Malcolm Butler

Anyone still believe Butler isn't a #1 CB?

This kid better get a Pro Bowl invitation (that he'll have to decline because of the Super Bowl) because he damn well deserves it.

n6249c said:

Sources please?

CBA specifies three year contract for UDFA rookies. That's last year, this year and next year. Have not been able to find anything about extending before their third year. That's when all other rookie contracts can be extended, as I understand it. Unless there is a special provision for UDFA rookies their contracts would be the same.

I'm not absolutely certain (i.e. have not read it in the CBA nor read Butler's contract myself) so if there is better information I'd like to know where to find it, please. TIA!

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I thought it was three too, but after investigating further it looks like it's three years for drafted players and two for UDFAs:

New CBA limits early renegotiated contracts

Cowboys land top-10 draft talent La’el Collins in blockbuster
La'el Collins' earning potential as an undrafted free agent

So it looks like Butler can be extended after this season. Which means that he currently stands to make approximately $600K in 2016 and $2-3M in 2017, depending on how the Pats tender him as a RFA. He doesn't have much incentive to worry about the franchise tag, since the tag value for CBs is currently $13M and will likely be in the $15M+ range by 2018.

I could see Butler taking a deal as low as $6M AAV only if it has a big signing bonus that he would collect after this season, and was a short-term deal that only extended a year past when he's currently scheduled to hit UFA. But the Patriots would have no real incentive to make that move, since they would end up paying a lot more than if they just let him play through 2017 on the RFA tender then offered him a market-rate FA contract.

My guess is they either sign him after this year to a 3-4 year deal averaging $8-10M AAV (tacked on toe end of his rookie deal, so through 2019) or they wait until after 2016 and sign him to a 3-4 year deal averaging $10-12M AAV. This is all assuming, of course, that he at a minimum sustains his current level of play.

EDIT: Just saw that you already found the exact language in the CBA for it. Nice find, think I'll leave this up anyway though.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

Actually, why stop there? I think you can make some room in your work day to get in the entirety of Super Bowl 49.

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Whewwww buddie. I'm gonna tackle this bad boy at dinner.

robertweathers said:

At a 5 year deal, if you include the last year of the rookie deal that about a ~1.4m per season difference.

$8m seems high for a player as a starter for only one year.

I agree that the CB market is ridiculously inflated.

Maybe I was wrong that $5m AAV for Malcolm might be too low?

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I do think it's an important distinction whether the AAV is new money only or includes the last year of his rookie deal. I'm basing my numbers off of new money only. If you figure that any extension after this season would be tacked on to his rookie deal and start in 2016 (which based on precedent is a reasonable assumption), then the total AAV from 2016 through the duration of the contract would be lower than the numbers I'm throwing around.

I think $5M is significantly too low for Butler even if you're factoring in 2016 at his current salary, but I do agree that this is the right general tactic if the Pats are serious about keeping their young core (Collins, Hightower, Jones, Butler) intact. Extend them all a year early, give them a big signing bonus to get them seeing the potential for a lot of money in the bank tomorrow, and there's a good chance that you can lock them all up for cap figures that will seem super low by 2018.

At that point, the major downside is if one of them suffers a career-altering injury (or turns out to be a serial killer, I guess), but if you sign all of them to deals like that then you could probably lose one and still come out ahead long-term. The Pats showed a willingness to take on this kind of risk when they extended Gronk and Hernandez early; hopefully only batting .500 there hasn't soured them on trying it again.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

In addition, we ate $5M in dead money from sign-on bonus.

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It was still only $12M. $8M hit the cap in 2014, and $5M hit the cap in 2015.

Marinlik said:

It was still only $12M. $8M hit the cap in 2014, and $5M hit the cap in 2015.

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My mistake.

BradyFTW! said:

I do think it's an important distinction whether the AAV is new money only or includes the last year of his rookie deal. I'm basing my numbers off of new money only. If you figure that any extension after this season would be tacked on to his rookie deal and start in 2016 (which based on precedent is a reasonable assumption), then the total AAV from 2016 through the duration of the contract would be lower than the numbers I'm throwing around.

