Doug Kyed on what he'd do with Garoppolo if the Pats plan to extend Brady

sportnik · Nov 11, 2015

I know I'm in the minority here & that we are all supposed to take it as gospel that Brady has found the fountain of youth, but I think it would be very irresponsible of the Pats to trade away a promising young QB when Brady is 40 years old. Virtually every other QB in the history of the league had a significant drop off by age 42.

There's a good chance that this strategy leaves us with no legitimate starter within 5 years. I'd be very surprised if Belichick let this happen.

supafly · Nov 11, 2015

sportnik said:
I know I'm in the minority here & that we are all supposed to take it as gospel that Brady has found the fountain of youth, but I think it would be very irresponsible of the Pats to trade away a promising young QB when Brady is 40 years old. Virtually every other QB in the history of the league had a significant drop off by age 42.

There's a good chance that this strategy leaves us with no legitimate starter within 5 years. I'd be very surprised if Belichick let this happen.

Yes, I think that's a fair point. I don't believe that they'll be in any hurry to receive a 2nd or 3rd round pick for Garoppolo at this point in time. Maybe they'll be able to extend them both for reasonable money and put us in position for the passing of the torch.

Gumby · Nov 11, 2015

PATS16N0 said:
Just let him walk when his contract expires and draft a new back up for the GOAT.

Nothing has changed. Same formula for how we handled Hoyer and Cassel and Mallet.

So, if someone else signs him to starter level money (> $10m/yr), WHAT LEVEL of COMPENSATION PICK would the Pats get? Hmmmm, not higher than third per comp rules.

Therefore, if someone else really wants him (and he is good), you almost have to trade him in the last 9 months before his contract expires (a 1st to 3rd pick is better than an end of third rounder, even if you get to use him for that last season by holding him ).

ctpatsfan77 · Nov 11, 2015

sportnik said:
I know I'm in the minority here & that we are all supposed to take it as gospel that Brady has found the fountain of youth, but I think it would be very irresponsible of the Pats to trade away a promising young QB when Brady is 40 years old. Virtually every other QB in the history of the league had a significant drop off by age 42.

There's a good chance that this strategy leaves us with no legitimate starter within 5 years. I'd be very surprised if Belichick let this happen.

To be fair, the question was premised on the assumption that the Pats plan to extend Brady. I'm not saying they will or they should.

VrabelJr · Nov 12, 2015

BelichickFan said:
If Brady plans to play beyond this contract, I'd see if O'Brien still likes him and try to get something like the Texans' #2 this year and next plus Hoyer. This year's #2 would be close to the stolen pick, next year's would get us back the #2 we spent on him and Hoyer would be a good backup. O'Brien may stick with Hoyer or draft his own guy in round one, though.

And so "Brady's backup for a 2nd rounder to one of BB's buddies" begins...

supafly · Nov 12, 2015

They are both signed through the 2017 season, meaning that they're not free agents until spring of 2018.

I'm guessing that this isn't something that will be on the minds of anyone like Kraft, Belichick, or Caserio until at least another 12-15-18 months.

Maybe they reassess their position after the 2016 season, as they both head into their final year for 2017. This will tell them how much progress Garappolo has shown, and what level Brady is still playing at.

rookBoston · Nov 12, 2015

Yeah, we've had this discussion before. The difference is that JG is a higher profile prospect than the other Brady Backups have been, and he's shown more in preseason to inspire hope to the upside.

As before, it would not be unreasonable for a GM to contemplate whether using his 1st rounder on a college prospect is better/worse than using it on a guy who was raw but talented coming out of school, who's had the benefit of years in Foxboro to teach him how to be a pro. The fact that Mallett, Cassell and Hoyer are still in the league and competing, despite their inconsistent play, works to JG's advantage since he has always projected to be better than any of them.

A first or second round pick for Garoppolo seems entirely viable, assuming BB is willing to even let him go. With no fall-back solution on the roster, it may depend more on whether the Pats scouts see a player in the draft that BB willing to invest in and commit to as the new backup, than whether a team is willing to offer the early pick.

patfanken · Nov 12, 2015

JG will always have more value to the P atriots than anyone else, UNTIL he actually gets some significant game time action. So here is what the Pats should do.

