Uh oh, here we go: CBS claims Pats win coin flip at "impossible clip"

Try

Bruins29 said:

I know and I would like to find one. You would think as a singer I would watch the talent shows. Nope. I launch products for companies so you would think Shark Tank would fascinate me....Nope, never even watched it.

I will watch shows about things - non fiction. Stuff about business or sports. Just cant seem to get into any series.

Click to expand...

Try Fargo on FX

I'm surprised that visiting teams haven't figured out that BB has developed a machine that manipulates gravity so he can increase the probability of the coin landing on the side he wants it too. Then again, I'm not surprised because these are the same bunch of dum-dums that had no idea how the ideal gas law impacts the psi in footballs.

Heh..

They are cheaters. They have won the coin toss 19 of their past 25 games. Assuming a 50/50 chance of getting it right on each flip, the odds of winning 19 out of 25 times is 0.75%. You would almost think the NFL lets them use their own coin….

Click to expand...

rexxar said:

Heh..

Click to expand...

Living rent-free...

I don't know whether to be pissed or proud of this. I first wrote a satirical take on this a month ago (link), and then last week in the lead up to the Dolphins game I tweeted out some of the updated stats again. Some of the Boston beat guys jumped on it and then it pops up in the Boston Globe from McBride yesterday, only to be picked up and spun like this by CBS Sports. Of course I got no credit for any of it, not that I really care that much, but it is funny to see something that started as satire come full circle to the point where it's actually spun the way I was making fun of in the first place.

TheFlyingWedge said:

It is well known throughout the league that David Blaine is on the Patriots payroll.

Click to expand...

More Jedi mind tricks.
Seriously i have noticed over the years that the patriots seem to win most of the coin flips,but i thought i must have just seemed that way.

Jackson 2 said:

As someone in the comments section pointed out, each weekly coin flip is an independent event. The odds are 50/50 for each weekly flip. The same person flipping the same coin 25 times in a row is different than 25 weekly coin flips by a different official each week. Moronic premise to a moronic article.

Click to expand...

You realize that the whole coin flip part of the thing was tongue in cheek right?

Over sensitivity strikes again. Plenty of things to be legitimately upset about.

Some how Ernie Adams must be involved.

SVN said:

here is the sad part. Someone equally idiotic -and there are many of them - is going to take this and run with it posing some questions like something nefarious is going on.

Click to expand...

No they aren't.

The Pats have won 21 straight before. At an 80% win prob each game, that comes out at 0.0092 probability of winning 21 straight... which they have done. Long shot odds happen.

There's a reason why they picked 25 games. If they go back longer, it will even out.

Bruins29 said:

the probability of winning it at least 19 times in 25 tries is 0.0073. That's less than three-quarters of one percent.

That is 1 in 7,300 if my math is correct, which is ****ed up.

Click to expand...

Actual probability of winning the coin flip is 50%.

What the author seems to not understand is that the odds of winning are exactly the same every time, because every coin flip is a separate game. It's like Roulette. Just because the ball lands on black 12 times straight, it doesn't mean that "it's due" to land on red. Each spin of the wheel is a separate game, with it's own set of odds, and getting black is a 50% chance. It's why the payout for hitting it (or red) is so low.

Whenever the ref flips the coin, it's a single chance, and it means nothing to look at the number of times the Patriots (or any other team) has won the coin toss. It's only that single flip, that single game, like a spin of the Roulette wheel, that matters. Once it's over, the odds reset to default, and we're ready for a new game.

Simple game theory, a Statistics 101 will teach you all about it.

Kdo5 said:

A lot of fans are so deluded that they actually believe the NFL is in Kraft's pocket...after being docked a first, a fourth, and suspending Brady for games over something that doesn't matter, if it even happened.

Click to expand...

But the Pats got off light. It should have been even more severe.

aluminum seats said:

I was wondering when they'd be on to us....

Patriots have no need for probability, win coin flip at impossible clip - CBSSports.com

Click to expand...

This is no less ridiculous than deflategate so I'm expecting a loss of picks after a multi-million dollar "independent" investigation.

"What's the most you ever lost on a coin toss? Call it."

The Gr8est said:

But the Pats got off light. It should have been even more severe.

Click to expand...

Actually it was the "makeup" call for the Patriots getting off so easy in "spygate" . . . you know, the one where they lost only a 1st round pick for filmingsomething in plain view from a sideline instead of a booth.

memento said:

Coin flips, fumble rates, warm visitor gatorade, visiting players lose their playbooks, visiting teams afraid to use locker room trash cans, bug sweeps, illegal microphone battery guy, headsetgate, deflategate, spygate -- is that all of them?

Click to expand...

Remember snapgate? Did Pats steal Pittsburgh snap counts? - Scoop Du Jour - NFL Blog - Yahoo! Sports

SVN said:

here is the sad part. Someone equally idiotic -and there are many of them - is going to take this and run with it posing some questions like something nefarious is going on.

Click to expand...

C'mon, I've never heard of such a thing!

Gwedd said:

Actual probability of winning the coin flip is 50%.

What the author seems to not understand is that the odds of winning are exactly the same every time, because every coin flip is a separate game. It's like Roulette. Just because the ball lands on black 12 times straight, it doesn't mean that "it's due" to land on red. Each spin of the wheel is a separate game, with it's own set of odds, and getting black is a 50% chance. It's why the payout for hitting it (or red) is so low.

Whenever the ref flips the coin, it's a single chance, and it means nothing to look at the number of times the Patriots (or any other team) has won the coin toss. It's only that single flip, that single game, like a spin of the Roulette wheel, that matters. Once it's over, the odds reset to default, and we're ready for a new game.

Simple game theory, a Statistics 101 will teach you all about it.

Click to expand...

Is there a way to introduce bias and make it less random? IE a robot flipping the coin the exact same way will not have a 50-50 chance. Eventually you'll hit infinite 0% odds.

Robot=Hypothetical referees paid off by the krafts to flip one way for us, another way for others. (Lots of sarcasm here).

Bruins29 said:

the probability of winning it at least 19 times in 25 tries is 0.0073. That's less than three-quarters of one percent.

That is 1 in 7,300 if my math is correct, which is ****ed up.

Click to expand...

It's also ********.

It's still a 50% chance every game. I don't care what the probability of doing it over an extended period of time is, it doesn't work that way.

Every game is 50%.

.0073 is simply there for effect and isn't meaningful to the actual results in any way, shape, or form.

rochrist said:

You realize that the whole coin flip part of the thing was tongue in cheek right?

Over sensitivity strikes again. Plenty of things to be legitimately upset about.

Click to expand...

Of course. It just speaks loudly to the fact that even some, not all, humor related to the concept of the Patriots cheating really pisses me off. To the charge of "sensitivity", I plead guilty, Your Honor.