The Patriots' Schedule and What It Presents

BTTA · Sep 24, 2015

50-yard-line said:
The team is deep, deep, deep.

This.

50-yard-line · Sep 24, 2015

You always have to recognize that you're likely to lose games you should win, of course, but honestly, I think this Pats team is better than last year's team, or will be as the season goes along.

The front 7 will make up for the weaker secondary, which isn't terrible (just doesn't have Revis), and that secondary will get better with group experience, of course.

The offense is deeper - Brady has more targets, the OL is a great work in progress (with Wendell and Stork not even playing yet!), and Lewis has shown that they can get past the loss of Vereen.

And the schedule is nowhere near as tough as last year. It just isn't...Packers in Lambeau, KC in KC, Ravens, etc.

I thought they're toughest games would be Pittsburgh, in Buffalo, in Denver and Dallas. Two down and the other two aren't what I feared, though either injury or decline. If they lose more than 4 games, I'll be shocked, but one week at a time. Jacksonville is a trap game with a big win behind them and a bye after it.

MrNathanDrake · Sep 24, 2015

any schedule would be easy for the pats this year…. the only REAL threats from what I can see right now would be Green Bay and Seattle in their home stadiums.

but we don't play either of them in the regular season. Dallas is crippled, Denver doesn't look too threatening although we never play well in Denver, and the Jets defense has been really good so far but they haven't faced an offense like ours yet.

I think the Pats go 13-3 or 14-2 this year and get the #1 seed. Denver and Baltimore were our biggest threats last year in the AFC and neither of them look strong this year. Pittsburgh could be a tough game in the playoffs though. Really the only challenger to the Patriots come playoff time from what I can see right now.

PatsWickedPissah · Sep 24, 2015

jmt57 said:
While things look great after two games, a reality check for the 16-0 crowd.

You can pretty much count on at least on WTF game, and one division loss. In addition, nothing on the road should be taken lightly. Being favored to win every game is completely different from being expected to win every one of those games.

2014: Week 1 loss at Miami by 13 (Pats favored by 5)
2014: Week 4 loss at Kansas City by 27 (Pats favored by 3)
2014 road record: 5-3
2014 division record: 4-2

2013: Week 5 loss at Cincinnati by 7 (Pats favored by 1)
2013: Week 7 loss at N.Y. Jets by 3 (Pats favored by 3)
2013 road record: 4-4
2013 division record 4-2

2012: Week 2 loss vs Arizona by 2 (Pats favored by 13.5)
2012: Week 6 loss at Seattle by 1 (Pats favored by 4)
2012: Week 15 loss vs San Francisco by 7 (Pats favored by 5)
2012 road record: 6-2
2012 division record: 6-0

2011: Week 3 loss at Buffalo by 3 (Pats favored by 7.5)
2011: Week 8 loss at Pittsburgh by 8 (Pats favored by 3)
2011: Week 9 loss at N.Y. Giants by 4 (Pats favored by 9)
2011 road record: 6-2
2011 division record: 5-1

2010: Week 2 loss at N.Y. Jets by 14 (Pats favored by 3)
2010: Week 9 loss at Cleveland by 20 (Pats favored by 4)
2010 road record: 6-2
2010 division record: 5-1

2009: Week 2 loss at N.Y. Jets by 7 (Pats favored by 3.5)
2009: Week 5 loss at Denver by 3 (Pats favored by 3)
2009: Week 13 loss at Miami by 1 (Pats favored by 5)
2009 road record: 2-6
2009 division record: 4-2

In recent history, on average the Pats go about 5-3 on the road.
Within the division the Patriots are more likely to go 4-2 than 6-0.

It is fun to aspire for an undefeated season, but at the same time it is simply not a realistic expectation.

Exactly.
I'm a Brady's Lady from day one but every season he has at least one WTF game. Not sure this year's D will carry him through to a W if so unless the opponents are having a bakery turnover game.

Grizzafted · Sep 24, 2015

o hai im 2014 and i wonder if you remember me. im the year when in the first q of the season the patriots looked like dogsh!t and then went on to win the super bowl.

its completely impossible to predict how any of these teams will look or play later in the season. we're two games in.

washington looks like a layup but they're running the ball well and maybe kirk cousins has one of those "make a backup look like bart starr" games the patriots like to dust off every few years. Jets played last year's Pats to within 3 at home and on the road, and they're arguably better this yr personnel and coaching wise.

we'll see what happens.

Oswlek · Sep 24, 2015

50-yard-line said:
Browner was no better in coverage than Fletcher

I'm not sure if Fletcher cannot have a role, but Browner did not allow at least one TD per game where he was 2 or more yards behind a wide open receiver. There is no doubt that Bradley has been worse than Brandon this far.

50-yard-line · Sep 24, 2015

Oswlek said:
I'm not sure if Fletcher cannot have a role, but Browner did not allow at least one TD per game where he was 2 or more yards behind a wide open receiver. There is no doubt that Bradley has been worse than Brandon this far.

Oh, I think there's plenty of doubt to that. Browner had more penalties than games last year, and was rarely left alone deep.

He also missed the first 4 games, so by the time he came in, the secondary, which included Revis, was clicking. I like Browner, but I get why they cut him.

