, @Pit, Cin, SD 91
S - Indy (5-5, 4-3 conf) TB, @Pit, @Jac, Hou, Ten, @Mia 119
Pitt (6-4, 3-4 conf) @Sea, Ind, @Cin, Den, @Bal, @Cle 92
KC (5-5, 4-2 conf) Buf, @Oak, SD, @Bal, Cle, Oak 146
Hous (5-5, 4-3 conf) NO, @Buf, NE, @Ind, @Ten, Jac 113
Buff (5-5, 5-4 conf)) @KC, Hou, @Phi, @Was, Dal, NYJ 106
NYJ (5-5, 4-4 conf) Mia, @NYG, Ten, @Dal, NE, @Buf 100
Oak (4-6, 4-3 conf) @Ten, KC, @Den, GB, SD, @KC 90
Jags (4-6, 4-4 conf) SD, @Ten, Ind, Atl, @NO, @Hou 125
Miami (4-6, 2-5 conf) @NYJ, Bal, NYG, @SD, Ind, NE 101

The Pats and Steelers have 4 of their last 6 on the road.
Denver, KC and Miami have 4 of their last 6 at home.
Every other team has an even 3/3 split.

NFC (13 teams)
S - Car (10-0, 6-0 conf) @Dal, @NO, Atl, @NYG, @Atl, TB 95
W - Ariz (8-2, 5-1 conf) @SF, @SL, Min, @Phi, GB, Sea 95
N - GB (7-3, 5-2 conf) Chi, @Det, Dal, @Oak, @Ari, Min 94
E - NYG (5-5, 4-4 conf) @Was, NYJ, @Mia, Car, @Min, Phi 94
Minny (7-3, 4-2 conf) @Atl, Sea, @Ari, Chi, NYG, @GB 61
Atlanta (6-4, 4-3 conf) Min, @TB, @Car, @Jac, Car, NO 79
TB (5-5, 4-3 conf) @Ind, Atl, NO, @SL, Chi, @Car 91
Seattle (5-5, 5-4 conf) Pit, @Min, @Bal, Cle, SL, @Ari 100
Wash (4-6, 4-3 conf) NYG, Dal, @Chi, Buf, @Phi, @Dal 106
SL (4-6, 3-4 conf) @Cin, Ari, Det, TB, @Sea, @SF 85
Philly (4-6, 3-5 conf) @Det, @NE, Buf, Ari, Was, @NYG 77
NO (4-6, 3-5 conf) @Hou, Car, @TB, Det, Jac, @Atl 95
Chicago (4-6, 1-5 conf) @GB, SF, Was, @Min, @TB, Det 103

The Panthers have 4 of their last 6 on the road.
Every other team has an even 3/3 split.

KC has the easiest remaining schedule in the AFC.
Minnesota has the toughest remaining schedule in the NFC.

Happy Annual Dolphins Division Elimination Day!

Happy Annual Bills Division Elimination Day!

You are a bad, bad person QM

I was going to add to the inequity of the current playoff system, but Grid has made a separate thread about it and I think I'll head over there...

I think Pitt beats Cinci this weekend. We win handily.