A brief statistical overview of Belichick's "Bend Don't Break" and its success from 2001 to 2015

Soul_Survivor88 · Oct 2, 2015

Courtesy of Mike Dussault of patspropaganda.com. Great work Mike!

As he points out, Bend-Don't-Break has an obvious track record of success under Belichick's teams. My attitude however....."just because it works, doesn't mean it's fun to watch"

http://patspropaganda.com/post/130361476040/bill-belichicks-bend-dont-break-defense-in-one

Bill Belichick’s “Bend-Don’t-Break” Defense in One Simple Chart (2001-2015)

Much has been made over the years of Bill Belichick’s “Bend-Don’t-Break” philosophy on defense. Now it is an easy excuse when the defense gives up a ton of yards but still win the game because Tom Brady scored more points.

But as we can see this has always been Belichick’s philosophy, even going back to 2003 and 2004, years everyone remembers as the prime of defense in New England.

The chart above breaks down the Bend side, including yards-per-drive and plays-per-drive, and the Break side, including points-per-drive and turnovers-per-drive.

As you can see the Patriots are rarely in the top-10 for the yards (twice) and plays (three times) they give up every drive. But when it comes to the points and turnovers, they’re almost always in the top half of the league, and usually top five or ten.

Even last year’s over-romanticized defense gave up sustained drives but when it came to the red zone they closed the door.

This speaks to Belichick’s philosophy of playing disciplined but not over-aggressive defense. They might not get off the field as quickly as we all might like, but by forcing the offense to earn every yard, more often than not they get a stop or a turnover.

Zuma · Oct 2, 2015

I dig those stats. Thank you Chiuba "ERNIE" Obele !!!

EDIT: we need better CB's

Bobsyouruncle · Oct 2, 2015

Has he ever said its his philosophy? I always assumed he doesn't want to give up points or yards, but probably practices red zone plays more since they give up points.

miDeuce · Oct 2, 2015

Bobsyouruncle said:
Has he ever said its his philosophy? I always assumed he doesn't want to give up points or yards, but probably practices red zone plays more since they give up points.

Never explicitly, but when you look at these figures along with the general lack of interest in blitzing much it's certainly the picture that is painted.

Interception · Oct 2, 2015

Chiuba E. Obele said:
but by forcing the offense to earn every yard, more often than not they get a stop or a turnover.

How does this team force offenses to earn every yard any differently than other teams? Isn't that every teams goal on defense?

venecol · Oct 2, 2015

I think the 2015 numbers should be disregarded given that it's only for 3 games. As we play more games the pts/dr. number should go down, which is the only number that really matters. That is the point of the spreadsheet, good job. We need to stop giving up points in garbage time.

miDeuce · Oct 2, 2015

Interception said:
How does this team force offenses to earn every yard any differently than other teams? Isn't that every teams goal on defense?

I'd say being overly aggressive often gets you burned for big plays, i.e. unearned. Instead their philosophy is to be conservative, play within the defense, wrap up and tackle.

Zuma · Oct 2, 2015

venecol said:
I think the 2015 numbers should be disregarded given that it's only for 3 games. As we play more games the pts/dr. number should go down, which is the only number that really matters. That is the point of the spreadsheet, good job. We need to stop giving up points in garbage time.

Thats an interesting point. We have historically started slow in general IMO (however on offense were red hot early this year). I doubt their are similar numbers for the 1st 3 games...but would be interesting to see.

32.4 yards and 2.18 points per drive is not good.

Bobsyouruncle · Oct 2, 2015

Zuma said:
Thats an interesting point. We have historically started slow in general IMO (however on offense were red hot early this year). I doubt their are similar numbers for the 1st 3 games...but would be interesting to see.

32.4 yards and 2.18 points per drive is not good.

But we played the Bills, the Super Bowl favorite and team of the century. That throws the stats off.

Zuma · Oct 2, 2015

Bobsyouruncle said:
But we played the Bills, the Super Bowl favorite and team of the century. That throws the stats off.

And for one quarter we lost. The stats be all off now.

patfanken · Oct 2, 2015

The most remarkable stat from last year was the one that from about the last 10-12 games of the season, including the 3 playoff games, the Pats DID NOT allow a 4th quarter TD. Now, I'm not sure of the exact number of games, but it was significant and the deed was impressive.

Obviously it wasn't nearly as good over the first half or so of the season. But that's the kind of goal I'd like to see us aspire to this year. The longer the game goes on, the harder it should be to score TD's on us.

BTW- it should be remembered that the Pats were far from a shut down defense in the first half of the season. It was only after it took a while for the defense to mesh together did it start to accumulate that remarkable stat. And while we can always point out that Revis and Browner aren't here. I don't think were have the potential to be as good on the DL, LB, and S THIS year as we were last. So while we lost a great deal at CB, we've also gained a good deal at other areas.

Tony2046 · Oct 2, 2015

Chiuba E. Obele said:
Courtesy of Mike Dussault of patspropaganda.com. Great work Mike!

