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Uh oh, here we go: CBS claims Pats win coin flip at "impossible clip"


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Nothing quite so extreme. I found I could eliminate most of the noise by avoiding a big chunk of the FM dial (you remember radio? YES!!! :p), theaters and so-called reality shows. Some things inevitably filter through, but I am pleased at how much of the junk could be so easily quarantined.

I will confess to being somewhat of a loner too, which, drawbacks aside, has helped in making this stuff more avoidable.
Yeah, I would have never thought I would listen to pop music as I always preferred my stuff. As I have aged and matured I find that the top 40 stuff is what is appealing. I like that it does connect me to pop culture which is good when out on dates and discussing new music, or being in tune with the world for work.

Then again I am a musician (not be career) so music has a place in my heart. Its art to me as are movies.

Reality TV is garbage, as is most TV so I think its great to avoid that but I think you are missing out on real good stuff - movies etc which shouldnt be lumped in with Kardashians and the other seedy garbage most people are fascinated by
 
You say that like it's a bad thing.
Dont think its a bad thing at all. For years I would necer listen to the radio. I have not watched a (fictitious) TV show seriously in 20 years.

I just think there is a big difference between choosing what you want to be exposed to and just claiming that all pop culture is the same
 
Vizzini: I can't compete with you physically, and you're no match for my brains.
Man in Black: [intrigued] You're that smart?
Vizzini: Let me put it this way: Have you ever heard of Plato? Aristotle? Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
Man in Black: Really? In that case, I challenge you to a coin flip.
Vizzini: For possession of the ball? [The Man in Black nods] To Kick or Recieve? [He nods] I accept.
Man in Black: Good. Then flip the coin. [Vizzini pulls out a coin] See both sides this, but do not touch.
Vizzini: [sniffs] I see nothing special.
Man in Black: What you do not see is called a commerative dollar. It is heads is the profile of the commisioner, and tails is the 50 year commemorative symbol.
[He puts the coins behind his back and, show the coin heads on top tails the bottom]
Man in Black: All right. Flip the coin? The battle of wits has begun. It ends when you decide and we will flip, and find out who is right... and who has lost.
Vizzini: But it's so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you: are you the sort of man who would call head into his own coin or his enemy's? Now, a clever man would call tails, because he would know that only a great fool would call for what he was shown. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the heads in front of me. But you must have known I was not a great fool. You would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the tails which is not for me.
Man in Black: You've made your decision then?
Vizzini: Not remotely! Because coin comes from the League, as everyone knows! And the League is entirely peopled with criminals. And criminals are used to having people not trust them, as you are not trusted by me, so I can clearly not choose then heads in front of you.
Man in Black: Truly, you have a dizzying intellect.
Vizzini: Wait till I get going! Now, where was I?
Man in Black: The league.
Vizzini: Yes, the league. And you must have suspected I would have known the coin's origin, so I can clearly not choose tails on the coin.
Man in Black: You're just stalling now.
Vizzini: You'd like to think that, wouldn't you?! You've beaten my giant, which means you're exceptionally strong, so you want me to chose heads, trusting on your flip to save you, so I can clearly not choose heads! But, you've also bested my Spaniard, which means you must have studied, and in studying you must have learned that man is mortal, so you would have put the losing side as far from yourself as possible, so I can clearly not choose the tails!
Man in Black: You're trying to trick me into giving away something. It won't work.
Vizzini: It has worked! You've given everything away! I know what side to pick!
Man in Black Then make your choice.
Vizzini: I will, and I choose- What in the world can that be? [Vizzini points at a rock behind the Man in Black. When he turns to look, Vizzini swaps the coin]
Man in Black: What? Where? I don't see anything.
Vizzini: Well, I- I could have sworn I saw something. No matter. [He is having a hard time containing his laughter]
Man in Black: What's so funny?
Vizzini: I--I'll tell you in a minute. First, let's flip. I call heads! [They flip the coin]
Man in Black: You guessed wrong.
Vizzini: You only think I guessed wrong! That's what's so funny! I switched coin when your back was turned! Ha ha, you fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia," but only slightly less well-known is this: "Never flip against a Sicilian when the game is on the line!" [He laughs hysterically, but suddenly freezes mid-laugh and realizes he lost the flip]
 
here is the sad part. Someone equally idiotic -and there are many of them - is going to take this and run with it posing some questions like something nefarious is going on.
 
