IND's extra rest and why I wouldn't bet blowout

Not hearing too much about this.

Against common wisdom, I think IND's mostly overlooked extra 3 day's rest will keep this game tighter than anticipated. Both from a pure physical restfulness and the mercurial game preparation standpoint it's a pretty big advantage for a team with extra days off in these situations. Also don't forget, IND gets that advantage on top of playing a back-to-back time zone travelling slightly banged up NE team as well.

When the schedule came out I thought this game might be tougher than the simplistic "Oh boy, chalk up a blowout! Pats gonna get even with these snitches and break some scoring records doing it!" mantra we kept hearing all off-season and until now. And a convenient scheduling quirk for IND, no? The conspiracy theorist in me thinks the NFL set it up on purpose, shuffling a few games around, just to give IND an added bit of extra help... but that could be a whole other topic.

Anyway, hope NE can overcome, cuz -I- sure as heck wanna see a blowout and put some stitches in those snitches. But if they struggle a bit early, this could very well be the reason.

But what does it all mean you ask? Simple really...

IT'S A TRAP!!!!
dummies.

(Also going to bet IND to cover -not win, calm down- and the under). First half at least.

Mods: Feel free to merge.

not likely

Lots of people who are actually betting money disagree with you.

FourierSeries said:

Lots of people who are actually betting money disagree with you.

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While true, the general betting public have proven to be a bunch of dumbasses, certainly providing no advantage when following the popular money against the spread.

As a matter of fact, if you bet against the public money, you increase your odds of winning to approx. 58%.

2 tips Sharp NFL bettors don’t want you to know

That and Indy had ONE receiver to cover against Houston and couldn't do it.

pdangle said:

Not hearing too much about this.

Against common wisdom, I think IND's mostly overlooked extra 3 day's rest will keep this game tighter than anticipated. Both from a pure physical restfulness and the mercurial game preparation standpoint it's a pretty big advantage for a team with extra days off in these situations. Also don't forget, IND gets that advantage on top of playing a back-to-back time zone travelling slightly banged up NE team as well.

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As someone who has bet against us (just versus the spread, of course) in certain situations plenty of times, I can respect your wanting to take the home underdog +10 with an extra three days of rest.

Prior to the Pats covering a double digit spread vs. JAX (at home), they weren't doing too well vs. the spread in those double digit favorite matchups. As a matter of fact, they were doing quite the opposite. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I want to say that we heard a lot about it during the JAX week, and that it was something like covering only 2 of their past 11 games of double digit favorites.

Ultimately, I probably won't be doing anything on this game, because I just don't like giving that many points on the road under any circumstance. I'll give a FG on the road, and that's it. If the line is -4, I'll buy a point to take it down to a FG, but it's got to be close to -3.

I also don't feel particularly comfortable about taking IND +10 either, although one could argue that a 2 team/7 point teaser would take it up to IND +17, and that would have some value. Of course, as you know, you have to hit on the other end of it as well, which presents a challenge in and of itself.

supafly said:

While true, the general betting public have proven to be a bunch of dumbasses, certainly providing no advantage when following the popular money against the spread.

As a matter of fact, if you bet against the public money, you increase your odds of winning to approx. 58%.

2 tips Sharp NFL bettors don’t want you to know

Click to expand...

Great read, thanks Sup.
I still wouldn't touch the unconventional wisdom and bet on this one, the Colts. Consider:

2015 Patriots have scored less than 30 once: 28 against Pitt
2015 Indy has scored 28 or more once: 33 against Tenn.
2015 Indy losses point differential: 13, 13 against staistically inferior offenses to the Patriots.
2015 Indy losses versus 3-2 and 3-1 teams.
2015 Indy last 3 wins versus a 1-3 team, a 1-4 team and a 1-4 team.
2015 Indy point differential in wins against the 1 win competition: 7, 3 and 2.
Luck Era:
Patriots average score in the last 3 against Luck/Indy: (I believe it is 43)
Indy's average score in the last 3: (I believe it is 16)
Score differential in the last 3: 21, 22 and 38

There are quite a lot of stats and trends that say the Patriots will beat them by somewhere between 20 to 30 or more. To be perfectly honest the line right now suggests a final score that would be an aberration for the Luck era. And this year, statistically speaking, is the worst team of the Luck era suggesting a higher side of the point differential norm.

