2015 NFL Office Pool Picker / Spread Calculator

PatsFanSince74 said:

8--7. The result of a lot of work and no doubt better than I would have done sticking my finger in the air, but a reminder of how hard it is to pick based on the spread in an NFL game...for amateurs or professionals. A tough way to make a living, methinks.

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mgcolby said:

I did this two years ago and it went well. The old thread is linked below, if you want to get a feel for what it is. Basically this a system I have worked on over the past several years that has done surprisingly well. In 2013 it went 106-80-7 ATS 119 - 75 Straight Up.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/threads/office-pool-picker.1058181/page-3

So it is back. What is it? It is a score predictor, all scores are predicted on a combination of stats from the last 4 games played by each team. Which is why I toss it out around week 5. I actually cheat a bit and start using it week 4 but I don't count that in the season record good or bad. I will post last weeks results and then this weeks predictions. I do enter a spread, this year I am using the opening line shown on thespread.com. I do not shop the points to gain an edge etc...I use the opening line and stick with it for consistancy. Fellow window shoppers would probably do better by finding better lines.

What the predictor does not account for directly: Injuries, Weather, Turnovers, Coaching staff changes, referees, referees that know the batted ball rule etc.... It solely looks at a subset of stats from each team's last 4 games played. In an indirect way it will account for all of those things, well maybe not the refs but...

Any way if you have any questions feel free to ask.

Week 4 final to give you an idea, went 9-6 ATS with only 3 games of data.

How this works:
Predicted Score = Predicted score for each team
Predicted Spread = Difference between the two predicted scores

View attachment 10770

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mgcolby said:

I did this two years ago and it went well. The old thread is linked below, if you want to get a feel for what it is. Basically this a system I have worked on over the past several years that has done surprisingly well. In 2013 it went 106-80-7 ATS 119 - 75 Straight Up.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/threads/office-pool-picker.1058181/page-3

So it is back. What is it? It is a score predictor, all scores are predicted on a combination of stats from the last 4 games played by each team. Which is why I toss it out around week 5. I actually cheat a bit and start using it week 4 but I don't count that in the season record good or bad. I will post last weeks results and then this weeks predictions. I do enter a spread, this year I am using the opening line shown on thespread.com. I do not shop the points to gain an edge etc...I use the opening line and stick with it for consistancy. Fellow window shoppers would probably do better by finding better lines.

What the predictor does not account for directly: Injuries, Weather, Turnovers, Coaching staff changes, referees, referees that know the batted ball rule etc.... It solely looks at a subset of stats from each team's last 4 games played. In an indirect way it will account for all of those things, well maybe not the refs but...

Any way if you have any questions feel free to ask.

Week 4 final to give you an idea, went 9-6 ATS with only 3 games of data.

How this works:
Predicted Score = Predicted score for each team
Predicted Spread = Difference between the two predicted scores

View attachment 10770

Click to expand...

1960Pats said:

There have been 63 games played in 4 weeks and there were only 7 games that were won by the favorite without covering. Here's the complete breakdown so far;
Favorite won and covered - 32
Won by underdog - 23
Favorite won and didn't cover - 7
Tied spread - 1

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PatsFanSince74 said:

Thanks!
So, if I read that correctly, if you picked the favorite to cover its 32--30--1 (push). Mathematically almost identical to the OP's 8--7.

Still, a tough way to make money, but I guess if one spends a lot of time figuring out how to arbitrage one's bets every week, I guess a smart player might be able to end up ahead...or not.

I think I'll stick to betting my buddies a beer straight up whenever the Pats play.

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1960Pats said:

One of my nearest and dearest friends is a bookie and has told me that most of the substantial income he makes he makes from football. I stopped betting a long time ago but I still enjoy tinkering with the numbers.

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mgcolby said:

Seattle opened late after being off for a a couple of days at 3 point favorites. Ended up being a push.

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Joker said:

keep playing with fire and I'll be calling you "Supabroke"

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supafly said:

Seattle was a +3 point dog this week, you mean. You had it correct in a few posts above and likely just mistyped. I know this too well b/c I had the SOBs and was up 20 points (if you include the +3 when they were winning 24-7).

As you know, I ended up pushing when they allowed CIN to come back and win the game. Pathetic.

Other than that, all I did for the day was a two team, 7 point teaser, bringing both the Green Bay and New England games down to -2 each. Seemed like a safe play.

Thanks for the analysis. I enjoy it every year. One possible "flaw" (not meaning to insult your hard work) may be a game like tomorrow's, where it doesn't necessarily take the Steelers' backup quarterback situation into account--or does it?

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