Can/Will Pats resign Jones, Collins, and Hightower?

Brady6 · Nov 13, 2015

I hear a ton of talk on the board about keeping Jones, Collins, and Hightower being unlikely, I actually disagree, I think the contracts in our front 7 are structured in a way that allows us to sign them all to long term deals. In 2016 we have these players on the books for:

Jerod Mayo-$10,087,500
Chandler Jones-$7,799,000
Donta Hightower-$7,751,000
Jabeel Sheard-$6,812,500
Rob Ninkovich-$4,750,000
Jamie Collins-$1,196,683

I assume the hope would be that by 2017 Grissom and Flowers can replace Ninkovich and Sheard, Mayo as much as I love him has already been replaced.

In my opinion, Belichick has spent most of his tenure here looking for the types versatile of players Jones, Hightower, and Collins are and I would be shocked if he let them slip away.

Luxusdk · Nov 13, 2015

Mayo is long gone next year, saves 7 mill

patchick · Nov 13, 2015

Unusually detailed mainstream media take from Jeff Howe:

Patriots can hit trifecta with Hightower, Collins, Jones

rookBoston · Nov 13, 2015

Well, he let Richard Seymour slip away, too, in his prime.

There is enough cap space to sign them all, for most teams. But BB is notorious for spending disproportionate share of his cap space on the #20-50 players on his roster... the Alan Branches, Brandon Boldens, Nate Ebners and Marcus Cannons of the team. The general calculus is that the a single $10mm player is not as important to the roster than eight $1.2mm players... or maybe a $4mm and a few $2mm players.

This is part of the Next Man Up philosophy of team building... you plan to lose players to injury, and design the roster to be deep. Rather than breaking the bank on a free agent like Suh, you bring in Branch and Siliga and Hicks and consider yourself ahead.

So, sure, BB could sign them all. But he's unlikely to do so, because if he does the overall structure of the team will be more like what Dallas is suffering under, where once their stars get hurt, they're just S.O.L. It's just never been his mode of roster building.

Key to me is that Sheard is making half(?) or two-thirds(?) of what Jones is like to demand in Free Agency... and despite what Jones brings to the team, Sheard is the better value. Ninkovich is better value, too. And Grissom + Flowers is on their rookie contracts and deserve snaps. Jones is an impactful player, but... unless he's willing to go under-market to stay in Foxboro, I think he's gone.

Collins and Hightower are the keepers, for me. BB will sign a few veterans any given year, who are elite talents and the core leaders of the team... here I'm thinking Mayo, Wilfork, Mankins, Brady, McCourty. A countable few, single digit number of rare players... the Lawrence Taylors of his team, so to speak. In this generation, I think Hightower, Collins and Gronk are the ones he is interested in building the rest of his team around, the rare and irreplaceable talent.

Fencer · Nov 13, 2015

patchick said:
Unusually detailed mainstream media take from Jeff Howe:

Patriots can hit trifecta with Hightower, Collins, Jones

Indeed. But I doubt the Patriots will like his idea of saving $6.15 million by cutting Cannon and Branch.

I think Mayo will be completely gone -- worth more to other teams than he is to the Patriots.

I don't know about Amendola. He's apt to be a #4 or #5 receiving option here, while there's probably another team somewhere where he'd be a true #3. Still, the Patriots are ideal for his style of play, so he might be worth approximately as much here as elsewhere.

BobDigital · Nov 13, 2015

I think it will be more than enough plus as someone already said... Mayo will be gone by then.

Here are the moves I think the Patriots make in 2016

Cut Mayo
Restructure/Extend Amendola - I think he wants to be here and is willing to gives up money in 2016 to get 2-3 more years under contract for a fair price.
Extend/Restructure Sheard - Will be Nink's replacement and has proven he can be effective here.

These 3 moves save you about 12M give or take.

Ideally I'd like Amendola through 2020 for about 3M per year. I think with a contract that long he would be willing to go down from his contract of 6.8 to about 3.4 for 2016. Even though he may not get a ton of targets I think he is worth that money as he is a a great Edelman back up plan and a good 3rd WR and when someone goes down for a stretch it is good to get someone reliable who you know Brady trust like him on the field.

Sheard's contract of 6.8M for 2016 is not a huge issue to me. If he stays healthy he is worth it but Nink is not getting any younger and you need a long term high quality starter.

