The One Year Rentals

tasmlab said:

I agree. But I have to wonder why Faulk was so integral and important and consistent for so many years where Vereen, Woodhead and maybe Lewis are just set free.

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I think we've seen a shift in philosophy since then (the Faulk days). BB has now seen several rounds of low cost replacements come in and perform to satisfaction, and IMO no longer values that position (i.e. feels there is no longer any real scarcity) as much now. Maybe they dumbed down the playbook requirements, so it allows them to do so. I no longer seem to see our RB's having as much trouble picking up blitzes as then. Or with the way the league has changed, blitz pickup its pretty much common knowledge and a job requirement. Or maybe now, TB just points out who to block. Or some combination of all of those. Whatever the reasons, it's nice luxury (strategic advantage) to have for a team to fill the position. Sssshh don't tell the rest of the league.

Allocation of positions is also interesting. We use to have 25 OFF, 25 DEF and 3 ST. And at the time, 2-3 of the defensive players were primarily special teamers.

Now, we have 21 on offense, 28 on defense, and 4 STers. (this will probably change in the next couple of days).

rookBoston said:

The One Year Rental strategy works hand in glove with the Compensatory Picks strategy. Drafting is an inexact science, like throwing darts in the dark. More picks, more darts. Every free agent that BB converts from a street free agent into an employable NFL player becomes a late round draft pick that next year. Another lotto ticket to draft the next David Givens, Dan Koppen, Julian Edelman.

Lewis has been great, but if he signs with some needy team in the offseason, BB will just dust off another guy, and take the 5th or 6th round compensatory pick in return. I really believe that White could do the job just fine, if Lewis walks.

Martin is another one. If he makes a name for himself this year and gets a good contract in the offseason, that's a win-win-win. Or, if he wants to stay for thin money, that's an option too.

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We'll see. Somehow, Kevin Faulk played his whole career here. And no, I don't think James White is anywhere near as effective as Lewis. Not impressed at all.

PatsFan2 said:

And I would be surprised if Dion Lewis didn't offer us a Discount knowing we are the only Team who gave him a legitimate opportunity to show his true talents. It might be in the Patriots best interest to try to extend him NOW! I don't see him trying to break the bank.

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Way too early to extend. He's a fumble away from riding pine.

I don't know what kind of person he is but Dion needs financial security. If he split for more money I wouldnt blame him one bit

robertweathers said:

Way too early to extend. He's a fumble away from riding pine.

I don't know what kind of person he is but Dion needs financial security. If he split for more money I wouldnt blame him one bit

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We won't know for sure until after the season anyway.

I don't think anyone's going to offer him a ton of money, after only one year of performance, and he might like it here for all we know.

And there will be a bit more cap space so, we'll see.

strngplyr said:

If BB were asked and answered honestly I think he'd tell you it was a mistake to choose Vereen over Woodhead. Lewis gives him a better version of Danny.

And like you said, White is a Vereen replacement, not upgrade. White still hasn't shown he can run the ball, something Vereen also never did in 4 seasons.

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I don't really agree with the above. Loved Woody, he had a fantastic first season with us, but by the end, his rushing yardage and average had declined each year, and he was turning 28 when BB decided to move on.

Woody went to San Diego, rushed for 4.0 yards per carry like his last season in NE, then got injured the next year after 3 games. So far this season, he's averaging 3.7 YPC, albeit with an extremely small sample size, but he's rushing for 3.8 YPC over his Chargers career.

If there was one regret, it might have been not having Woody for depth when Vereen got injured and missed half the season. But Vereen had a much better 2013 than Woody. Let's review (and remember Vereen played half the games that Woody did):

2013 comparison (rushing stats first, YPC is yards per carry/passing stats, YPR is yards per reception/ average yards per game)

Woody: 429 yards, 4.0 YPC/605 yards, 8.0 YPR/64.6 YPG
Vereen: 208 yards, 4.7 YPC/427 yards, 9.1 YPR/79.4 YPG

Woody wins on volume, but Vereen was more effective when he played. And Vereen missed the early to mid part of the season, so he was still available in the play-offs, where he played just as well as Woody.