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Yep

BradyFTW! said:

I think $5M is significantly too low for Butler even if you're factoring in 2016 at his current salary, but I do agree that this is the right general tactic if the Pats are serious about keeping their young core (Collins, Hightower, Jones, Butler) intact. Extend them all a year early, give them a big signing bonus to get them seeing the potential for a lot of money in the bank tomorrow, and there's a good chance that you can lock them all up for cap figures that will seem super low by 2018.

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yes. The $5m AAV isn't to suggest that they pay him only $5m per yr and a skimpy signing bonus. If its 4/20 and $12m guaranteed/$8m upfront thats a good 1st deal for a UFA. he might bite at that. However if Malcolm comes close to top 5 CB performance, the money might need to be doubled.

BradyFTW! said:

At that point, the major downside is if one of them suffers a career-altering injury (or turns out to be a serial killer, I guess), but if you sign all of them to deals like that then you could probably lose one and still come out ahead long-term. The Pats showed a willingness to take on this kind of risk when they extended Gronk and Hernandez early; hopefully only batting .500 there hasn't soured them on trying it again.

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Thats a risk with everyone. Gronk's knee, AH's killing rampage, Solder's arm. Pats are paying Hi and Jones big money this year. They could have gotten hurt. They key is paying more to younger players who can recover than older players who chances are won't recover as quickly.

robertweathers said:

Lets slow down a little. His future is outstanding but he only has 10 career starts.

His next deal is between $4-$5m AAV.

Anything more than that is a bit of an overpay.

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I completely agree. I want to see two to three seasons of excellent DB play from Butler before he even sniffs huge money. Hell, look how long it took McCourty to get his mammoth contract. Extenuating circumstances and a positional change, but the point stands.

ausbacker said:

I completely agree. I want to see two to three seasons of excellent DB play from Butler before he even sniffs huge money. Hell, look how long it took McCourty to get his mammoth contract. Extenuating circumstances and a positional change, but the point stands.

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Agree with the comparison and your point Aus. But I will say I have better confidence that Butler is going to be a top 10 CB longer term than McCourty would have been. The proof will be in the games and season's worth of good play from Butler.

IMHO, based solely on my own biased observations and not some metric I could provide, McCourty is a bit more cerebral while Butler is a little more visceral. I suspect being a top CB requires a bit more visceral while the FS spot requires a bit more cerebral. (though both positions certainly require both).
In that regard I think both guys are in their right positions and are better apt to thrive.

Side note for Butler: from the start I was impressed with his ability to stay with his man. More and more, however, I am also impressed with his ability to make the play as well as have a short memory. The short memory part I suspect is a tougher task to handle for someone, McCourty, who is a bit more cerebral.

ausbacker said:

I completely agree. I want to see two to three seasons of excellent DB play from Butler before he even sniffs huge money. Hell, look how long it took McCourty to get his mammoth contract. Extenuating circumstances and a positional change, but the point stands.

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Problem is, it's not up to us. All that we could do is force him to play out the third year of his rookie contract. He would then have three accrued seasons and would thus be a restricted free agent, so he's probably going to get some fairly big bucks offers then. Or we get him for just one season at about $3.5million and then he's an unrestricted free agent.

As a restricted free agent we would certainly tender him at the first round level, which means we offer him a one year contract for the required qualifying salary, about $3.5mm. For that we get the right to match any offer, or we get their first round pick from his new team as compensation for losing him. So the question is, what contract would a team be willing to offer an established CB1 that will also cost them a first round pick? I'd expect it will be pretty rich, maybe even close to the unrestricted free agent market value.

So, after next year Butler is very likely to get big bucks whether we like it or not. If not he will get really big bucks the year after, maybe Revis level if he continues to play as well as he did last game.

Seems to me that signing him for moderately big bucks after this year is a much better bet than waiting until after next season and having it be a crap shoot whether we get him re-signed, or settle for getting a first round pick for him. Best might be a mid-season extension next year, but once we go past the end of this year his leverage increases rapidly, so I'd prefer to just extend him during the off season or training camp at the latest.

Marinlik said:

It was still only $12M. $8M hit the cap in 2014, and $5M hit the cap in 2015.

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Who pocketed the extra million?

