Dion Lewis - RFA or UFA in 2016?

Chiuba E. Obele said:

I'm not too worried about that. Lewis isn't likely to leave the team after just one season. Journeymen don't tend to leave teams that accept them, especially after being given a starting role.

The only concern I have with Lewis is whether he can hold onto the ball. If he continues to fumble, and if Belichick is forced to bench him, it would be a HUGE waste of talent IMO. He has got to get this under control, quickly, or else it will impact his career.

Click to expand...

The guy is really fun to watch when he gets the ball. To his credit I saw him really holding the ball high and tight on the plays he had after the fumble. Hope that continues.

Chiuba E. Obele said:

Fair enough. But winners tend to want to remain around other winners

If he keeps doing what he's doing now, I'm sure the Pats will find a way to pay him.

Click to expand...

Sure, the Pats will pay him a nice sum and form the best passing back combo in the league with Woody and Vereen...wait a second...

BB has White and Cadet ready to take over in 2016 if necessary. He's got a number for Dion, and if Dion gets more, thanks for the memories.

2 games ago, this guy was likely a cut. Now he's an All Pro Hall of Famer with a guaranteed 1oo million dollar contract we can't possibly match.

Only on Patsfans...

Chiuba E. Obele said:

Fair enough. But winners tend to want to remain around other winners

If he keeps doing what he's doing now, I'm sure the Pats will find a way to pay him.

Click to expand...

Pats didn't pay Woodhead
Pats didn't pay Vereen
Both were winners...and Vereen has a ring to prove it.
Seems to me Bill has issues paying RBs a decent wage.....and certainly not market rate. Kevin Faulk maxed out at $2.5/yr before sticking with lesser contracts.
Maybe Lewis will stick and get $$$ worthy of a double threat .......but history has proven other teams value NE's scat backs more than NE

borg said:

Pats didn't pay Woodhead
Pats didn't pay Vereen
Both were winners...and Vereen has a ring to prove it.
Seems to me Bill has issues paying RBs a decent wage.....and certainly not market rate. Kevin Faulk maxed out at $2.5/yr before sticking with lesser contracts.
Maybe Lewis will stick and get $$$ worthy of a double threat .......but history has proven other teams value NE's scat backs more than NE

Click to expand...

Yeah, but this is Dion's first year with the team. Vereen and Woodhead left after multi-year commitments and with a proven track record of success. Lewis hardly fits the profile, so I don't know if he's in the same position to ask for more money than the team would otherwise give him.

We'll have to wait and see. Until then...let's sit back and enjoy watching him play

BB will have a number in mind, for the value he perceives from Lewis. If that number is mutually agreeable, Lewis will sign and we'll have a guy for a few years.

But RB is certainly the position where BB feels he can find productive players in the draft or in free agency. Not since Corey Dillon has he really gone out of his way to bring in a premium back, and remember Corey was coming off the trash heap.

And that was a different era, back when you could actually get physical with a wide receiver. In the new passing league, the power RB position is diminished, and there are quick twitch running backs with good hands walking the streets... guys like Dion Lewis, in fact.

As mentioned, Cadet and White are on the roster, too, and BB went out of his way to keep them both. So, there's probably a plan within a plan here.

borg said:

Pats didn't pay Woodhead
Pats didn't pay Vereen
Both were winners...and Vereen has a ring to prove it.
Seems to me Bill has issues paying RBs a decent wage.....and certainly not market rate. Kevin Faulk maxed out at $2.5/yr before sticking with lesser contracts.
Maybe Lewis will stick and get $$$ worthy of a double threat .......but history has proven other teams value NE's scat backs more than NE

Click to expand...

Fair point. as I've said, there's no lack of short slot receivers and RB/receivers. However, a special talent, is a special talent. Julian Edelman almost got cut more than once. I think with Lewis running ability [not as good a receiver right now as faulk or vereen IMO] I think he is not replaceable.

I can't see the comparisons to Woodhead myself. He was quick and gutsy. Lewis is the most elusive RB I've seen, even in a crowd and he's built solidly, though short and reportedly can bench press in the neighborhood of 400 lbs.

These guys are 5th rounders or UDFA until they prove themselves, but look at Welker, BB traded a 2nd and who would argue [He also offered him a good contract and the fool turned it down.]

I think Lewis is special and the victim of a general prejudice against guys who are too short. His elusiveness is unique. I've heard more than one Barry Sanders comparison and,even if that's a stretch, the thought seems impossible.

I also don't think these guys will play anywhere for the highest bidder. Nobody wants to play their career in Cleveland or similar and Dion seems like as smart guy. The Pats have a good history of retaining guys they want and i know they aren't always the highest bidder.

RayClay said:

2 games ago, this guy was likely a cut. Now he's an All Pro Hall of Famer with a guaranteed 1oo million dollar contract we can't possibly match.

Only on Patsfans...

Click to expand...

That's not a fair reflection of what's being said here. The issue is what will happen if he continues to perform as he has, and continues to improve it.

He's provided 130 yards/game, and averaged 5 yards a carry and 15 yards a reception. That's pretty special. And he's young, so he could get better. There's no way to know where it goes; that's why the thread is speculative in nature.

I love Lewis in this offense. He excels as a scat back, but has the running ability to play on first & second down. He gives the offense a dimension that they haven't had in the Brady era and it's going to be fun to watch.

