OT: Hurricane Joaquin

Kontradiction · Oct 1, 2015

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:
The different computer models are all over the place in their predictions of where this is going to go.

Take any "projected path" prediction with a big grain of salt.

each 'spaghetti track" results from a different program:

this is a good site for hurricane updates, with n ice graphics based upon NHC data.

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/

God damnit. One of them has it smacking Jacksonville. This city is woefully unprepared for a hurricane.

deters · Oct 1, 2015

KontradictioN said:
I've been through a lot of hurricanes in my life if that bad boy is a Cat 3-4 when it makes landfall, it's going to wreak havoc. Cat 3's have still been hurricane party time in Florida. You get as much beer as possible, get your friends together, and cook a feast before the power goes out. But a 3 is where you begin to get nervous. You can hear the trees crack and fall outside and the shingles and sophets blowing off the house. Hopefully it's a Cat 1-2. Those are really just bad tropical storms.

Pretty much. I'm in Tampa and have been through several storms both Tropical and Hurricanes. It's always a party for us until Cat 3, then my family leaves and I stay behind to watch the house. Anything higher than a 3, we all leave and pack stuff we don't want to lose. For areas up north, a Cat 2 is bad news though. They aren't prepared for storms up there. Take Sandy for instance. It was a joke of a storm in terms of strength when it made landfall on the US, yet it created devastation up north. NOAA reported a max sustained wind of only 65 mph upon landfall with gusts only as high as 83 being recorded. It was essentially a glorified tropical storm, and not even a Hurricane with those wind speeds. Only thing that would do down here is localized flooding, maybe some short power outages for a few hours, minimal damage to homes & trailers, and mild tree damage with most coming from soil saturation causing uprooting. If they get even a bare minimum cat 1, they're in trouble. A cat 2 or higher, they better GTFO of dodge.

KDPPatsfan85 · Oct 1, 2015

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:
The different computer models are all over the place in their predictions of where this is going to go.

Take any "projected path" prediction with a big grain of salt.

each 'spaghetti track" results from a different program:

this is a good site for hurricane updates, with n ice graphics based upon NHC data.

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/

Euro is king!!!

Kontradiction · Oct 1, 2015

deters said:
Pretty much. I'm in Tampa and have been through several storms both Tropical and Hurricanes. It's always a party for us until Cat 3, then my family leaves and I stay behind to watch the house. Anything higher than a 3, we all leave and pack stuff we don't want to lose. For areas up north, a Cat 2 is bad news though. They aren't prepared for storms up there. Take Sandy for instance. It was a joke of a storm in terms of strength when it made landfall on the US, yet it created devastation up north. NOAA reported a max sustained wind of only 65 mph upon landfall with gusts only as high as 83 being recorded. It was essentially a glorified tropical storm, and not even a Hurricane with those wind speeds. Only thing that would do down here is localized flooding, maybe some short power outages for a few hours, minimal damage to homes & trailers, and mild tree damage with most coming from soil saturation causing uprooting. If they get even a bare minimum cat 1, they're in trouble. A cat 2 or higher, they better GTFO of dodge.

Maybe I need a refresher but wasn't Sandy only so bad because of the sweeping power outages being sustained during winter conditions? Or did it actually do massive damage to standing structures?

deters · Oct 1, 2015

KontradictioN said:
Maybe I need a refresher but wasn't Sandy only so bad because of the sweeping power outages being sustained during winter conditions? Or did it actually do massive damage to standing structures?

It did major damage to homes as well as severe flooding and caused like 9 million people to lose power while it killed like over 100 people iirc. Just look up images on google to see. The scary part is that came from not even a classified hurricane because its sustained winds weren't high enough. A cat 1 is bad enough for them, anything higher and it will be total devastation. They don't have the building codes that we do down south that protect us from these storms.

Kontradiction · Oct 1, 2015

deters said:
It did major damage to homes as well as severe flooding and caused like 9 million people to lose power while it killed like over 100 people iirc. Just look up images on google to see. The scary part is that came from not even a classified hurricane because its sustained winds weren't high enough. A cat 1 is bad enough for them, anything higher and it will be total devastation. They don't have the building codes that we do down south that protect us from these storms.