A fair deal be drop him down to 5M in 2016 and pay him 6, 7, 8, 10 for 17, 18,19, 2020.

The Patriots also can do something about Cannon's deal but I will wait till the end of the year to say what. This is going to be very telling stretch for Cannon.

I think considering how Branch has played 2.5M is reasonable but no need to extend him as we have young guys in the pipe line we will need to pay soon.

fester · Nov 13, 2015

rookBoston said:
This is part of the Next Man Up philosophy of team building... you plan to lose players to injury, and design the roster to be deep. Rather than breaking the bank on a free agent like Suh, you bring in Branch and Siliga and Hicks and consider yourself ahead.

Key to me is that Sheard is making half(?) or two-thirds(?) of what Jones is like to demand in Free Agency... and despite what Jones brings to the team, Sheard is the better value. Ninkovich is better value, too. And Grissom + Flowers is on their rookie contracts and deserve snaps. Jones is an impactful player, but... unless he's willing to go under-market to stay in Foxboro, I think he's gone.

The only problem that I have with this analysis is Ninkovich. He is a solid player who performs his many jobs well. However, he is getting old, so I do not think Belicheck can reasonably assume or count on high performance from Nink in 2017 or beyond. Current value (production/money) might be in favor of Nink, long run, future value greatly favors Jones.

chasa · Nov 13, 2015

if they want to be paid as the #1 at their position? probably not.

If they are down to be team players and take say a top 10 position deal? yes please.

patsinthesnow · Nov 13, 2015

If Jones continues to play like this through 2016 he will command an insane Mario Williams type 100+ million dollar contract. He'll be gone. Pass rushers can be replaced and we'll survive.

Collins/Hightower are resigned and Jones is let go. BB is not paying a DE 16 million a year.

rookBoston · Nov 13, 2015

fester said:
The only problem that I have with this analysis is Ninkovich. He is a solid player who performs his many jobs well. However, he is getting old, so I do not think Belicheck can reasonably assume or count on high performance from Nink in 2017 or beyond. Current value (production/money) might be in favor of Nink, long run, future value greatly favors Jones.

Yeah, true. Ninkovich is nearing the end of his run. BB will start cutting his salary in anticipation of the fact. It will be up to Rob to decide how long he wants to stick around on thin money.

When he goes, hopefully the kids are ready to step up, like Ridley and Vereen did when it was their turn in the spotlight. But if not, I would expect BB to dig around for some journeyman DE/OLB and plug that spot with a few candidates. He's always shopping in Free Agency on the discount rack, for marked down merchandise.

The free agency "solution" will feel like JAG, not a solution at all. But then on game day we'll realize that he's not half as bad as we were afraid... kinda like Jonathan Freeney, maybe... kinda like Ninkovich himself when he first arrived.

borg · Nov 13, 2015

Something to keep an eye on.......McCourty's contract grows substantially from '16-'19......$8 mill, $10 mill, $11 mill, $12.5 mill.
Using past Patriots contract history, players that have won the stare down with management and secured contracts above NE's price points thanks to leverage don't often last long in NE.
Law, Branch, Seymour, Samuel, Vinatieri, Mankins.....each exerted their leverage....and each ended up moving, usually via trade. It can easily be argued that each departure was unique....age, price, attitude, performance....but the one commonality is that each secured bigger $$ than BB wanted to spend. Maybe the $$$ could never work long term or maybe BB and company felt the need to reestablish their slotting model.
Regardless......NE's current star safety is due huge dollars in the near future and at some point BB and company may question the value/production ratio.
Sure, the salary cap is ever increasing and sure McCourty offers a leadership component BB values......but a $12 mill rover in the outfield? How many 8 figure salaries will BB be willing to pay on defense?
Anyway, 2017 is a long way off and the brutality of this sport will likely have its say on who actually can suit up two years from now. I hope not.

supafly · Nov 13, 2015

I think one can argue that we can pretty much could free up money to keep just about anyone every single year, but that doesn't mean that it happens.

While it's obviously great that we're currently projected to have 35+ in cap space, there is obviously much more to it than "just" available room.

Guys like Belichick utilize the draft to build their team on cheap rookie pacts, particularly when salaries get on the high side of things. That's just how we stay ahead in this game during the salary cap era.

It would be great to see all 3 stay, and Belichick will definitely take everything into account for both the current and the future when making his decisions. In BB we trust!