Betting is inherently risky due to unforeseen circumstances or unmeasurable metrics that cannot be calculated into the betting decision (maybe easier for me to say 'any given Sunday' ). With that important caveat aside (I definitely don't want this to seem like a 100% certainty), the Patriots appear to be a heavier likelihood to cover the spread than anything I have seen this season. IMHO a bet on the Patriots covering a 7.5 spread versus Indy is approaching a relatively stark deviation from 50/50.

Goodell is trying his weasley best to fix this game. Yesterday he pulled an assistant ref in Corrente's crew and replaced him with one of his "fixers". Just like last week and Blakeman's ridiculous penalty calls in the 1st quarter. I am writing this and posting it so it will be here for posterity and hopefully, proof that fans KNEW this scumbag Goodell was a dirty corporate criminal engaged in federal crimes with seeming impunity.

This isn't about betting per se, it's about expected and/or anticipated performance versus actual. This is more that the entire IND team (not just a receiver, a missing receiver, a QB or a DL or such), all 50+ players at about ~107% (just a guess, +3 days rest) effective compared to an average 7 day rest schedule, vs NE which will be about at ~98% (due to b2b travel). [These % numbers are just estimates for an example] Add another +10% for the home advantage. NE is hurt, lost LT, lost CB, a ginger MLB, so they get addl -5%. All positions that no one follows, not really factored into the line. IND QB situation, we all know about that. Motivation for both teams are equal if you think about it. IND also having 3 days extra to game-plan.

Put any equivalent strength rested Team A, and Team B in this situation, ignore any hype, which one has the advantage? But wait, now I say Team B, really, really.... really, I mean really wants to win this game, does that affect the underlying fundamentals?

So I think we see a stronger effort than expected by IND early. Once any initial "jump" dies out, you'll see both teams play closer to normal home vs. away NE vs IND levels. We will see.

TheBostonStraggler said:

Great read, thanks Sup.
I still wouldn't touch the unconventional wisdom and bet on this one, the Colts. Consider:

2015 Patriots have scored less than 30 once: 28 against Pitt
2015 Indy has scored 28 or more once: 33 against Tenn.
2015 Indy losses point differential: 13, 13 against staistically inferior offenses to the Patriots.
2015 Indy losses versus 3-2 and 3-1 teams.
2015 Indy last 3 wins versus a 1-3 team, a 1-4 team and a 1-4 team.
2015 Indy point differential in wins against the 1 win competition: 7, 3 and 2.
Luck Era:
Patriots average score in the last 3 against Luck/Indy: (I believe it is 43)
Indy's average score in the last 3: (I believe it is 16)
Score differential in the last 3: 21, 22 and 38

There are quite a lot of stats and trends that say the Patriots will beat them by somewhere between 20 to 30 or more. To be perfectly honest the line right now suggests a final score that would be an aberration for the Luck era. And this year, statistically speaking, is the worst team of the Luck era suggesting a higher side of the point differential norm.

Betting is inherently risky due to unforeseen circumstances or unmeasurable metrics that cannot be calculated into the betting decision (maybe easier for me to say 'any given Sunday' ). With that important caveat aside (I definitely don't want this to seem like a 100% certainty), the Patriots appear to be a heavier likelihood to cover the spread than anything I have seen this season. IMHO a bet on the Patriots covering a 7.5 spread versus Indy is approaching a relatively stark deviation from 50/50.

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Lots of valid reasons that point to a double digit victory (line is up to -10 in many books, and may go up another .5 or whole point by kickoff).

My main concerns would be the recent negative trends regarding our record in: 1) back to back road games, where we've only won both twice in the past nine attempts, and 2) the poor record vs. the spread when giving -10 plus points, which I believe is now up to 3-9 in the past 12 situations, after the JAX game at home in week #3.

