Will this defense be top ten? (hint: no)

2011 team forced 34 turnovers which was tied for #2 in the league and that was not a good defense.

I would rather be a team that doesn't need to rely on a turnover to make stops than a team that has to force turnovers as a way of making stops

Just read Peter King's column at:


One comment of his in this column which is relevant to this thread:

l. Dont'a Hightower. Chandler Jones. Never thought the Patriots would be a top-five defense in the league this year, but they are.

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Now I suppose PK should be taken with a grain of salt, but it is still another data point...

JMC00 said:

2011 team forced 34 turnovers which was tied for #2 in the league and that was not a good defense.

I would rather be a team that doesn't need to rely on a turnover to make stops than a team that has to force turnovers as a way of making stops

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Forcing turnovers doesn't mean you have to rely on them it means you are skilled at forcing them.
Points allowed is the #1 gauge of a defense and takeaways is a close second. Everything else is very far behind. Why? Because preventing scores and taking the ball away are the goals of a defense. The other stat metrics are things people look at yo compare defenses to guess at all things equal which is more successful at those 2 things.


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JMC00 said:

2011 team forced 34 turnovers which was tied for #2 in the league and that was not a good defense.

I would rather be a team that doesn't need to rely on a turnover to make stops than a team that has to force turnovers as a way of making stops

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Not sure if this was in response to my post, but I wasn't trying to imply that being 19th in takeaways made them a bad defense. Just that using TO margin in a list of defensive statistics would be like saying the Patriots defense beat the Jets 30-23. You can't use a team stat as a sign that the defense alone is playing well, especially when that stat is due primarily to the offense's contribution (in this case, an absurdly low number of TO's).

Chiuba E. Obele said:

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I love those big play stats. Not that they are the most indicative measures of how well a defense is playing, but they do constitute big plays, and every defense needs those.

I'm loving the development of our defense. It took a while for it to come together (partly because of the swings and misses on defensive backs), but the line looks really good, as do the linebackers and safeties. The cornerbacks have even played well this year.

We're playing like a top five defense, for sure.

@Interception Here's another way to approach this....

"New England averages a 10-point lead at halftime. So the first-half numbers -- when it’s still a ballgame -- matter and in the first two quarters, the Patriots rank fifth in points allowed, fourth in yards per play, eighth in yards per carry allowed and fourth in total yards. They’re not infallible by any means, but they are very good."

From @manxman2601, who's written truly brilliant posts in the past hour

manxman2601 said:

The Patriots have conceded 133 points this season compared to the Broncos' 112. However, 49 of the points the Patriots have conceded have come after we've achieved a 99% probability of a win (i.e.. garbage time). On the other hand, the Broncos have only conceded 3 garbage time points.

So, excluding garbage time (99% probability of a win), the Patriots have only conceded 84 points compared to the Broncos' 109.

See the link for the full explanation.

Patriots Defense Playing Tremendously, but Garbage Time Skews the Stats

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manxman2601 said:

Just some other defensive tidbits from PFF:

• Patrick Chung is their 4th highest rated Patriot this season behind Brady, Gronk and McCourty
• They love our safeties in coverage. Harmon (3rd), Chung (4th) and McCourty (5th) only trail Malcolm Jenkins and Charles Woodson amongst all NFL safeties in pass coverage.
• Harmon is the 6th best player on the team (offence and defence) according to them.
• Hightower (12th) and Collins (14th) don't grade out super high amongst linebackers. Hightower is punished for his coverage and Collins for his run defence. But in terms of pass rush, Hightower is the highest graded linebacker and Collins the 5th highest.
• Easley gets a high grade, the rest of the interior DL don't.
• Chandler Jones is the 32nd highest ranked Edge defender. Sheard is ranked above him.
• Coleman, Butler and Ryan are all in the top 63 CBs. Logan Ryan is graded the highest at 37.

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manxman2601 said:

Was just browsing through PFF and only one player in the NFL has a situational grade* above 100 currently. Can you name him?

* Situational grade means a specific role i.e. Pass blocking, or Run Defense or Pass Rushing etc rather than the overall grade.

Spoiler: Answer:

Dont'a Hightower is the only person graded above 100. He gets that grade for his pass rushing.

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Chiuba E. Obele said:

From @manxman2601, who's written truly brilliant posts in the past hour

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Why do people keep making the idiotic, and already destroyed, "Garbage time" argument?

It's a non-starter, for multiple reasons.

Deus Irae said:

Why do people keep making the idiotic, and already destroyed, "Garbage time" argument?

It's a non-starter, for multiple reasons.

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Because we don't think it's idiotic.

manxman2601 said:

Because we don't think it's idiotic.

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But it is, and demonstrably so.

Deus Irae said:

Why do people keep making the idiotic, and already destroyed, "Garbage time" argument?

It's a non-starter.

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You can approach it from any number of angles Deus...this just happens to be a way to measure the success our defense in limiting opposing offenses to "ineffective" garbage points. Why not give credit when credit is due?

Deus Irae said:

But it is, and demonstrably so.

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Demonstrate it then please.

Chiuba E. Obele said:

You can approach it from any number of angles Deus...this just happens to be a way to measure the success our defense in limiting opposing offenses to "ineffective" garbage points. Why not give credit when credit is due?

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No, this is a way to try making the defense look better by manipulating the facts with a lousy argument.

manxman2601 said:

Demonstrate it then please.

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I've done it, multiples times, already. The Jets game alone is enough to demonstrate the idiocy of the argument.

manxman2601 said:

Because we don't think it's idiotic.

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deus only thinks it's idiotic because it makes the defense look good.

Deus Irae said:

I've done it, multiples times, already. The Jets game alone is enough to demonstrate the idiocy of the argument.

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Right ho! the only problem with the Jets example is that the 99% win probability didn't come until 1 min left in the game so it's actually completely irrelevant to my point and therefore proves absolutely nothing.

manxman2601 said:

Right ho! the only problem with the Jets example is that the 99% win probability didn't come until 1 min left in the game so it's actually completely irrelevant to my point and therefore proves absolutely nothing.

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Ya I don't think anyone when they post garbage time stats is including the jests game except for deus.

JMC00 said:

Ya I don't think anyone when they post garbage time stats is including the jests game except for deus.

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I'm curious to see how Deus uses the Jets game as evidence about 'garbage time' considering the Jets were leading going into the 4th Q. Maybe in his bid to call others' work 'idiotic' he jumped the gun a little.

I dont think you can just arbitrarily throw out stats though. While I get this "GT" theory and believe it has some merit, the Patriots D is getting credit there for something that is not of their doing.

I am just trying to learn the real science here. So I would appreciate some help really trying to get the true data

If someone was on another fans message board and trying to show their D was better than the Patriots, wouldn't the first thing they say is that the Pats has the advantage of playing offenses that are taking many more risks?

Or maybe this is more black and white and I am overthinking it?