Stats Gripe: QB rating is for the birds

So I looked at the QB stats this morning:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/passingYards/year/2015/seasontype/2

Couldn't figure out how Aaron Rodgers has a higher rating.

Brady is at 9 TDs and Rodgers at 11 TDs with one more game. About even (in terms of TDs per game). If anything, Brady is a bit better at 3 TDs per game.

Comp. % is about even with AR at 72.4% and TB at 72.2%. And this is even with Brady throwing a much higher volume.

Brady is at 8.36 YPA while AR is at 8.06. Brady is much better here.

But where Brady really excels is his 371 YPG to ARs 249.

THAT'S HUGE!

Whatever QB rating is supposed to measure (efficiency I suppose) it really fails to tell us anything at all.

upstater1 said:

So I looked at the QB stats this morning:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/passingYards/year/2015/seasontype/2

Couldn't figure out how Aaron Rodgers has a higher rating.

Brady is at 9 TDs and Rodgers at 11 TDs with one more game. About even (in terms of TDs per game). If anything, Brady is a bit better at 3 TDs per game.

Comp. % is about even with AR at 72.4% and TB at 72.2%. And this is even with Brady throwing a much higher volume.

Brady is at 8.36 YPA while AR is at 8.06. Brady is much better here.

But where Brady really excels is his 371 YPG to ARs 249.

THAT'S HUGE!

Whatever QB rating is supposed to measure (efficiency I suppose) it really fails to tell us anything at all.

Click to expand...

IMO QB rating puts far too much emphasis on yards/pass.

Galeb said:

IMO QB rating puts far too much emphasis on yards/pass.

Click to expand...

Something is definitely wrong, but Brady is ahead of Rodgers on that stat. He has more yards per pass than Rodgers.

upstater1 said:

But where Brady really excels is his 371 YPG to ARs 249.

THAT'S HUGE!

Whatever QB rating is supposed to measure (efficiency I suppose) it really fails to tell us anything at all.

Click to expand...

The ratings system is certainly flawed, but this item doesn't bother me. IMO it makes sense to weigh efficiency/quality over quantity of throws.

QB rating and BSPN's Total QBR are attempts to try and statistically quantify how good a QB's play is.

Here is mine. It's a point system.

Wins as a Starter-6 points
Wins when tied or trailing in 4th Qtr-4 points
Touchdowns Scored By The Offense-3 (per TD) points
Team 1st Downs-2 (per 1st down) points
Interceptions/Turnovers- Minus 2 points

I could care less about TDs thrown, comp %, etc. Every offense is different. Every team is different.

If you don't throw picks, you make 1st downs, you get your team in the end zone, you score touchdowns, you lead your team to victory when it counts and consistently, you are a good QB.

robertweathers said:

QB rating and BSPN's Total QBR are attempts to try and statistically quantify how good a QB's play is.

Here is mine. It's a point system.

Wins as a Starter-6 points
Wins when tied or trailing in 4th Qtr-4 points
Touchdowns Scored By The Offense-3 (per TD) points
Team 1st Downs-2 (per 1st down) points
Interceptions/Turnovers- Minus 2 points

I could care less about TDs thrown, comp %, etc. Every offense is different. Every team is different.

If you don't throw picks, you make 1st downs, you get your team in the end zone, you score touchdowns, you lead your team to victory when it counts and consistently, you are a good QB.

Click to expand...

You should apply this to a few QBs careers and see how it turns out...

That's odd, I'd be interested to know how Rodgers comes out ahead in QB rating.

That said, I think QB rating is a pretty good measure of QB performance. It's not perfect, and there's no substitute for using your own eyes to evaluate QB play, but it generally gets it about right.

stats dont tell entire story.

e.g. you start at your own 1 yd line, your RB break its 98 yds, and then you throw a easy 1 yd td...you get rewarded for that vs you throw 98 yds and a lot of insane passes, and then your RB punches it in.

at the end of day, i think what should matter is pts/drive....with possibly less emphasis on clock killing drives (4th Q, up by say 10+), and more on the opposite. it'll never be exact.

Concussion Protocol said:

That's odd, I'd be interested to know how Rodgers comes out ahead in QB rating.

That said, I think QB rating is a pretty good measure of QB performance. It's not perfect, and there's no substitute for using your own eyes to evaluate QB play, but it generally gets it about right.