Yeah, I would have never thought I would listen to pop music as I always preferred my stuff. As I have aged and matured I find that the top 40 stuff is what is appealing. I like that it does connect me to pop culture which is good when out on dates and discussing new music, or being in tune with the world for work.

Then again I am a musician (not be career) so music has a place in my heart. Its art to me as are movies.

Reality TV is garbage, as is most TV so I think its great to avoid that but I think you are missing out on real good stuff - movies etc which shouldnt be lumped in with Kardashians and the other seedy garbage most people are fascinated by
Wait....there's top 40 music? That seems impossible or at the very least a coin toss.
 
I like that it does connect me to pop culture which is good when out on dates and discussing new music, or being in tune with the world for work.

Good point/reminder. If I ever get serious about getting out of my shell, I'm going to have to have some cultural touchstones to connect with as well.

Reality TV is garbage, as is most TV so I think its great to avoid that but I think you are missing out on real good stuff - movies etc which shouldnt be lumped in with Kardashians and the other seedy garbage most people are fascinated by

I'm certainly not trying to lump all these things together, I just haven't managed to muster up the enthusiasm to do the sorting out. I've formed a movie skipping habit, and habits are so easy to leave on autopilot.

Besides the whole matter of quality, there's also the issue of my preferences. I've always been drawn to things that have a fun, escapist aspect, and that taste has acted as a different sort of filter.
 
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So the NFL* Post-Loss Complaint" form page one of two?
 
I'm betting plenty of people took the same wrong turn.

.1 is a tenth, .01 is a hundredth, .001 is a thousandth. So .0073 is 7.3 thousandths.
7.3 per 1000, divide both terms by 7.3, = 1 in 136.

But practically speaking, that's not the real probability we're talking about. There are 32 teams flipping, so the chances that SOME team will win that often is 32 times greater. Then consider that the number of flips was cherry picked to come out with the most extreme result.

For the record, it doesn't actually work that way; if the odds of something happening is P, the chances that it happens in N tries isn't N*P; it's 1 – (1 – P)^N. For relatively small values of N, N*P is a good approximation, though.
 
I have not watched a (fictitious) TV show seriously in 20 years.
Looks like it's pop culture day at Pats Fans!

There's a ton of good TV out there, should really take a look. TV is pretty much lapping the movies in terms of overall quality.
 
Looks like it's pop culture day at Pats Fans!

There's a ton of good TV out there, should really take a look. TV is pretty much lapping the movies in terms of overall quality.
I know and I would like to find one. You would think as a singer I would watch the talent shows. Nope. I launch products for companies so you would think Shark Tank would fascinate me....Nope, never even watched it.

I will watch shows about things - non fiction. Stuff about business or sports. Just cant seem to get into any series.
 
Looks like it's pop culture day at Pats Fans
Aww, how about a little love for the statisticians? :p

I can just imagine these guys during March Madness - "you want brackets? I've got your damned brackets!!!"
 
For the record, it doesn't actually work that way; if the odds of something happening is P, the chances that it happens in N tries isn't N*P; it's 1 – (1 – P)^N. For relatively small values of N, N*P is a good approximation, though.

Yes!! When I posted that, I told my daughter "Just watch, somebody will call me on the oversimplification. This is PatsFans.com, after all!" :D:D

Now here's a point to ponder: the events aren't strictly independent, since a winning flip for any given team means a loss for one of the other 31.
 