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

In addition, we ate $5M in dead money from sign-on bonus.

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Not in addition.

His contract was structured 1 year deal, with a 1 year option

'14
$1.5m base
$500k roster bonus

'15
$20m option

$10m signing bonus split over the two years

10+1.5+.5= $12m

Angelpats said:

What also DID happen was mccourty getting in the way of butler tackling his man.

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What is your point? Butlers coverage was good because maybe he could have run him down after 60 yards?



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ausbacker said:

I completely agree. I want to see two to three seasons of excellent DB play from Butler before he even sniffs huge money. Hell, look how long it took McCourty to get his mammoth contract. Extenuating circumstances and a positional change, but the point stands.

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It's a tough call.

At the end of this season he'll be worth way more than the $600k he is scheduled to earn in 2016. $5m AAV sounds about right.

However, if he has a Top 5 CB year in 2016, $5m is a bargain.

With the pace in which he is developing, that's not so far-fetched.

ausbacker said:

I completely agree. I want to see two to three seasons of excellent DB play from Butler before he even sniffs huge money. Hell, look how long it took McCourty to get his mammoth contract. Extenuating circumstances and a positional change, but the point stands.

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This was kind of my point in the OP. Clearly Butler has ability. And if he continues this rate of development, he's going to be a pro-bowl caliber CB for years.

BUT....he's only done this for a very short amount of time, and he doesn't have high draft pick pedigree. So dropping $6+ million on him now in an extension seems to be quite a risk. That's why I suggested a lower offer - still comes with risk, but it's tolerable. I wonder what the lowest number is they could offer in an extension that Butler would take. Because even though he might think he's worth more on the open market, (a) he's not on the open market until after 2016, and (b) because anything can happen - injuries, etc., - to lock in many millions of dollars for an UDFA would be mighty tempting.

n6249c said:

As a restricted free agent we would certainly tender him at the first round level, which means we offer him a one year contract for the required qualifying salary, about $3.5mm. For that we get the right to match any offer, or we get their first round pick from his new team as compensation for losing him. So the question is, what contract would a team be willing to offer an established CB1 that will also cost them a first round pick? I'd expect it will be pretty rich, maybe even close to the unrestricted free agent market value.
...
Seems to me that signing him for moderately big bucks after this year is a much better bet than waiting until after next season and having it be a crap shoot whether we get him re-signed, or settle for getting a first round pick for him.

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Remember that the original team gets the right to match any RFA offer. By your scenario, another team would have to value Butler as worth a 1st rounder plus a contract that the Pats won't pay. AFAIK no player with a 1st-round tender has ever been signed away.

patchick said:

Remember that the original team gets the right to match any RFA offer. By your scenario, another team would have to value Butler as worth a 1st rounder plus a contract that the Pats won't pay. AFAIK no player with a 1st-round tender has ever been signed away.

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Very good point. That might make other teams reluctant to write an offer sheet that the Pats would then match and lock him up for years. OTOH I recall a couple of RFA offers that were crafted with a "poison pill" clause that made them unpalatable to the RFA's original team. Forget the details and don't know if the league closed that loophole somehow, but it's at least a remote possibility.

Considering all that, the scenario in which Butler waits longest for huge payday is the one where he plays for us next year on his UDFA contract, the year after on our RFA tender, and then we lose him in the unrestricted FA auction and get a comp pick in return.

I submit that's not the best scenario for the team. Better to extend him at the end of this year, and lock him up for the next five years for reasonable money. By "reasonable money" I mean CB1 salary not cheapskate bargin rates.

Question is, do you want two years of CB1 at bargin basement rates followed by a draft crapshoot, or five years of a slightly discounted CB1?

All this assumes continued play at the level he already showed, last week and in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl. Why would anyone think he will not continue to play at the level he has already attained?

Must sign jones Hightower Collins first

Todd Bradley said:

Anyone still believe Butler isn't a #1 CB?

This kid better get a Pro Bowl invitation (that he'll have to decline because of the Super Bowl) because he damn well deserves it.

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No he doesn't. He is an above average corner at this point. He has a ways to go to be a probowl corner.

Here's an interesting question: how does the fact they were willing to extend Ryan Allen after just two years affect things?