Play-offs
Woody: 3.5 YPC/4.8 YPR/54 YPG
Vereen: 5.7 YPC/10.7 YPR/61 YPG

In 2014, Woody got hurt and missed the last 13 games of the season. Vereen was healthy and while his averages dropped a bit from the previous season, they were still comparable to Woody's last season in NE:

Woody in NE in 2012: 301 yards, 4.0 YPC/446 yards, 11.2 YPR/46.7 YPG
Vereen in NE in 2014: 391 yards, 4.1 YPC/447 yards, 8.6 YPR/52.3 YPG

It's also worth noting that Woody hasn't lit it up since leaving either. Part of this is playing for the Chargers, no doubt, but part of it might also be age or deteriorating skills.

Woody in NE: 4.8 YPC/10.7 YPR
Woody in SD: 3.8 YPC/8.1 YPR

And I think we remember that first season so fondly, we overlook the next two.

Woody in NE in 2010: 5.6 YPC/11.1 YPR/66.2 YPG
Woody in NE in 2011/2012: 4.3 YPC/10.4 YPR/40.5 YPG

So I don't think Woody was really a huge regret for BB. He's been solid, although slipped a bit since his peak, and Vereen certainly filled that void more than capably. And Vereen has performed much better in the play-offs. These are small sample sizes, but FWIW:

Woody in NE in play-offs: 3.4 YPC/9.4 YPR/38.5 YPG over 6 games
Vereen in NE in play-offs: 5.0 YPC/10.1 YPR/64.7 YPG over 7 games

As for Vereen's running capabilities, he wasn't a consistent guy, but he wasn't all that bad. He averaged 4.2 YPC for his Patriots career, just like Kevin Faulk, and I don't think anyone is saying Faulk could never run the ball. Woody's Patriots career average is higher because of that sparkling 5.6 YPC his first season, but he averaged 4.3 his next two. So I don't know how we can be critical of Vereen as a runner while applauding Woody, who has consistently declined since that first season.

Not trying to trash Woody, but I don't think BB regrets that decision.

convertedpatsfan said:

I don't really agree with the above. Loved Woody, he had a fantastic first season with us, but by the end, his rushing yardage and average had declined each year, and he was turning 28 when BB decided to move on.

Woody went to San Diego, rushed for 4.0 yards per carry like his last season in NE, then got injured the next year after 3 games. So far this season, he's averaging 3.7 YPC, albeit with an extremely small sample size, but he's rushing for 3.8 YPC over his Chargers career.

If there was one regret, it might have been not having Woody for depth when Vereen got injured and missed half the season. But Vereen had a much better 2013 than Woody. Let's review (and remember Vereen played half the games that Woody did):

2013 comparison (rushing stats first, YPC is yards per carry/passing stats, YPR is yards per reception/ average yards per game)

Woody: 429 yards, 4.0 YPC/605 yards, 8.0 YPR/64.6 YPG
Vereen: 208 yards, 4.7 YPC/427 yards, 9.1 YPR/79.4 YPG

Woody wins on volume, but Vereen was more effective when he played. And Vereen missed the early to mid part of the season, so he was still available in the play-offs, where he played just as well as Woody.

Play-offs
Woody: 3.5 YPC/4.8 YPR/54 YPG
Vereen: 5.7 YPC/10.7 YPR/61 YPG

In 2014, Woody got hurt and missed the last 13 games of the season. Vereen was healthy and while his averages dropped a bit from the previous season, they were still comparable to Woody's last season in NE:

Woody in NE in 2012: 301 yards, 4.0 YPC/446 yards, 11.2 YPR/46.7 YPG
Vereen in NE in 2014: 391 yards, 4.1 YPC/447 yards, 8.6 YPR/52.3 YPG

It's also worth noting that Woody hasn't lit it up since leaving either. Part of this is playing for the Chargers, no doubt, but part of it might also be age or deteriorating skills.

