Simplified Brady/Manning regular season statline comparison

Here is a very simple stat line that compares only the passing numbers of Brady and Manning. This doesn't account for winning percentage (which Brady has won by something bigger than a landslide), environment (where Manning has had a huge advantage playing much of his career in a dome), or supporting cast (which again Manning has a huge advantage with all his first round talent around him.)

If you take the averages of Brady and Manning for their careers during the regular season, that is by TD %, INT %, completion %, and yards per attempt...that is the four main categories to determine passer rating, you can see that even though the passer rating formula shows them as roughly equal, Brady is much better than Manning.

Let's apply their career percentages to a model season in which each throws 600 passes, which is a about the maximum range of today's NFL quarterbacks.

Peyton Manning - 392-600, 4608 yards, 35 TDs, 16 INTs (+19 TD differential)

Tom Brady - 382-600, 4482 yards, 33 TDs, 11 INTs (+22 TD differential)

Here is where Manning's slight leads in completion percentage (65.4 to 63.7) is exposed as virtually irrelevant, as this leads to a mere 10 completions over a full season or less than a completion per game, and Manning's slight edge in yards per attempt (7.68 to 7.47) leads to a paltry 126 yards over a season, or 7.88 more yards per game, and 2 TDs over a season is also negligible. In other words, those supposedly superior numbers lead to the zilch, an amount so small and with such tiny correlation to winning more that you might even say those categories are a statistical wash.

So, would you take a quarterback who, over a full season, gets you an extra 10 completions, 126 yards, and 2 TDs at the cost of 5 interceptions???

The interceptions demonstrate why Brady is a much better quarterback than Manning, and this isn't a 1a/1b debate in any way, nor would Manning "have won more Super Bowls with the Patriots." Imagine how many more losses the Patriots would have if Brady threw FIVE more interceptions on average every season! FIVE! If approximately once every three games, Brady turned was picked off an additional time, he would then have the same value as Peyton Manning, or if Manning were to reduce his interceptions by nearly 32%, he would then have the same statistical value of Brady. That is right. Manning throws interceptions almost 33% more than Brady, a huge factor in wins and losses. If Brady threw 5 more INTs per season and Manning threw 5 less INTs per season, their winning percentages would likely flip flop, or at least it would be close. This factor has far more to do with their gap in winning percentage than coaching, defense, luck, system, etc.

For anyone to claim Manning is better than Brady during the regular season, or to say that "Manning has the stats, Tom has the rings", that claim has no basis in reality. Statistically, Brady has been much more valuable than Manning.

Fantastic post!

You should contact Kerry Byrne from www.coldhardfootballfacts.com with these numbers

Very well argued. I've had some more intellectual Brady/Manning arguments lately and, for the most part, they don't even play the stats card much anymore. Now it's all about how Brady has received better coaching and system support as well as the occasional odd claim that Tom has better weapons.

The system support claim is pretty easy to rebut, though it generally goes over their heads. Manning is lauded as being the architect of his offense, so he clearly thought it was the optimal system for his skill set. If Manning was right their argument is flawed, if he was wrong then it exposes a knowledge or character flaw that manifests in negative on field results.

It ends up boiling down to an updated version of the "system QB" argument.

At the end of their careers, Brady's regular season stats will be far superior to Manning's. They are currently both around 96 PER and Manning is falling fast. Brady should comfortably post PER in excess of 100 for at least 2 or 3 more years.

This doesn't even account for Manning playing most of his career in a dome, and Brady dealing with the fantastic New England weather.

To be fair, you throw Aaron Rodgers in to the same statistical breakdown and he's the no brainer answer, and by a wide margin.

The manning/ Brady conversation has been going for so long, there are so many built in reactionary answers. As both have gotten older, Brady has aged like a Greek god and manning has fallen apart like a paper mâché doll. Still, in his prime manning was a beauty to watch, and truly the only player who has ever created any sort of fear within me.

It's the best modern day player rivalry, and I feel blessed that it's still going.

I'd like to see cap number for starting offensive positions as well (career/average). I would expect that Brady has an advantage there, though probably not lately as Manning has some good skill players on rookie contracts.

Then you could see how many points per million you got. though their volume stats are comparable, if Brady was cheaper than Manning, then all the better value.

This argument supports Rodgers > Brady. I don't agree with that.

Wheelman said:

This argument supports Rodgers > Brady. I don't agree with that.

Click to expand...

I think you might be missing the larger point. These stats aren't the crux of the argument for Brady, they demonstrate that Manning even loses in the area that common perception generally gives him the edge. Rodgers may take this one, but there are plenty others where he falls short.

Just looking at the raw numbers - no extrapolation for "if they threw xxx" or anything else - total stats, average game. That's all ...



Look at the average game - these two are nearly identical. Twins. Can't tell them apart! The big difference is that Manning is probably the best pure passer the NFL has ever seen. Tom, on the other hand, is the best complete QB the NFL has ever seen. What he lacks (or lacked, maybe?) in pure physical talent he makes (made?) up for in vision, intelligence, leadership, and a host of other intangibles.

