Very thin @ CB.. Will a trade for an experienced CB be viable?

Deus Irae said:

That's just it. They haven't been ok. They've gotten away with poor play because the front 7 is playing so well against the pass, and because the opposing QBs have been a collection of stiffs that couldn't exploit the poor CB play.

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The question is, who will take advantage of it with QB play down in the league? I'd argue Big Ben/Luck/Bortles/Taylor are a better crop of QBs most teams have faced. The Packers WRs can barely get open without Nelson. That offense isn't elite anymore.

The composite QBR of the QBs we've faced is still in the 90s. There just aren't many great QBs with Brees/Manning in decline.

The Steelers worry me offensively. That's about it. Fitztragic and Luck threw 0 picks and we still won both games. Doubt that happens again.

robertweathers said:

I agree completely with you except for not trading for a CB. Like you said they have been average and unless they have the 2007 NYG front 4, that simply isn't good enough these days

They need a tested vet back there.

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Do you want a lower level vet trade for depth or a big trade for a CB1?

Mack Herron said:

People whop want Smith will have to explain the cap math to me.
Sean Smith


Not sure what all the fuss is about when we have Patrick "The Eraser" Chung back there.

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He might cost even less now, since Miguel tweeted that a week ago

patsinthesnow said:

The question is, who will take advantage of it with QB play down in the league? I'd argue Big Ben/Luck/Bortles/Taylor are a better crop of QBs most teams have faced. The Packers WRs can barely get open without Nelson. That offense isn't elite anymore.

The composite QBR of the QBs we've faced is still in the 90s. There just aren't many great QBs with Brees/Manning in decline.

The Steelers worry me offensively. That's about it. Fitztragic and Luck threw 0 picks and we still won both games. Doubt that happens again.

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It's not about the regular season. It's about the playoffs, where it's one and done.

patsinthesnow said:

Do you want a lower level vet trade for depth or a big trade for a CB1?

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This wasn't directed at me, but I'd be fine with a guy like Rashean Mathis

TBR said:

He might cost even less now, since Miguel tweeted that a week ago

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Sorry if I am being dense, but if the cap hit is 2.75 for the rest of the year, I don't think we can afford that. BB usually leaves much more room than we currently have for in season signings. We still have 10+ games remaining with injury potential.

Mack Herron said:

Sorry if I am being dense, but if the cap hit is 2.75 for the rest of the year, I don't think we can afford that. BB usually leaves much more room than we currently have for in season signings. We still have 10+ games remaining with injury potential.

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You're absolutely correct. If the Pats acquired him a week from today, Miguel's tweet implies he would cost around 2.25m in cap hit. That would leave the team with under $1m in cap space which would devastate them if someone else goes on IR. So I would be very surprised if we traded for him, ignoring the sound argument of why Reid would want to trade him to begin with.

I think we're going with what we got and other off-the-street like pickups for CB the rest of the year. To Deus' point though, it's possible we can get to the SB without playing a real QB though, and possibly not facing one there either depending on how the NFC plays out.

patsinthesnow said:

Do you want a lower level vet trade for depth or a big trade for a CB1?

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In a perfect world, I want a vet CB1. That would be optimal as we don't know what Malcolm will be at the end of the year (hes fine now but certainly not a shutdown CB) Ryan, Coleman and even Melvin are serviceable and I like them- but not rock stars.

They'll go 14-2 13-3 etc. in the regular season but one matchup vs a good QB and two kick ass WRs w/ a running game (see Pitt) would be a real tough one. We also saw two CBs in the SB get killed.

I just don't like the "we have a pass rush we're fine" narrative. What if the pass rush goes away vs a kick ass o-line.

Need to win different ways and having a CB1 would enable that goal.

Brady is playing better than he ever has and I don't want to see yet another post season wasted because the defense can't get off the field on 3rd downs.

VectorPrime said:

Brady is playing better than he ever has and I don't want to see yet another post season wasted because the defense can't get off the field on 3rd downs.

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Agreed, the $2M cap hit is relatively trivial - I'm not a "cap is crap" guy but they can easily get $2M turning salary into bonus. For the right player/compensation package it would get done.

