20 NFL Rookies Who Are Already Looking Like Disappointments

Sticky Caulk · Oct 1, 2015

Jackson 2 said:
I knew you'd end up apologizing.

I get that terrible is a harsh word to use talking about how he has played, but I didn't use it to mean he is trash or a bust. I know he can just as easily be cut in a few years as he could be a mainstay on the line, but I hold out hope and try to be 'glass half-full' with young players. You can see the avatar for proof of that. I still think that guy has #1 potential. That's an opinion that (probably rightfully) will get you laughed out of here.

Jackson 2 · Oct 1, 2015

Sticky Caulk said:
I get that terrible is a harsh word to use talking about how he has played, but I didn't use it to mean he is trash or a bust. I know he can just as easily be cut in a few years as he could be a mainstay on the line, but I hold out hope and try to be 'glass half-full' with young players. You can see the avatar for proof of that. I still think that guy has #1 potential. That's an opinion that (probably rightfully) will get you laughed out of here.

Hey, no harm, no foul. Just sports talk banter.

PP2 · Oct 1, 2015

robertweathers said:
Brown has not been horrible. He's been very inconsistent. Some good plays and some not so good plays which for me was expected. Vs JAX he was not great. He's been playing about 30% of the snaps. He'll be better at the end of the season. He's too good not to be....just like Vince.

In other words, just like a rookie?

RobertWeathers · Oct 1, 2015

Sticky Caulk said:
Vince wasn't an instant star, no doubt. That's why I said a list calling out 20 talented players and alluding to them being busts is 'weird'. It's way too early to tell what any of their futures hold. Brown may never pan out or he might be the next big name DT in football.

I do think he's completely overmatched right now and that's what I mean by terrible. He has a few flashes, but he's not ready.

Well we will disagree here. He is not overmatched. He's showing up on the stat sheet and contributing.

You seem to be suggesting that he should sit.

RobertWeathers · Oct 1, 2015

PP2 said:
In other words, just like a rookie?

Who knows what to truly make of the Hicks trade. Maybe Malcom isn't picking things up quickly enough. Maybe Chris Jones rejoining the team is in jeopardy.

To me, Brown has been pushed around a bit no question. However I have seen him shed blockers and be active.

Just needs to be consistent and not a rookie which is hard because he is one.

Sicilian · Oct 1, 2015

I have no doubt that Malcolm Brown isn't as good now as he could be, but I think when people start throwing around terms like "completely overmatched" and "terrible", they're being both hyperbolic, and ignorant to how difficult it is to evaluate interior DL from your TV.

Sticky Caulk · Oct 1, 2015

Sicilian said:
I have no doubt that Malcolm Brown isn't as good now as he could be, but I think when people start throwing around terms like "completely overmatched" and "terrible", they're being both hyperbolic, and ignorant to how difficult it is to evaluate interior DL from your TV.

No more or less ignorant than anyone else, but thanks for the kind words.

PatriotsPimp136 · Oct 1, 2015

Brown could be better then what he has showned. We will see as time passes. To say he's a dissapointment is a joke

mgcolby · Oct 1, 2015

Talk about a "ah....ah...WHAT THE **** am I gonna write about today? (Light bulb turns on) I got it....****ty rookies. Nostradamous ain't got nothing on me!" Article.

shmessy · Oct 1, 2015

Jackson 2 said:
The accuracy is debatable. But I guess my question is this: "If it's 'weird' (your word) to evaluate a rookie 3 weeks in, why did you do it?"

Rich Hill is one of the best Patriots football analysts out there. yes, it's 3 weeks. Yes, Malcolm Brown can improve. Wilfork was similar early on:

http://www.patspulpit.com/2015/9/28...ots-1st-round-pick-dt-malcom-brown-is-kind-of

primetime · Oct 1, 2015

This feels like both recency bias and fantasy football mindsets all at once. If you're not filling the stat sheet, you're already a disappointment.

The fact that half of the list is receivers should be telling. Last year's crop of rookie receivers did things that no other rookies have ever done. It was a total fluke, and will probably never happen again. Heck, Julio Jones had just a hair over 50 catches his rookie year; Demaryius Thomas only had 22, and Antonio Brown a mere 16!

