DraftKings/FanDuel

XLIX said:

I looked at those leagues but quite honestly, I found the juice on those sits to be ridiculous.

In order to break even on sports gambling, you need to pick accurately 52.4% of the time (assuming you are playing the general bet $11 to win $10). In order to break even on those Fantasy sites, you need to win something like 60% of your games (if you are in a 50/50 league). It is a ridiculous number.
I agree, but I think society's opinions have pretty much shifted. There is more movement to legalize sports betting in the U.S. (outside Nevada). The problem is the leagues (especially the NFL) do everything they can to prevent that, including taking people to court who try to get it legalized.

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This is actually not accurate. When you play against vegas you are playing against the house which creates lines that ideally create a 50/50 split. They are so good at this that it is hard to beat their expertise. when you play on fanduel and draftkings..you are playing other people a large portion of which are newbies.. Dead money.. And homers. I agree there are people who do it for a living on there too but you would be shocked how much dead money and people who just throw together a line up are on there.

Bledsoehasaring said:

This is actually not accurate. When you play against vegas you are playing against the house which creates lines that ideally create a 50/50 split. They are so good at this that it is hard to beat their expertise. when you play on fanduel and draftkings..you are playing other people a large portion of which are newbies.. Dead money.. And homers. I agree there are people who do it for a living on there too but you would be shocked how much dead money and people who just throw together a line up are on there.

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Last I knew of Vegas, they asked for odds either way. They hoped they'd win as many bets as they lost, but they actually gave a couple of percentage points back because the bettors were, overall, "smart".

That said, most of this comes from a conversation with an MGM Grand executive ~20 years ago, and the rest is as old or older as well.

Bledsoehasaring said:

This is actually not accurate. When you play against vegas you are playing against the house which creates lines that ideally create a 50/50 split. They are so good at this that it is hard to beat their expertise.

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You contradict yourself here. You're right that the Vegas books are creating a line with the goal of having a 50/50 split on wagering for each side in a particular game. Therefore you are not playing against the house. Like DFS's, you are playing against other players. The house is just the middle-man.

If you are a smarter gambler than the average player, you will win in the long run. Plus there's also an element of luck (like DFS's) when it comes to random things like a last second Hail Mary to cover the spread or whatever.

Here is an absolutely great article on how the odds are stacked up against the average joe. Combine this with inside information that employees have on the percentages of which players are owned by whom, I don't know why anyone would waste their time.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...h-to-win-money-playing-daily-fantasy-football


Bet the lines. Your chances are better

I just laugh at their commercials. Yes, everyone wins!!! There is no downside!!! Free cash!!!

lurker1965 said:

I just laugh at their commercials. Yes, everyone wins!!! There is no downside!!! Free cash!!!

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Just wait just a second......you mean it ISN'T??????

XLIX said:

If you are a sufficiently smarter gambler than the average player, you will win in the long run.

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I added a word to make that accurate, and it's an important one.

captain stone said:

Fantasy Football = football for those (pink hats or others) who are too lazy or too ignorant to watch the real game.

Never played any FF, never will.

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It's anti football. Teams constructed like fantasy football are the least likely to succeed. what wins is consistency across the roster and Good O and D lines.

Do people think FF is a video game?

Rock and roll music and color TV is ruining the game of football.

Get off my lawn.

fumbrunner said:

Here is an absolutely great article on how the odds are stacked up against the average joe. Combine this with inside information that employees have on the percentages of which players are owned by whom, I don't know why anyone would waste their time.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...h-to-win-money-playing-daily-fantasy-football


Bet the lines. Your chances are better

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The sharps or experts are submitting hundreds, sometimes thousands of entries. Just look at some of the top 25 boards where you see the same name many times.

Yes, they are certainly taking out the average Joes here, and while I enjoy season long leagues and conservative and consistent $50 dollar wagers on (some of) the games, daily fantasy sports seem like the lowest odds of the three scenarios.

RayClay said:

It's anti football. Teams constructed like fantasy football are the least likely to succeed. what wins is consistency across the roster and Good O and D lines.

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You may be confused a bit in this case, RC.

Fantasy football is simply a game or contest played amongst fans which allows you to choose or draft a select number of players, mainly at the skill positions. For example, if Brady is my QB and Julio Jones is my WR1, I would get a good number of points every week and they would likely represent my two strongest players.

Your opponent(s) also choose via salary cap or draft their specific players and after the Monday night game you see who has more points.

I think you are referring to a popular phrase that has been used when describing the way that certain GMs or HCs build their actual NFL rosters. For example Ryan Grigson's decision to take yet another offensive weapon WR in round one, when he likely should've focused on the trenches, as you mention in your comment.

venecol said:

There's a sucker born every day.

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Just like the casinos, the people that can least afford to lose money are gambling away believing that they can strike it rich.

supafly said:

You may be confused a bit in this case, RC.

Fantasy football is simply a game or contest played amongst fans which allows you to choose or draft a select number of players, mainly at the skill positions. For example, if Brady is my QB and Julio Jones is my WR1, I would get a good number of points every week and they would likely represent my two strongest players.

Your opponent(s) also choose via salary cap or draft their specific players and after the Monday night game you see who has more points.