VectorPrime said:

Brady is playing better than he ever has and I don't want to see yet another post season wasted because the defense can't get off the field on 3rd downs.

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Defense had a bad day on 3rd down yesterday, but before Sunday they allowed 40% 3rd down conversion rate, which is identical to last year. Even after Sunday's game it's currently 43%. Not a huge drop off from last season.

FourierSeries said:

Defense had a bad day on 3rd down yesterday, but before Sunday they allowed 40% 3rd down conversion rate, which is identical to last year. Even after Sunday's game it's currently 43%. Not a huge drop off from last season.

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And your use of those stats show how important context is.

BelichickFan said:

Agreed, the $2M cap hit is relatively trivial - I'm not a "cap is crap" guy but they can easily get $2M turning salary into bonus. For the right player/compensation package it would get done.

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Far more likely that the Pats ask old team to pay player a signing bonus in return for player lowering salary. Pats would probably have to give up a better draft pick in return.

Please note that if Pats trade/waive a player to make room for new cornerback that will create cap space. Please also note that if Pats trade/waive player(s) to make return for returning Stork, Chris Jones, and/or Dane Fletcher those moves will also create cap space.

Deus Irae said:

And your use of those stats show how important context is.

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True, context is very important. This year we're 6-0 as opposed to 4-2. We've gotten off to a much faster start on both sides of the ball than we did last year, and a large portion of the stats opposing offenses have accumulated have come after we broke 99% win probability.

FourierSeries said:

True, context is very important. This year we're 6-0 as opposed to 4-2. We've gotten off to a much faster start on both sides of the ball than we did last year, and most of the stats opposing offenses have accumulated have come after we broke 99% win probability.

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Last year, the team's starting CB2 was suspended for 4 games, and it was the first 4 games, and he took time after that to get up to speed.
Last year, the team faced a much better slate of opposing QBs.

When analysis ignores critical facts like that, it makes the analysis worse than useless. It makes them misleading.

Go look at a simple stat difference from games 1-6 and games 7-16: defensive PPG.

21.5 v. 18.4

And that's despite playing better offenses, and QBs, after week 6.

Deus Irae said:

Last year, the team's starting CB2 was suspended for 4 games, and it was the first 4 games, and he took time after that to get up to speed.
Last year, the team faced a much better slate of opposing QBs.

When analysis ignores critical facts like that, it makes the analysis worse than useless. It makes them misleading.

Go look at a simple stat difference from games 1-6 and games 7-16: defensive PPG.

21.5 v. 18.4

And that's despite playing better offenses, and QBs, after week 6.

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We didn't play a much better slate of QBs.

Rodgers is better than any QB we will face this year in the regular season, that is true.

Other than that:

Peyton Manning's decline started the week we played Denver. He was never the same after that, and the stats show it (with the exception of beating up on a winless Raiders team.)

2015 Big Ben > 2014 Phillip Rivers

Blake Bortles is having a solid season so far. Better than Stafford did last year.

Tyrod Taylor has been better than Kyle Orton.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has been better than Geno Smith.

Jay Cutler was a complete disaster last year.

We held Andrew Luck to the same amount of points this season as we did last season.

Then we got to the playoffs and Joe Flacco shredded our defense at will. Same could happen this year if we face Big Ben, but I am more than confident that Brady can win in a shootout vs Big Ben in Foxboro.

FourierSeries said:

We didn't play a much better slate of QBs.

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Yes, they did, and you denying it makes this discussion a waste of time. If you can't acknowledge something that obvious, you can't be an honest discussion partner.

Deus Irae said:

Yes, they did, and you denying it makes this discussion a waste of time. If you can't acknowledge something that obvious, you can't be an honest discussion partner.

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No, they didn't. As was just pointed out to you.

The only truly good quarterbacks we played last year were

• Peyton in Week 9 (and he had begun to decline by that time)
• Luck in Week 11
• Rodgers in Week 13
• Rivers in Week 14.

Every other QB was mediocre at best, a dumpster fire at worst. Again, this based on how those QB's finished 2014, not this year. (2015 Andy Dalton is playing out of his mind and 2015 Tannehill is slightly improved.)

Here's the schedule for anyone that needs a refresher.

New England Patriots 2014 Regular Season Schedule - NFL.com