Here's the rub; the comments in "( )" were added because we are seeing a Tom Brady with both the intangible skills AND the physical. Over the years he has worked the kinks out of every aspect of his game. While he does not have Manning's pure physical talent, he is closing in on what Peyton used to be, with no drop off in intelligence, leadership, vision, etc.


PS: I left out yards because they are so misleading. YAC, busted plays, etc just skew the numbers.

Chevy said:

Manning is probably the best pure passer the NFL has ever seen.

Click to expand...

Chevy said:

View attachment 11209

Look at the average game - these two are nearly identical. Twins. Can't tell them apart!

Click to expand...

Huh?!? Did you happen to notice the major difference in the INT category? Over a full season, that's 4-5 INTs. Which team do yo think will win more games using only that fact?

Deus Irae said:

Click to expand...

Yeah, he's a Manning so the reality is that he sucks, and is just lucky ... . Watching him play, I never got that sense of presence you see watching Brady. Manning excelled being able to make the throw. Brady inspires his receivers to make the catch. Leadership v Physical/Mental traits. This is exactly why Brady has done far better when the pressure is on - late season and playoff football.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

Huh?!? Did you happen to notice the major difference in the INT category? Over a full season, that's 4-5 INTs. Which team do yo think will win more games using only that fact?

Click to expand...

I did. How many are tips? Freak plays? Receiver brain-farts? One or two really bad days? (we've seen Brady have these). When it comes down to it these two have had remarkably similar careers stat-wise. The big difference is that Brady quickly grew into a far more complete QB, while Manning remained a pure passer. The results are 4 rings and a sick win rate.

Chevy said:

Yeah, he's a Manning so the reality is that he sucks, and is just lucky ... . Watching him play, I never got that sense of presence you see watching Brady. Manning excelled being able to make the throw. Brady inspires his receivers to make the catch. Leadership v Physical/Mental traits. This is exactly why Brady has done far better when the pressure is on - late season and playoff football.

Click to expand...

I'm a bit confused by your reply post. My post was a picture of Dan Marino laughing, not because Manning sucks, but because Dan Marino is the greatest "pure passer" in the history of the NFL.

Chevy said:

I did. How many are tips? Freak plays? Receiver brain-farts? One or two really bad days? (we've seen Brady have these). When it comes down to it these two have had remarkably similar careers stat-wise.

Click to expand...

17,000 combined passing attempts between the two QBs. Are you really trying to bury this stark difference in interceptions by writing it off to random variance? If that were true, the numbers would be much closer together over this gigantic sample size. They aren't. Arguing this is silly.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

17,000 combined passing attempts between the two QBs. Are you really trying to bury this stark difference in interceptions by writing it off to random variance? If that were true, the numbers would be much closer together over this gigantic sample size. They aren't. Arguing this is silly.

Click to expand...

Should running TDs be counted as well? Maybe count only those run in from the 5 yard line or less? After all, the QB most likely had some function in getting the team down that close (granted there could be fumble recoveries, punt/ kick returns that ended in that zone as well, but either it will be a small number or balance out).

stats are for sissies. stats are results of

1. players around the QB
2. coaching style
3. division style


if we lose gronk and jules, brady's number will take a hit. if our oline is healthy, lewis never gets hurt, and on top of that we have 28 year old prime randy moss, brady's number will soar. but brady is still same brady regardless of what we have. if we decide to run the ball 50 times every game and only throws 15-18 times, that doesn't make brady any worse than brady who throws 50+ times.


rodgers may end up with all time great stats, but i'll take brady and win.

Having access to the world renowned SAM 2046 (Statistical Analysis Machine) I decided to input expert opinions, Random Forum Opinions, Completion % Indoor, Comp % Outdoor, Comp % outdoors but with indoor conditions, Games played with/without working headsets, Weather temps from each game, Pure INT, Tipped INT, Random INT (bounced off players helmet/foot/knee etc.., added a K value for PSI accuracy and came up with a Probable QB GOAT Analysis or PQBGOATA for short.

Because of SAM 2046's AI interface I had to deal with feedback such as : "INPUT DATA IS NOT LOGICAL" "ARE YOU REALLY THIS STUPID?" "THIS STATUS WAS CLEARLY RESOLVED FEB 1 2015" "I KNOW A TIC-TAC-TOE PLAYING ROOSTER WHO COULD SOLVE THIS FOR YOU"

Anyways despite the insulting environment I decided to plow through to give you the definitive results you are looking for.

They are complicated but I have pasted them below for your reference.







Regular Season Quarterback Win/Loss Records | The Football Database

Tom Brady NFL Football Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com

So in summary, Tom Brady is better than Peyton Manning. Cool.

Deus Irae said:

Click to expand...

It would be interesting to compare the leadership qualities of Montana/Marino and Brady/Manning. This remains the area in which I anecdotally see massive differences between the players but parallels between the overall dynamics of their career arcs.

Such a study might highlight things we don't usually discuss...motivation, attitude, followership, sacrifice (such as the cap issue), advocacy, etc, etc.

It could validate or totally debunk common understanding of these players roles in their team's success or failure across preparation, regular season and playoffs.

Oh if I had the time...