39 of Pats' 103 points allowed have come in 4th quarter with >99% win probability

(he clarifies a little later that his count was off by 1)

Just some perspective to help explain exactly how much the point total is the result of the Pats allowing back door covers after the game's effectively won.

That's surprising. The only truly meaningless garbage time points I remember were the Steelers last TD and the Jags last TD. The Bills had a very legit shot at winning after their last score and the Cowboys' last score made it 20-6 in the 3rd quarter.

Great stuff!

These are such insightful numbers... I'm surprised they didn't come from PFF.

Bills and Colts late touchdowns weren't garbage if they were included. Remember Patriots beating the Browns only two years ago off a late inside kick?

I'm sure Belichick isn't impressed by that number as we are

Put me in the "60 minutes/Finish Strong" category

Chiuba E. Obele said:

I'm sure Belichick isn't impressed by that number as we are

Put me in the "60 minutes/Finish Strong" category

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If he's not impressed by the numbers then he can tell his DC to put prevent away and never find it again.

Concussion Protocol said:

That's surprising. The only truly meaningless garbage time points I remember were the Steelers last TD and the Jags last TD. The Bills had a very legit shot at winning after their last score and the Cowboys' last score made it 20-6 in the 3rd quarter.

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Hell the Dolts game was hung in the balance until Gronk grabbed in the onside kick.

robertweathers said:

Hell the Dolts game was hung in the balance until Gronk grabbed in the onside kick.

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Ya, the Colts' chances were slim, but 1% seems a bit low. If they recovered that onside kick we all would've thrown up in our mouths a little.

I think it's still significant even thought we all have different definitions on garbage time. If he used the same metric of >99% win probability, I'll allow it

Concussion Protocol said:

Ya, the Colts' chances were slim, but 1% seems a bit low. If they recovered that onside kick we all would've thrown up in our mouths a little.

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Exactly. Pats certainly controlled the game but weirder stuff has happened.

A Defiant Goose said:

I think it's still significant even thought we all have different definitions on garbage time. If he used the same metric of >99% win probability, I'll allow it

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I think the problem is the measure is AFTER they hit 99%, not DURING, meaning once the games get closer again, the points still count as "garbage time" just because it used to be a blowout. I'm pretty sure by this measure, the Colts entire comeback on KC in the playoffs 2 years ago was in "garbage time".

BradyFTW! said:

(he clarifies a little later that his count was off by 1)

Just some perspective to help explain exactly how much the point total is the result of the Pats allowing back door covers after the game's effectively won.

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Finally! I've been praying someone might simply mention (never mind back it up with some hard data) this painfully obvious yet incredulously ignored statistic for several seasons now.

Elijah said:

I think the problem is the measure is AFTER they hit 99%, not DURING, meaning once the games get closer again, the points still count as "garbage time" just because it used to be a blowout. I'm pretty sure by this measure, the Colts entire comeback on KC in the playoffs 2 years ago was in "garbage time".

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I see, that makes sense. Yea, at some point it's no longer garbage time I agree. Sure didn't feel like garbage time in Buffalo when they started closing the gap

Elijah said:

I think the problem is the measure is AFTER they hit 99%, not DURING, meaning once the games get closer again, the points still count as "garbage time" just because it used to be a blowout. I'm pretty sure by this measure, the Colts entire comeback on KC in the playoffs 2 years ago was in "garbage time".

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That started in the 2nd quarter.

Froob said:

Bills and Colts late touchdowns weren't garbage if they were included. Remember Patriots beating the Browns only two years ago off a late inside kick?

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Indy TD is definitely included because at that point their win probability was less than 1%. Recovering an onside kick is extremely unlikely.

TommyD4207 said:

That started in the 2nd quarter.

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That's my point. The "winning probability" was something like 99% in the second quarter, so by the logic of the topic of this thread, over half of the game was garbage time.