Woody in NE: 4.8 YPC/10.7 YPR
Woody in SD: 3.8 YPC/8.1 YPR

And I think we remember that first season so fondly, we overlook the next two.

Woody in NE in 2010: 5.6 YPC/11.1 YPR/66.2 YPG
Woody in NE in 2011/2012: 4.3 YPC/10.4 YPR/40.5 YPG

So I don't think Woody was really a huge regret for BB. He's been solid, although slipped a bit since his peak, and Vereen certainly filled that void more than capably. And Vereen has performed much better in the play-offs. These are small sample sizes, but FWIW:

Woody in NE in play-offs: 3.4 YPC/9.4 YPR/38.5 YPG over 6 games
Vereen in NE in play-offs: 5.0 YPC/10.1 YPR/64.7 YPG over 7 games

As for Vereen's running capabilities, he wasn't a consistent guy, but he wasn't all that bad. He averaged 4.2 YPC for his Patriots career, just like Kevin Faulk, and I don't think anyone is saying Faulk could never run the ball. Woody's Patriots career average is higher because of that sparkling 5.6 YPC his first season, but he averaged 4.3 his next two. So I don't know how we can be critical of Vereen as a runner while applauding Woody, who has consistently declined since that first season.

Not trying to trash Woody, but I don't think BB regrets that decision.

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WoW! You sure know your Woody!

rochrist said:

We'll see. Somehow, Kevin Faulk played his whole career here. And no, I don't think James White is anywhere near as effective as Lewis. Not impressed at all.

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Sounds like what people said about Edelman filling for Welker.

White may or may not be as effective as Lewis, but that is not the point.

What is the job?
(1) pick up the blitzing LB/DB
(2) catch the swing pass out of the backfield every time
(3) run the inside draw and make a few people miss
(4) line up in the slot as a WR and beat a LB in coverage

Can White get the job done?
Answer is yes of course he can. We've already seen it. There's no special magic here. Second half against the Jags, he cycled in and played the role just fine: moved the chains, kept Brady clean. In fact, White's performance Week 3 may have helped make Cadet releasable. We've already seen more from White than we'd seen from Vereen when he took up the baton. The fact that BB puts him on the field on gameday at all, when there are other options at RB, means he's shown up in practice.

The idea that a GM needs to get "THE very best player" for every job is really a myth that leads to overspending for that ONE guy. Faulk, Woodhead, Vereen and Lewis all did the job slightly differently. Vereen, IMO, was the best of them on the swing pass, Woodhead was better between the tackles, Lewis has a rare ability to change direction. Doesn't matter. They were all productive and successful doing the job, moving the chains, and we can argue who was "best" and who was "fastest" and "shiftiest"... whatever. It's like debating who gets an A and who gets an A+ and who gets an A++.

For the Faulk-Woodhead-Vereen-Lewis role, it couldn't be more clear that Belichick believes that he doesn't need to spend premium resources to do that job well. Belichick is an economist. Supply-side, this job description is not as hard to fill as other jobs on a football field.

Example: Nature only makes a handful of 325# human beings with the explosive power, agility and long arms to be disruptive at the NT position. Ted Washington types. In any draft class, there are at most one or two who MIGHT be able to do that job. Add in the mental capacity and leadership skills that BB wants in his players, and you start to understand why he spends premium draft picks on the DL all the time. It's about scarcity.

In contrast, shifty, undersized, running backs with good hands that can read the defensive front seven, and are not afraid to stick his nose into a blitzing linebacker with a head of steam? There are half a dozen that come into the league every year, and a handful of high skill guys who are unemployed any given year (like Lewis last year, and Cadet this year). A veritable glut. They're all slightly different, with different strengths. But for the job, any number of guys can do it well.

So, if BB loses one guy to free agency, it's not too hard to reload. BB barely tried to retain Vereen or Woodhead. They both got more money from other teams than BB would have paid them. Faulk stuck on the roster his whole career, but that likely was Faulk's choice. If Lewis wants to play for the Pats until he retires, he just needs to say Yes to whatever lowball contract BB offers him, and he'll become a fixture and a legend for us for another five years at least. But, he's leaving money on the table.