1. For this off season - absolutely nothing, because there is no need. Brady will still be playing at an elite level and JG will still be under contract for 2 more years. Besides it won't be until next season that JG will really be ready to run an NFL offense.
to
2 for the 2017 off season - Now you have some decisions to be made. If Brady has a good 2016 season, and JG still hasn't played a full game yet, I'd look to extend both players for 2 more years. By then paying 20MM on the cap for 2 QB's shouldn't be onerous. You should be able to get Brady for $17MM and 3 for JG to continue to learn from the master.
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3. Of course all this changes is JG gets to play a few games over the next 2 years and shows he can play. THEN you can look to trade him if you think Brady has at least 2 more years in him. If he is traded, then the plan would be to find a veteran QB to back up Tom and draft another rookie to enter the 3 years post grad program to be the on to replace the GOAT

BOTTOM LINE - for the immediate future, this topic will be much discussed, but have no real value to the team until after the 2016 season. IMHO

oldrover · Nov 12, 2015

supafly said:
I agree with you that Kyed has lost his mind, and that's your main point, but I just have to point out how queasy I get seeing someone type or say that word these days. While you're definitely not the kind of person who would do anything malicious, there are some here on our forum who have children or family members that God handed some extra obstacles to, and those people have my full admiration (and more guts than I could ever show).

Not meaning to nitpick, so full apologies. I've certainly used it myself plenty of times, as well as other words that I'm ashamed of and would like to take back. I would just love to see a world where we begin to stray away from using those words, that's all. Maybe it will catch on and others may think twice in the future by breaking the habit? Sorry again for putting your comment on blast @oldrover.

1. My nephew and godson is autistic and will live with his parents forever. He and I talk maybe once a month... he's big on superhero movies.
2. Actually 'full ******' is a movie quote, from Tropic Thunder. Look it up. Robert Downey says it. I'm not using it here as a pejorative. However, I WOULD use the word '******ed' in context to describe my nephew. It means 'slowed'. Which he is.
3. I'm not big on PC crap. Just because little kids somewhere use the word as a playground taunt does not make it inaccurate. And rather than complain, 'he used a bad word', I'd prefer to give the besieged party some good comebacks and counter attacks.
4. All that said, while I don't agree with the 'bad word' part of your post, I'm sure your heart's in the right place on this.

ctpatsfan77 · Nov 12, 2015

patfanken said:
By then paying 20MM on the cap for 2 QB's shouldn't be onerous. You should be able to get Brady for $17MM and 3 for JG to continue to learn from the master.

How do you actually convince him to stay for $3M a year, though?

supafly · Nov 12, 2015

oldrover said:
1. My nephew and godson is autistic and will live with his parents forever. He and I talk maybe once a month... he's big on superhero movies.
2. Actually 'full ******' is a movie quote, from Tropic Thunder. Look it up. Robert Downey says it. I'm not using it here as a pejorative. However, I WOULD use the word '******ed' in context to describe my nephew. It means 'slowed'. Which he is.
3. I'm not big on PC crap. Just because little kids somewhere use the word as a playground taunt does not make it inaccurate. And rather than complain, 'he used a bad word', I'd prefer to give the besieged party some good comebacks and counter attacks.
4. All that said, while I don't agree with the 'bad word' part of your post, I'm sure your heart's in the right place on this.

Fair enough. I'm really not super PC myself either. I just know that many find the word offensive, that's all. Either way, I appreciate the response.

SVN · Nov 12, 2015

PATS16N0 said:
Just let him walk when his contract expires and draft a new back up for the GOAT.

Nothing has changed. Same formula for how we handled Hoyer and Cassel and Mallet.

Well..the pats will be faced with a choice. If brady plays like this through his contract, how do they extrapolate how many more yrs he will play like this.
I hope brady plays here till he retires but I cna see the front office making some not so fun decisions with brady.

Fencer · Nov 12, 2015

If the Pats just let Garoppalo eventually walk, and he's perceived as having significant value by somebody, they'll probably get some kind of comp pick for him.

If he turns down Ken's $3 million/year for a better deal elsewhere, that pick will likely be at least a 5th and perhaps a 4th ...

AzorianPats · Nov 12, 2015

PATS16N0 said:
They can all hold a clipboard just as well as the other.