I think you are referring to a popular phrase that has been used when describing the way that certain GMs or HCs build their actual NFL rosters. For example Ryan Grigson's decision to take yet another offensive weapon WR in round one, when he likely should've focused on the trenches, as you mention in your comment.

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I'm talking about FF in general, not this bastardized gambling version of it. teams that spend too much money on wide receivers and running backs have no money left over for other positions, more important ones, in my opinion [if you believe BB knows how to draft].

Therefore, teams that draft as if they were drafting for fantasy football [which only emphasizes those positions [there aren't enough good qbs tyo go around, so that's inconsequential] are losers.

That's why winning in fantasy football is pretty much the opposite of winning in real football IMO. It means you have one wr putting up tons of numbers and likely taking up tons of cap space that should have been spent on the best D linemen, CBs and such. Mind you, I don't know much about FF, I have no interest, but stats are for losers in the real game as a sage once said.

It doesn't matter, season long FF is a separate game, like monopoly or something. It's the short term gambling game with lots of money that is a problem for a league that used to worry about any gambling ties.

RayClay said:

I'm talking about FF in general, not this bastardized gambling version of it. teams that spend too much money on wide receivers and running backs have no money left over for other positions, more important ones, in my opinion [if you believe BB knows how to draft].

Therefore, teams that draft as if they were drafting for fantasy football [which only emphasizes those positions [there aren't enough good qbs tyo go around, so that's inconsequential] are losers.

That's why winning in fantasy football is pretty much the opposite of winning in real football IMO. It means you have one wr putting up tons of numbers and likely taking up tons of cap space that should have been spent on the best D linemen, CBs and such. Mind you, I don't know much about FF, I have no interest, but stats are for losers in the real game as a sage once said.

It doesn't matter, season long FF is a separate game, like monopoly or something. It's the short term gambling game with lots of money that is a problem for a league that used to worry about any gambling ties.

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Agreed, and that's why I included the reference to the HCs or GMs building their teams like that, since that's what I assumed you meant.

I simply wanted to clarify the stance, since we were talking about the "game" itself, and not necessarily the full team building philosophy for real NFL personnel.

supafly said:

Agreed, and that's why I included the reference to the HCs or GMs building their teams like that, since that's what I assumed you meant.

I simply wanted to clarify the stance, since we were talking about the "game" itself, and not necessarily the full team building philosophy for real NFL personnel.

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What i object to is this new "instant" payoff game. If that's true, then the entire NFL is being used by gamblers. Crappy teams with no hope can still makle people money depending on who they choose to play and sit.

To say this is dangerous is an understatement.

RayClay said:

What i object to is this new "instant" payoff game. If that's true, then the entire NFL is being used by gamblers. Crappy teams with no hope can still makle people money depending on who they choose to play and sit.

To say this is dangerous is an understatement.

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Yep, the NFL seems to have decided this type of gambling is "safe" because nobody has a direct financial interest in the outcome of games, and their bets have to be spread out among multiple players on different teams.

The problem is that it makes the status of individual players MORE financially salient in a way that daily injury reports are woefully inadequate to address. For instance, I think Chuck Pagano should have been penalized for declaring "supreme confidence" that Andrew Luck would play against Jacksonville. That's now a market-moving statement.

patchick said:

Yep, the NFL seems to have decided this type of gambling is "safe" because nobody has a direct financial interest in the outcome of games, and their bets have to be spread out among multiple players on different teams.

The problem is that it makes the status of individual players MORE financially salient in a way that daily injury reports are woefully inadequate to address. For instance, I think Chuck Pagano should have been penalized for declaring "supreme confidence" that Andrew Luck would play against Jacksonville. That's now a market-moving statement.

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And teams and players that are out of it are fair game for friendly sources who just want to know if that top WR is going to play [because the unknown backup will catch passes from a team that needs to pass[see reche caldwell, who coincidentally was corrupt]].

this is why you have a commissioner. I really suspect Goodell of anything corrupt until proven otherwise.

RayClay said:

What i object to is this new "instant" payoff game. If that's true, then the entire NFL is being used by gamblers. Crappy teams with no hope can still makle people money depending on who they choose to play and sit.

To say this is dangerous is an understatement.

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I believe that the NFL actually lobbied for fantasy football to have more widespread use and advertising at one point. As you state, it allows (or even "forces") people to watch every single game now, and also increases the desire for services such as the Red Zone Channel, NFL Network, Sunday Ticket, etc.

It's basically what gamblers have been doing for years in terms of following crappy games that no one would normally give a damn about, but now it's simply more accepted since it's being touted as "fun," and just a "game" providing entertainment value.

For the record, there are some states like Montana which ban these daily fantasy sites.

Im probably the minority here by the looks of the responses of this thread, but I enjoy playing draftkings. Like any money decision you make you try to be smart about it majority of people always want to win big and that's where they lose a lot of money. I only play the 3 dollar- 5 dollar games and usually I break even or I profit from it if I have a spare 20 bucks lying around I play the 7 million challenge which I never win anything there. Just do what the Patriots do typically with trades invest in low risk/high reward games that's just my advice and opinion.