PatsBoy12 · Sep 24, 2015

I still think Cousins could have completed that pass. It was not far off.

Oswlek · Sep 25, 2015

50-yard-line said:
Oh, I think there's plenty of doubt to that. Browner had more penalties than games last year, and was rarely left alone deep.

At least Browner was close enough to interfere with the receiver.

RIpats88 · Sep 25, 2015

All i have to say is. The 2 best qbs we have on our schedule to face are

Andrew luck...who we will decimate that team

Peyton manning in late November. Considering how his arm looks now i can only imagine how it will look in 2 months.

I think we will drop maybe miami in miami and maybe one of the jets games is possible

Pats-Phan · Sep 28, 2015

turns out Jax was indeed cup cake city

ivanvamp · Sep 28, 2015

Pats-Phan said:
turns out Jax was indeed cup cake city

Indeed!

SHOWTIME15 · Sep 28, 2015

denver in denver is the toughest remaining test by far. I just don't really see anyone else that could trip this team during the regular season up as long as we are healthy. just think what this offense will do once lafell and stork come back.

in the playoffs kansas city, denver, pittsburgh could be trouble but that's a long ways away.

Soul_Survivor88 · Sep 28, 2015

TommyBrady12 said:
in the playoffs kansas city, denver, pittsburgh could be trouble but that's a long ways away.

The Bills scored 19 unanswered points against us in the 4th quarter last week, just blew out the Dolphins, and are currently the third highest-scoring offense in the League. I expect them to be a challenge come November, when we face them a second time. And I'd go as far as to call them a potential playoff team.

aluminum seats · Sep 28, 2015

A few thoughts on this:

--Please spare me the posters who predict/guarantee any particularly record, particularly undefeated. It's just silly, and nobody's going to come back at season's end and say, "wow, you really nailed it!" Anybody can make a guess, which is fine, but enough with the "you heard it hear first" nonsense.

--The Pats under Belichick and Brady always post winning records, but there's one they haven't finished with yet, 15-1. Law of averages?

--Someone in this thread mentioned the Colts. A little OT, but I was thinking the other day how surprising it is that a seemingly sharp football mind like Ron Jawarski picked the Colts to win the AFC. I just can't see how their offseason moves would have led anyone to that conclusion.

--On the odds of the Pats going 19-0, a poster did the math on it using an 80% probability per game. I would say that's a bit low--the Jax game, for example, would have been more in the neighborhood of 95%, I think. And would any be lower than 80%? I don't think so. So I think more realistically the odds would land somewhere around 8%. Fun to play with the numbers a bit.

jah · Sep 28, 2015

aluminum seats said:
A few thoughts on this:

--Please spare me the posters who predict/guarantee any particularly record, particularly undefeated. It's just silly, and nobody's going to come back at season's end and say, "wow, you really nailed it!" Anybody can make a guess, which is fine, but enough with the "you heard it hear first" nonsense.

--The Pats under Belichick and Brady always post winning records, but there's one they haven't finished with yet, 15-1. Law of averages?

--Someone in this thread mentioned the Colts. A little OT, but I was thinking the other day how surprising it is that a seemingly sharp football mind like Ron Jawarski picked the Colts to win the AFC. I just can't see how their offseason moves would have led anyone to that conclusion.

--On the odds of the Pats going 19-0, a poster did the math on it using an 80% probability per game. I would say that's a bit low--the Jax game, for example, would have been more in the neighborhood of 95%, I think. And would any be lower than 80%? I don't think so. So I think more realistically the odds would land somewhere around 8%. Fun to play with the numbers a bit.

The law of averages doesn't exist in any field of science.

deters · Sep 28, 2015

If this team plays like its capabkenfor 60 minutes and remains healthy, there isn't a team on the schedule I see beating them at this point. I see maybe 2 losses tops if everything goes fine and that's most likely because BB rests starters after getting #1 seed.

SHOWTIME15 · Sep 28, 2015

Chiuba E. Obele said:
The Bills scored 19 unanswered points against us in the 4th quarter last week, just blew out the Dolphins, and are currently the third highest-scoring offense in the League. I expect them to be a challenge come November, when we face them a second time. And I'd go as far as to call them a potential playoff team.

buffalo will be tough, as you say, but we get them in foxboro the next time. and we let them back in the game because we took the foot off the gas pedal almg with questionable play calling.

Sicilian · Sep 28, 2015

TommyBrady12 said:
buffalo will be tough, as you say, but we get them in foxboro the next time. and we let them back in the game because we took the foot off the gas pedal almg with questionable play calling.

Yeah, in a way that 4th quarter may have been good for them. They still got the win, but BB will have some direct evidence to show what happens when they don't take an opponent seriously enough, no matter the circumstances.

YOUGOTMOSSED · Sep 28, 2015

Back to back road games are usually a problem and going to Denver on 6 days rest is going to be a challenge.

Based on this logic: the games @Colts, @Denver, and @Miami (last game and probably irrelevant) may very well be losses. The Colts look too soft to pose a real challenge so I'm cautiously optimistic about that one. Denver has a real defense so playing them on the road on short rest should be the most challenging game this year.

I'm sticking with my 14-2 prediction. Last game in Miami will be irrelevant and we lose 1 game before that (either @Denver or some WTF type "off day" situation).

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