Overall, I don't dispute what you're saying in the least. I will simply try and find another game or two where there may be better value--or so I like to think

Don't overthink - just pound it.

I respect the OPs position and would caution everyone this: there is no such thing as easy money when you bet against the spread in Vegas. Even with all the ease we've had with Indy, the score will begin at 0-0 and against any team, we are a couple of turnovers/stalled red zone drives from a dog fight.

That being said, a few extra days rest had been proven statistically to mean very little. It is one of those things where, when a team gets blown out on short rest, it is cited as a reason, but with a bigger sample size you realize it is a coincidence and not a cause.

No guts -- No glory.

Bet NE--- bet them big.

Candy from a baby.

NE covers and will surpass the "over" on their own.

Joker said:

Goodell is trying his weasley best to fix this game. Yesterday he pulled an assistant ref in Corrente's crew and replaced him with one of his "fixers". Just like last week and Blakeman's ridiculous penalty calls in the 1st quarter. I am writing this and posting it so it will be here for posterity and hopefully, proof that fans KNEW this scumbag Goodell was a dirty corporate criminal engaged in federal crimes with seeming impunity.

Click to expand...

This is the part that will eventually force me to abandon the NFL. How can I continue to support a sport in which the administrator of the league is trying to fix games, and the owner of the team I root for has chosen to stand with him over the team?

supafly said:

As someone who has bet against us (just versus the spread, of course) in certain situations plenty of times, I can respect your wanting to take the home underdog +10 with an extra three days of rest.

Prior to the Pats covering a double digit spread vs. JAX (at home), they weren't doing too well vs. the spread in those double digit favorite matchups. As a matter of fact, they were doing quite the opposite. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I want to say that we heard a lot about it during the JAX week, and that it was something like covering only 2 of their past 11 games of double digit favorites.

Ultimately, I probably won't be doing anything on this game, because I just don't like giving that many points on the road under any circumstance. I'll give a FG on the road, and that's it. If the line is -4, I'll buy a point to take it down to a FG, but it's got to be close to -3.

I also don't feel particularly comfortable about taking IND +10 either, although one could argue that a 2 team/7 point teaser would take it up to IND +17, and that would have some value. Of course, as you know, you have to hit on the other end of it as well, which presents a challenge in and of itself.

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I agree, I felt very confident that the pats would blow out the cowboys last week because, weeden. However, I just can't get myself to lay that many points on the road considering the circumstances. This is the second road game in a row for the pats. Indy is on extra rest. They have a qb that is more than capable of shredding a defense... And I still don't trust our secondary yet. I'm avoiding this game. That being said I do think the pats will win and perhaps even in blowout fashion. Just not willing to bet money on it.

supafly said:

While true, the general betting public have proven to be a bunch of dumbasses, certainly providing no advantage when following the popular money against the spread.

As a matter of fact, if you bet against the public money, you increase your odds of winning to approx. 58%.

2 tips Sharp NFL bettors don’t want you to know

Click to expand...

This will likely be one of those times the sharps are in agreement with the public. The score was 45-7 the last time the two teams met and the gap has probably widened since then, as opposed to decreased.

Patriots start to the Cowboys game would disagree with the extra rest narrative.

David J. Chao, MD @ProFootballDoc
DION LEWIS @Patriots questionable/LP with abdominal injury. Core muscle (rectus, oblique), may be difficult to play through.


All you Fantasy Geeks, pick up Brandon Bolden on the cheap and watch him get 200yds and 3 TDs!!!!!

shmessy said:

David J. Chao, MD @ProFootballDoc
DION LEWIS @Patriots questionable/LP with abdominal injury. Core muscle (rectus, oblique), may be difficult to play through.


All you Fantasy Geeks, pick up Brandon Bolden on the cheap and watch him get 200yds and 3 TDs!!!!!

Click to expand...

I wonder if this injury just happened yesterday , I didn't hear about him being on the injured list all week!!

It will be like if Baylor were playing Sam Houston State.