I have never seen any of the Rocky movies. Never had a desire to. TV puts me to sleep and when I do watch tv it is usually of the commercial free variety, ie; Western Channel, Turner Classic Movies, etc. I do watch the Science Channel but usually doze off within minutes. Football and baseball games are my regular tv choices.
 
here is the sad part. Someone equally idiotic -and there are many of them - is going to take this and run with it posing some questions like something nefarious is going on.
"Mr. Vincent, I have a Mr. Grigson on line one and a Mr. Harbaugh on line two blabbering on about math and coin flips and the Patriots.".....
 
i ran across this article from 2011 in looking for coin flip stats:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?id=7256331

at that point in the season, the saints were 0 for 11 in coin flips (10 pre-game and 1 OT), which is a 1 in 2048 probability or 0.000488, and the browns were 0 for 9, a 1 in 512 probability or 0.00195.

it's a good demonstration that seemingly unlikely events happen more often than one might think.
 
i also ran across this article while looking for coin flip stats:

Majority of NFL coin toss winners now defer choice of whether to receive until second half

The number of teams that won the opening coin toss and chose to defer has dramatically increased since the rule was adopted for the 2008 season — from 38 percent to 68 percent.

The year-by-year breakdown since 2011:

2011: 41 percent

2012: 55 percent

2013: 65 percent

2014: 68 percent (through Sunday’s day games)

almost certainly this is due to belichick.

from the previous article i linked above:

That's about the same as the 52.6 percent that STATS shows for coin-toss "victories" matching up with game victories since the start of the 2008 season, when the NFL changed the rules to allow the team that wins the toss to defer its choice until the second half.

he stated during the 2008 preseason that they would usually defer. i bet he already knew the 52% statistic:

PATRIOTS NOTEBOOK: Belichick not sure about wiring defense

After saying earlier in the preseason that the Patriots would most often defer when winning the pregame coin toss, Belichick indicated he may be having some second thoughts on the subject.

he obviously thought about it a lot. here is what he said in a press conference on 10/24/2008:

Bill Belichick Press Conference - 10/24/2008

Q: (Rule change option to defer...)

BB: That is a good question. In the end, you get the ball to start one half and they get the ball at the start of the other half, however it works out. It's not like you have really gained an extra possession. It is probably just a question of preference so I think a lot of coaches in the National Football League have been used to taking the ball at the start of the game. I think there is something to be said for that about setting the tone offensively and going out there - first drive and all of that. At the half, if you are kicking off at the half, if you have received the opening kickoff, now you start the second half and say, ‘OK. They are going to take the ball.' Then you really have a decision to make relative to the wind, if that is a factor. Do you have it in the third quarter when you are kicking off, or do you want it in the fourth quarter when the passing and kicking game might be a little more important? I think it is a little bit of a reverse of that when you defer. You have the opportunity for two possessions - one at the end of the half, and one at the start of the third quarter - so there is a chance for that back-to-back possession and then you don't always have that third quarter decision. If you defer than you take the ball and take the wind at the start of the game then the second half it puts the ball in their court as far as that wind decision goes, which is always a tough one. Whatever you decide to do on that you are always giving some consideration to the other side, do I want it in the third or do I want it in the fourth? So I don't even know if I have answered your question. It certainly has made it more of a decision than it was in the past. Unless you were playing in a hurricane you just automatically take the ball. Now there is some things to consider and I do think there is a certain comfort level in the National Football League with just taking the ball. But I bet you in ten years if this rule stayed the same and a bunch of college coaches came into the NFL I bet they would feel more comfortable deferring. It is interesting. I saw before the Denver game, I saw some of Coach Shanahan's comments of ‘we always want the ball.' I can see that. The Kansas City game we made that same decision, we took the ball.
 
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A lot of fans are so deluded that they actually believe the NFL is in Kraft's pocket...after being docked a first, a fourth, and suspending Brady for games over something that doesn't matter, if it even happened.
 
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