As he points out, Bend-Don't-Break has an obvious track record of success under Belichick's teams. My attitude however....."just because it works, doesn't mean it's fun to watch"

http://patspropaganda.com/post/130361476040/bill-belichicks-bend-dont-break-defense-in-one

Bill Belichick’s “Bend-Don’t-Break” Defense in One Simple Chart (2001-2015)

Much has been made over the years of Bill Belichick’s “Bend-Don’t-Break” philosophy on defense. Now it is an easy excuse when the defense gives up a ton of yards but still win the game because Tom Brady scored more points.

But as we can see this has always been Belichick’s philosophy, even going back to 2003 and 2004, years everyone remembers as the prime of defense in New England.

The chart above breaks down the Bend side, including yards-per-drive and plays-per-drive, and the Break side, including points-per-drive and turnovers-per-drive.

As you can see the Patriots are rarely in the top-10 for the yards (twice) and plays (three times) they give up every drive. But when it comes to the points and turnovers, they’re almost always in the top half of the league, and usually top five or ten.

Even last year’s over-romanticized defense gave up sustained drives but when it came to the red zone they closed the door.

This speaks to Belichick’s philosophy of playing disciplined but not over-aggressive defense. They might not get off the field as quickly as we all might like, but by forcing the offense to earn every yard, more often than not they get a stop or a turnover.

This is an awesome chart Chiuba.

venecol · Oct 2, 2015

patfanken said:
The most remarkable stat from last year was the one that from about the last 10-12 games of the season, including the 3 playoff games, the Pats DID NOT allow a 4th quarter TD. Now, I'm not sure of the exact number of games, but it was significant and the deed was impressive.

Obviously it wasn't nearly as good over the first half or so of the season. But that's the kind of goal I'd like to see us aspire to this year. The longer the game goes on, the harder it should be to score TD's on us.

BTW- it should be remembered that the Pats were far from a shut down defense in the first half of the season. It was only after it took a while for the defense to mesh together did it start to accumulate that remarkable stat. And while we can always point out that Revis and Browner aren't here. I don't think were have the potential to be as good on the DL, LB, and S THIS year as we were last. So while we lost a great deal at CB, we've also gained a good deal at other areas.

I agree, yet per the chart in 2014 the Pats were in the bottom 1/3 on yds/dr allowed but #8 in pts/dr allowed. This is why I am not worried about the DB situation because I trust BB had all off season to plan around not having Revis/Browner. Is it possible that we lose a game because our secondary gets burned during a critical point in a game, sure but then again I am not one expecting to go 19-0.

To me #1 prority is to make playoffs, #2 win division, #3 get #1 seed, the AFCCG, followed by SB. I feel good about this team and it's prospects.

Gumby · Oct 2, 2015

I think that chart would paint a stronger picture if it broke out the 'bend' data into stats for the 1-50 yd side of the field and the 50-EZ side.

A BB D plays stronger on a short field. The butler play being the ultimate example.

Deflatemyballs · Oct 2, 2015

I think it is a more conservative approach. That being said I highly doubt it's BB's plan for his defense to intentially "bend". I just think the way he builds his team 1-53 with the high emphasis on depth the way he does, it is difficult to pump out an elite top 1-5 defense in all aspects year after year with the amount of personnel turnover that goes on in the nfl. So in these years where he has to do more with less he puts emphasis on the more important aspects of a defense, and tightening up the red zone d and stocking the team with guys who have good ball skills. I'm sure in the perfect world bill would have all pros at every position and have the number 1 defense in all areas. But in the salary cap era that is just impossible and the "bend don't break approach" is the most efficient way to stay competitive when covering up a defense with flaws in some areas.

Tony2046 · Oct 2, 2015

venecol said:
I think the 2015 numbers should be disregarded given that it's only for 3 games. As we play more games the pts/dr. number should go down, which is the only number that really matters. That is the point of the spreadsheet, good job. We need to stop giving up points in garbage time.

I think the Pats have given up 3 TD's this year in Garbage time.

Zuma said:
Thats an interesting point. We have historically started slow in general IMO (however on offense were red hot early this year). I doubt their are similar numbers for the 1st 3 games...but would be interesting to see.

32.4 yards and 2.18 points per drive is not good.

It's not bad either. IMO. If you take away two garbage time TD's the Pats defense is a top 8 scoring defense. It is early and the defense will get better but the only number that matters is wins.

Zuma · Oct 3, 2015

Tony2046 said:
I think the Pats have given up 3 TD's this year in Garbage time.

It's not bad either. IMO. If you take away two garbage time TD's the Pats defense is a top 8 scoring defense. It is early and the defense will get better but the only number that matters is wins.

I agree the defense will get better...but you can't take out the "break" plays just to give the Pats better stats. You have to take it as a whole.

Tony2046 · Oct 3, 2015

Zuma said:
I agree the defense will get better...but you can't take out the "break" plays just to give the Pats better stats. You have to take it as a whole.

Partly agree. The defense has played above my expectations so far this year but the "stats" will not reflect that because of those last minute TD's. Are they playing differently when they know the game is effectively over? I think so.

A brief statistical overview of Belichick's "Bend Don't Break" and its success from 2001 to 2015

Soul_Survivor88

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Zuma

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Bobsyouruncle

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miDeuce

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Interception

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venecol

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miDeuce

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Zuma

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Bobsyouruncle

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Zuma

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patfanken

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Tony2046

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venecol

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Gumby

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Deflatemyballs

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Tony2046

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Zuma

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Tony2046

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