• Compensatory Picks Are Based on Players Lost/Gained in Free Agency: In most cases, a team needs to have lost more players who qualify for compensatory status than gained over the last league year. The NFL determines which players qualify for said status.
• A Team Cannot Have More Than Four Compensatory Picks: This is for obvious, competitive-balance reasons.
• All Free Agents Are Not Considered Equal: The NFL makes its determination on what round compensatory players correlate to via a combination of factors: "salary, playing time and postseason honors," per a 2012 press release. The exact formula, again, is not public; however, it's a pretty good bet that the more money a player makes, the higher his compensatory value. In essence: Look for the Detroit Lions to land squarely in the third round next year after losing Ndamukong Suh to the Miami Dolphins.
• There Are 32 Selections That Can Be Awarded: Theoretically, there is one for every team.
• The Compensatory Picks Are Tacked on to Rounds 3-7: They are then ordered based on a private selections process.

I underlined the parts that if the NFL wanted to screw with the Patriots compensatory picks, they might have the wiggle room to do so.

rookBoston said:

Sounds like what people said about Edelman filling for Welker.

White may or may not be as effective as Lewis, but that is not the point.

What is the job?
(1) pick up the blitzing LB/DB
(2) catch the swing pass out of the backfield every time
(3) run the inside draw and make a few people miss
(4) line up in the slot as a WR and beat a LB in coverage

Can White get the job done?
Answer is yes of course he can. We've already seen it. There's no special magic here. Second half against the Jags, he cycled in and played the role just fine: moved the chains, kept Brady clean. In fact, White's performance Week 3 may have helped make Cadet releasable. We've already seen more from White than we'd seen from Vereen when he took up the baton. The fact that BB puts him on the field on gameday at all, when there are other options at RB, means he's shown up in practice.

The idea that a GM needs to get "THE very best player" for every job is really a myth that leads to overspending for that ONE guy. Faulk, Woodhead, Vereen and Lewis all did the job slightly differently. Vereen, IMO, was the best of them on the swing pass, Woodhead was better between the tackles, Lewis has a rare ability to change direction. Doesn't matter. They were all productive and successful doing the job, moving the chains, and we can argue who was "best" and who was "fastest" and "shiftiest"... whatever. It's like debating who gets an A and who gets an A+ and who gets an A++.

For the Faulk-Woodhead-Vereen-Lewis role, it couldn't be more clear that Belichick believes that he doesn't need to spend premium resources to do that job well. Belichick is an economist. Supply-side, this job description is not as hard to fill as other jobs on a football field.

Example: Nature only makes a handful of 325# human beings with the explosive power, agility and long arms to be disruptive at the NT position. Ted Washington types. In any draft class, there are at most one or two who MIGHT be able to do that job. Add in the mental capacity and leadership skills that BB wants in his players, and you start to understand why he spends premium draft picks on the DL all the time. It's about scarcity.

In contrast, shifty, undersized, running backs with good hands that can read the defensive front seven, and are not afraid to stick his nose into a blitzing linebacker with a head of steam? There are half a dozen that come into the league every year, and a handful of high skill guys who are unemployed any given year (like Lewis last year, and Cadet this year). A veritable glut. They're all slightly different, with different strengths. But for the job, any number of guys can do it well.

So, if BB loses one guy to free agency, it's not too hard to reload. BB barely tried to retain Vereen or Woodhead. They both got more money from other teams than BB would have paid them. Faulk stuck on the roster his whole career, but that likely was Faulk's choice. If Lewis wants to play for the Pats until he retires, he just needs to say Yes to whatever lowball contract BB offers him, and he'll become a fixture and a legend for us for another five years at least. But, he's leaving money on the table.

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Sorry, I don't think White is very good. He's almost entirely unable to make anyone miss, based on last year as well as this, the exact opposite of Lewis. I'd rather have Cadet than White.

And no, I never said anything like that about Edleman. It was clear from the beginning that as long as he could prove an ability to stay healthy, that he could play the game at a very high level.