NG Pats Fan · Nov 13, 2015

rookBoston said:
Well, he let Richard Seymour slip away, too, in his prime.

There is enough cap space to sign them all, for most teams. But BB is notorious for spending disproportionate share of his cap space on the #20-50 players on his roster... the Alan Branches, Brandon Boldens, Nate Ebners and Marcus Cannons of the team. The general calculus is that the a single $10mm player is not as important to the roster than eight $1.2mm players... or maybe a $4mm and a few $2mm players.

This is part of the Next Man Up philosophy of team building... you plan to lose players to injury, and design the roster to be deep. Rather than breaking the bank on a free agent like Suh, you bring in Branch and Siliga and Hicks and consider yourself ahead.

So, sure, BB could sign them all. But he's unlikely to do so, because if he does the overall structure of the team will be more like what Dallas is suffering under, where once their stars get hurt, they're just S.O.L. It's just never been his mode of roster building.

Key to me is that Sheard is making half(?) or two-thirds(?) of what Jones is like to demand in Free Agency... and despite what Jones brings to the team, Sheard is the better value. Ninkovich is better value, too. And Grissom + Flowers is on their rookie contracts and deserve snaps. Jones is an impactful player, but... unless he's willing to go under-market to stay in Foxboro, I think he's gone.

Collins and Hightower are the keepers, for me. BB will sign a few veterans any given year, who are elite talents and the core leaders of the team... here I'm thinking Mayo, Wilfork, Mankins, Brady, McCourty. A countable few, single digit number of rare players... the Lawrence Taylors of his team, so to speak. In this generation, I think Hightower, Collins and Gronk are the ones he is interested in building the rest of his team around, the rare and irreplaceable talent.

Seymour was not in his prime in 2009

NG Pats Fan · Nov 13, 2015

patsinthesnow said:
If Jones continues to play like this through 2016 he will command an insane Mario Williams type 100+ million dollar contract. He'll be gone. Pass rushers can be replaced and we'll survive.

Collins/Hightower are resigned and Jones is let go. BB is not paying a DE 16 million a year.

25 year old pass rushers who get 15-20 sacks a year and demonstrate incredible leadership skills are replaceable?

Jones is a must re-sign

TBR · Nov 13, 2015

Would be nice of the 3 of them took matching $10-11m/year deals

Brady6 · Nov 13, 2015

BobDigital said:
Ideally I'd like Amendola through 2020 for about 3M per year. I think with a contract that long he would be willing to go down from his contract of 6.8 to about 3.4 for 2016. Even though he may not get a ton of targets I think he is worth that money as he is a a great Edelman back up plan and a good 3rd WR and when someone guys down for a stretch it is good to get someone reliable who you know Brady trust like him on the field..

You realize Amendola just turned 30 back on the 2nd of November right? He has probably 1-3 more productive seasons, Edelman likely has 3-4 seasons because he is slightly younger. Players such as Chris Harper and other young players will need to take over for these players as they get older.

Luxusdk · Nov 13, 2015

OR BB simply give it, lets say 4-5 more years, when he know he will retire and push chips on to the tabel. He becomes "immortal" if they win 1-2 more SBs.. Nothing so fare have even showed signs of it, but I wouldn't blame him if he did.

Marinlik · Nov 13, 2015

NG Pats Fan said:
25 year old pass rushers who get 15-20 sacks a year and demonstrate incredible leadership skills are replaceable?

Jones is a must re-sign

I really want us to re-sign Jones, I'm a huge fan of him. But if he where to continue this season like this. And end up next season as the sack leader too, and getting about 20 sacks. Then he could possibly get one of those 100+M contracts because that seems to be the going rate for elite pass rushers. And if it where to get to that I would say let him go. I don't think that any player outside of a QB is worth paying around $17M in AAV for. It simply takes away too much from other parts. But I would have no problem with paying Hightower, Collins and Jones about $10M each in AAV. Even paying Collins and Hightower top rate LB contracts is fine by me. But the top pass rusher contracts are simply too inflated right now for my taste.

RobertWeathers · Nov 13, 2015

rookBoston said:
Well, he let Richard Seymour slip away, too, in his prime.

2009 Seymour was not 2003 Seymour.

Todd Bradley · Nov 13, 2015

I think Bill values Jones much more than a lot of posters on here do.

You can just hear it in his WEEI interviews, Jones has bought into the Pats culture and is a clear disciple of Bill.

Definitely think they find a way to bring him back.

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