Nahhhhh, Mallet can't even show up for that.

DarrylS · Nov 12, 2015

In my unabashed homerism think there is a plan of succession in place.. Brady will play until 40 the end of his contract and Garrapolo will assume the helm.. this whole 10 more year is just a smokescreen. If he gets ring #5, that might hasten this plan..

IMO they drafted Garrapolo last year as part of a plan to get it "right" , if he was a flop they would have a few more chances to find the right guy..

everlong · Nov 12, 2015

The problem at this point is guys like Montana, Young and Warner were rolling along until that one big hit that changed things. Hopefully Brady never takes that hit but what looks now to be at least another three year window can close at this age really fast. If they're going to trade Garrapolo they need to draft his replacement and then make sure the kid can play before dealing him.

If you do deal him you might be able to get max value for him from Houston because BOB has to be thinking I've only got a short window to turn this around. So he might like the idea of taking a guy who's showed some promise and has two years of development in the same system and has watched day in day out how the GOAT does it. On the flip side although Jimmy has shown more promise than any other QB backing up Brady to this point he hasn't done it the way Brady does. He's not going through his progressions and hitting the 4th receiver. It's generally one of his first two reads and if not he's using his legs. Which in itself is fine there's lots of QBs like Ben or Luck who do exactly that but Jimmy doesn't have their size and I don't think he'll stand up to the pounding. Not just because of the school but Romo might be a good comp size and style wise. I think most teams would take a Romo and just reel him in more than Dallas does because of their enabling owner.

Angelpats · Nov 12, 2015

We are really high on our own players. We wanted 1st rounders for mallet. We still think Jonas is the second coming of Walter Payton. They show a little bit here and there but have not don't anything consistently and unless they do I don't think anyone will give use what we think their value is. Grap is a second rounder and his value to us really is to be our backup, and keep him in that role until his contract runs out. After it does run out what we get back will depend on what more he will have shown other clubs and you certainly don't franchise him unless Brady gets hurt and he comes in and win 11 games.

PP2 · Nov 12, 2015

everlong said:
The problem at this point is guys like Montana, Young and Warner were rolling along until that one big hit that changed things. Hopefully Brady never takes that hit but what looks now to be at least another three year window can close at this age really fast. If they're going to trade Garrapolo they need to draft his replacement and then make sure the kid can play before dealing him.

If you do deal him you might be able to get max value for him from Houston because BOB has to be thinking I've only got a short window to turn this around. So he might like the idea of taking a guy who's showed some promise and has two years of development in the same system and has watched day in day out how the GOAT does it. On the flip side although Jimmy has shown more promise than any other QB backing up Brady to this point he hasn't done it the way Brady does. He's not going through his progressions and hitting the 4th receiver. It's generally one of his first two reads and if not he's using his legs. Which in itself is fine there's lots of QBs like Ben or Luck who do exactly that but Jimmy doesn't have their size and I don't think he'll stand up to the pounding. Not just because of the school but Romo might be a good comp size and style wise. I think most teams would take a Romo and just reel him in more than Dallas does because of their enabling owner.

The big difference between those three quarterbacks (and pretty much every other quarterbacks at that time) was that they were not taking care of themselves the way Brady does now; they were not continually refining their game to correspond with their physical change (i.e., Brady developing that quick release).

This is not to say that Brady won't get hit, but the way he trains now, not just physically, but mentally and reflexively, it's a lot less likely that he just jaywalks into a big hit the way Montana, Young, and Warner did.

Kjmass1 · Nov 12, 2015

BB wildcard move: Brady traded to Texans for 2 1st rounders after 2016 season. Garoppolo extended. Brady then retires.

PP2 · Nov 12, 2015

ctpatsfan77 said:
How do you actually convince him to stay for $3M a year, though?

Hopefully he or his agent understands just how competent an organization the Patriots are, and that there are only 2 or 3 other organizations anywhere near that level and all of them have good QB's.

He stands a good risk of not being able to maximize his capabilities and shortening his career if he ends up in the wrong place which, these days, is almost a 50/50 proposition, considering the state of the NFL.

Not to mention he'd have to learn a new offense from scratch and set himself back a season or two.

Doug Kyed on what he'd do with Garoppolo if the Pats plan to extend Brady

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