True. I suppose it's akin to a blizzard hitting down here. People up north are not used to hurricanes and neither is their infrastructure.

HeadHunter · Oct 1, 2015

Euro and the GFDL are the most reliable models. But I think this year the Euro has been much better, looks like it takes it out to sea. Still way to early to tell though.

www.storm2k.com is a great forum to follow storms on. Lots of great info, from pro mets to people who just like to track these things.

patsfan13 · Oct 1, 2015

Lived in Jersey during Francis, the issues was the duration, not the top speed of the winds, we had heavy winds and rain for a long time. In the Poconos a lot of trees went down and there was a lot of flooding, the combination of wind and water was the problem, many trees came down when the winds were past peak. The ground was saturated, leaves on the trees, 40 mph winds for close to 24 hrs, lots of downed trees and power outages.

Marqui · Oct 1, 2015

Is this the first African American hurricane?

deters · Oct 1, 2015

patsfan13 said:
Lived in Jersey during Francis, the issues was the duration, not the top speed of the winds, we had heavy winds and rain for a long time. In the Poconos a lot of trees went down and there was a lot of flooding, the combination of wind and water was the problem, many trees came down when the winds were past peak. The ground was saturated, leaves on the trees, 40 mph winds for close to 24 hrs, lots of downed trees and power outages.

Primarily the duration of rain is what's worst with weak storms. If they are slow moving, they just pound you with rain which compounds all issues these things bring. Once the ground is saturated the roots won't hold, so even mild winds can tip it. It's really common for this to happen in our extreme thunderstorms in Florida. You're lucky winds were only 40 mph though, that's low end on tropical storm scale. Really only good for some broken branches, punching out pool screens or taking some shingles on an older roof.

Patsfanin Philly · Oct 1, 2015

HeadHunter said:
www.storm2k.com is a great forum to follow storms on. Lots of great info, from pro mets to people who just like to track these things.

That link appears to be for surgical technology.......

50-yard-line · Oct 1, 2015

Beware the storm surge - that's what did it for Sandy.

There's more water out there, and especially more along the East Coast right now for a bunch of reasons.
Also, there are strong easterly winds setting up right now that is bringing high surf before the storm even gets close.

Bradyking12 · Oct 1, 2015

They declared state of emergency here in jersey earlier

patsfan13 · Oct 1, 2015

50-yard-line said:
Beware the storm surge - that's what did it for Sandy.

There's more water out there, and especially more along the East Coast right now for a bunch of reasons.
Also, there are strong easterly winds setting up right now that is bringing high surf before the storm even gets close.

Because of a fetch, the surf could reach 17 ft Monday before the storm would arrive (Tuesday/wed) . Cowabunga.

woolster22 · Oct 1, 2015

Upgraded to a category 4 today. Yikes. I really hope this thing stays put to sea...

XLIX · Oct 1, 2015

KontradictioN said:
God damnit. One of them has it smacking Jacksonville. This city is woefully unprepared for a hurricane.

It's also woefully unprepared for hosting Super Bowls....

woolster22 · Oct 1, 2015

KontradictioN said:
God damnit. One of them has it smacking Jacksonville. This city is woefully unprepared for a hurricane.

Which side of the ditch are you on?

Kontradiction · Oct 1, 2015

woolster22 said:
Which side of the ditch are you on?

Jax Beach, brotha. For the last seven years. Before that, off of Hodges.

jays52 · Oct 1, 2015

A large part of what made Sandy so bad was due to timing. She made landfall on a full moon high tide which are always the largest tides (usually by about a foot) carrying with her a fairly large storm surge. Combine that with the fact that she was a low of around 950 millibars and the event effectively sucked the ocean up another ten feet. While Sandy had fairly weak winds relative to a hurricane, the event effectively put the Tri state area below sea level for twelve hours.

The Boston Patriot · Oct 1, 2015

Froob said:
Hmm so the Patriots just happen not to play on the weekend a big hurricane comes through? Seems awfully convenient.

OMG! Another Wells investigation probably. Kinsel and his band of imbeciles are probably scheming as we speak..

OT: Hurricane Joaquin

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