Click to expand...

because he has more TD per attempt which is heavily weighted in the equation. see my post above why thats not necessarily accurate (or wrong per say over or wrong over a long run).

stats who cares

robertweathers said:

Team 1st Downs-2 (per 1st down) points

Click to expand...

Why does it matter if it requires 6 first downs to take a team into the end zone or just 2 first downs to do the same?

Pats:

39.7 PPG (1st, would be first all time)
446.3 YPG (1st by 40 yards)

Packers:

28.3 PPG (6th)
373.3 YPG (10th)


Brady's leading a historic juggernaut offense, Rodgers is leading a solid unit. Rodgers having 11 TDs on an offense with less than 30 PPG is a joke.

I still maintain Brady/Rodgers are in different leagues.

patchick said:

The ratings system is certainly flawed, but this item doesn't bother me. IMO it makes sense to weigh efficiency/quality over quantity of throws.

Click to expand...

I was really referring to yardage per attempt though. So it's not quantity. IMO it's much harder to throw, throw, throw AND maintain efficiency.

In other words, Brady beats Rodgers not just on quantity but he's tied with him on completion % and well ahead of him on yards per pass (which is efficiency).

And that's much harder to do when you're throwing a lot.

I think the rating is flawed because of the way it values TDs thrown per pass. That's probably the real reason the stat is so skewed.

I remember a few years ago, maybe it was 2012??, when Brady threw 32 TDs while Rodgers threw for 39 TDs. Rodgers was considered the cinch for MVP though it was ultimately given to Adrian Petersen. Brady wasn't in the discussion. Behind the numbers though, Brady lead the Patriots to become the 3rd highest scoring offense in league history. Here was the big catch: the Patriots rushed for 26 TDs, 4 of them by Brady himself. The Green Bay Packers only had 7 rushing TDs. And the Patriots had all those rushing TDs despite having a mediocre running game to complement all the passing. In other words, the passing game regularly got the team inside the 5 yard line, and about half the time, the Patriots ran it in.

But that stat just skews perceptions.

I feel there should be separate (no fault) Interception stat for quarterbacks where the receiver was at fault (hit in the chest etc)

Who knows, maybe one for Missed Interceptions where the DB drops a catchable interception.

Brady lost a fumble, maybe that's why but I don't know if that is part of the equation.

here's a more quantitative approach to quartberback value :

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

bear in mind, nothing is accurate but they explain why DYAR/DVOA is different than QBR (a metric created by the ESPN Stats & Information group.)

patsinthesnow said:

Pats:

39.7 PPG (1st, would be first all time)
446.3 YPG (1st by 40 yards)

Packers:

28.3 PPG (6th)
373.3 YPG (10th)


Brady's leading a historic juggernaut offense, Rodgers is leading a solid unit. Rodgers having 11 TDs on an offense with less than 30 PPG is a joke.

I still maintain Brady/Rodgers are in different leagues.

Click to expand...

I think Rodgers is awesome. That said, Lambeau Rodgers has Direct TV and Road Rodgers has cable.

Brady on the road is as good as Brady at home. It's his D that doesn't travel well.

aluminum seats said:

You should apply this to a few QBs careers and see how it turns out...

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What I do know is that QBs who win, score TDs and don't turn the ball over will be high on the list.

Let Rodgers be the regular season MVP again, year after year, just like Peyton. I have seen this movie before.

He crapped the bed against the Seahawks, and crapped badly. I'll take the QB who after 2 picks, wasn't afraid to throw, got a pitchers mentality and erased those 2 picks by performing a 4th quarter for the ages against one of the best defenses in the history.

Concussion Protocol said:

Why does it matter if it requires 6 first downs to take a team into the end zone or just 2 first downs to do the same?

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Every offense is different. Some offenses are not quick strike. Some encourage a more methodical, high-percentage,approach.....like the Patriots.

robertweathers said:

Every offense is different. Some offenses are not quick strike. Some encourage a more methodical, high-percentage,approach.....like the Patriots.

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This is true, but I don't think it would be fair to award less points to Brady if he throws a 30-yard TD strike than if he completes a pass to the 20, another to the 10, and then throws the TD. In my mind, yardage is yardage unless the clock is a factor.

I do like your system BTW. Encompasses most of what I see as important QB measures.