Also, something tells me the guy who wrote this list (really, Rant Sports?) has watched maybe 1 or 2 of these players actually play a single football game, and is otherwise just depending on a tiny sample size of statistics to make claims about their performance. With the way every single profile is written ("he's been average against the run, bad at getting pressure"), it seems to me like he's using PFF statistics. You know, the website that said Aaron Rodgers had a bad game on Monday night.

And, yeah, glancing really quickly at PFF's similar piece, that seems to be the case: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/09/30/how-all-2015-first-round-picks-have-played/

Kontradiction · Oct 1, 2015

mosi · Oct 1, 2015

And who do they consider to be good?

Sticky Caulk · Oct 1, 2015

primetime said:
This feels like both recency bias and fantasy football mindsets all at once. If you're not filling the stat sheet, you're already a disappointment.

The fact that half of the list is receivers should be telling. Last year's crop of rookie receivers did things that no other rookies have ever done. It was a total fluke, and will probably never happen again. Heck, Julio Jones had just a hair over 50 catches his rookie year; Demaryius Thomas only had 22, and Antonio Brown a mere 16!

Also, something tells me the guy who wrote this list (really, Rant Sports?) has watched maybe 1 or 2 of these players actually play a single football game, and is otherwise just depending on a tiny sample size of statistics to make claims about their performance. With the way every single profile is written ("he's been average against the run, bad at getting pressure"), it seems to me like he's using PFF statistics. You know, the website that said Aaron Rodgers had a bad game on Monday night.

And, yeah, glancing really quickly at PFF's similar piece, that seems to be the case: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/09/30/how-all-2015-first-round-picks-have-played/

That's exactly what it is. The D. Parker stuff is really dumb. Miami has not gone out of their way to target him. So he's somehow not 'asserting himself'. That's moronic. Parker wasn't getting targeted until last week when the entire Dolphins offense was flailing around. They already have two trusted receivers ahead of him and he was still targeted seven times. If Miami is disappointed in him, 31 teams would love to have him. Unfortunately, even Philbin isn't that stupid.

Oswlek · Oct 1, 2015

This is like saying that 70% of people are below average. If 20 of 32 first rounders are disappointing, the problem is expectations not performance.

Bobsyouruncle · Oct 1, 2015

Oswlek said:
This is like saying that 70% of people are below average. If 20 of 32 first rounders are disappointing, the problem is expectations more than performance.

Uh oh, prepare for pedantic lectures on mean and median.

Bobsyouruncle · Oct 1, 2015

Everyone knows you have to wait until the fourth game to tell if a rookie is a bust.

ctpatsfan77 · Oct 1, 2015

DarrylS said:
Who the F is "rant sports"???.. in the first three games:
Game 1.. 31 D Snaps or 35%
Game 2...21 D Snaps or 29%
Game 3...22 D Snaps or 39%

Not sure how you can evaluate any rookie after 74 Defensive snaps...

Rant Sports is Bleacher Report without the quality control.

PatsFan2 · Oct 1, 2015

Well atleast Rant Sports ain't putting anybody in Canton after Three games.

Sciz · Oct 1, 2015

I was under the impression that Andrus Peat has been the worst first rounder, and I didn't consider it to be particularly close. He made headlines for his terrible conditioning in training camp, and he has played 15 offensive snaps this season. Somehow, he doesn't make the list. I'm just going to assume that it's because he hasn't played enough to get a bad PFF rating, which it seems was just about the only basis for this article.

Edit: I'm on my laptop now, so copying and pasting isn't a nightmare. Look at these snippets and tell me this isn't coming directly from PFF's grades:

Although he’s proven to be a reliable run blocker, he’s getting absolutely demolished in pass protection.
He’s a liability in coverage, struggles against the run
has been absolutely dominated in the run game while providing little impact as a pass rusher.
he’s been average against the run. However, the amount of pressure he’s producing up the middle hasn’t lived up to the billing.
Not only is he missing tackles left and right, but he’s been a disaster in coverage
been utterly ineffective as a run defender and pass rusher.
he’s consistently struggling to keep pass rushers at bay. His run blocking chops haven't been much better.
has been destroyed as a run blocker
Not only has he struggled with missed tackles, but he’s routinely getting smoked in coverage.

20 NFL Rookies Who Are Already Looking Like Disappointments

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