After fighting for years to prove himself, Lewis has to appreciate the opportunity the Pats are giving him. I'd like to see him extended, much like Danny Woodhead was in his first year with the Pats, for a reasonable deal over the bye week.

RayClay said:

I also don't think these guys will play anywhere for the highest bidder. Nobody wants to play their career in Cleveland or similar and Dion seems like as smart guy. The Pats have a good history of retaining guys they want and i know they aren't always the highest bidder.

Click to expand...

Besides Brady, who exactly has been agreeing to team friendly $$$? Maybe Vollmer and Ninkovich.
McCourty leveraged FA offers to secure his huge contract.
Gronk was given the biggest TE contract ever.
Gostkowski is the highest paid kicker
During the BB era....players like......Mankins, Wilfork, Seymour, Branch, Vinatieri, Samuels, Welker all were willing to battle the NE front office to get paid.
There's $4.5 billion in available NFL salary every year and for 99.9% of all players, this is their one and only time to set up the rest of their lives. This notion of "team friendly" is more fallacy than fact.

borg said:

Besides Brady, who exactly has been agreeing to team friendly $$$? Maybe Vollmer and Ninkovich.
McCourty leveraged FA offers to secure his huge contract.
Gronk was given the biggest TE contract ever.
Gostkowski is the highest paid kicker
During the BB era....players like......Mankins, Wilfork, Seymour, Branch, Vinatieri, Samuels, Welker all were willing to battle the NE front office to get paid.
There's $4.5 billion in available NFL salary every year and for 99.9% of all players, this is their one and only time to set up the rest of their lives. This notion of "team friendly" is more fallacy than fact.

Click to expand...

I agree with almost all of your analysis. Players not named Bruschi or Brady do not take discounts to play for the patriots. I'm not sure that the oft injured Vollmer would have done better elsewhere. Vollmer might have been paid better for a year somewhere else; but here he get top dollar, and is given rest time during every game (the patriots pay a lot for Cannon as a needed backup for Vollmer). Also, I'm not sure of Ninkovich's market, then or now.

However, the idea of "team friendly" contracts is NOT a fallacy. For me, this refers to contract structure. Sometimes the team needs current cap relief. Sometimes, the team wants the ability to get out of a contract. Sometimes the team wants no possibility of the franchise tag next year. There are lots of examples of "team friendly" contracts.

You mentioned Gronkowski as being paid the "biggest TE contract" ever. I strongly disagree. Gronk's guaranteed money was nowhere near the best ever. Gronk certainly had the possibility of pulling up lame at any point. The team wanted protection. Gronk gave it to them in a very team-friendly contract.

BlueThunder said:

How soon we forget Danny Woodhead

Click to expand...

Loved that guy! DW did it for 2 years though, so check back then

Also, #217 on list of players plucked from obscurity, made into a contributing NFL player by BB maximizing some misused strength, then with his blessing, moving on to a big payday when the $ came knocking.

borg said:

Besides Brady, who exactly has been agreeing to team friendly $$$? Maybe Vollmer and Ninkovich.
McCourty leveraged FA offers to secure his huge contract.
Gronk was given the biggest TE contract ever.
Gostkowski is the highest paid kicker
During the BB era....players like......Mankins, Wilfork, Seymour, Branch, Vinatieri, Samuels, Welker all were willing to battle the NE front office to get paid.
There's $4.5 billion in available NFL salary every year and for 99.9% of all players, this is their one and only time to set up the rest of their lives. This notion of "team friendly" is more fallacy than fact.

Click to expand...

mgteich said:

I agree with almost all of your analysis. Players not named Bruschi or Brady do not take discounts to play for the patriots. I'm not sure that the oft injured Vollmer would have done better elsewhere. Vollmer might have been paid better for a year somewhere else; but here he get top dollar, and is given rest time during every game (the patriots pay a lot for Cannon as a needed backup for Vollmer). Also, I'm not sure of Ninkovich's market, then or now.

However, the idea of "team friendly" contracts is NOT a fallacy. For me, this refers to contract structure. Sometimes the team needs current cap relief. Sometimes, the team wants the ability to get out of a contract. Sometimes the team wants no possibility of the franchise tag next year. There are lots of examples of "team friendly" contracts.

You mentioned Gronkowski as being paid the "biggest TE contract" ever. I strongly disagree. Gronk's guaranteed money was nowhere near the best ever. Gronk certainly had the possibility of pulling up lame at any point. The team wanted protection. Gronk gave it to them in a very team-friendly contract.

Click to expand...

Also, it's often its because they are offered exorbitant (and usually stupid for the team long term). Pats give good market value, just not past that line.

betterthanthealternative said:

That's not a fair reflection of what's being said here. The issue is what will happen if he continues to perform as he has, and continues to improve it.

Click to expand...

Maybe we'll win another Super Bowl?

I don't mean it in a bad way, but we are spoiled compared to other teams if we worry after two games that a guy drafted in the fifth round who hasn't played in two years is playing too well.

Perspective.

We want players to play well and players who blossom because they got a shot by the best organization in football, tend to look fondly on that situation. If he really loves playing here and BB really likes him and thinks he's unique and special there is a price they can agree on.

BB's an economics major. There's a reason the Mona Lisa might be worth a billion dollars if for sale, despite the fact there are zillions of interesting paintings.

That's actually what Parcells mean by JAG, it's not a derogatory term. It just means replaceable by a similar guy.

Pats are very skilled at keeping players they want in their prime and dropping those they deem less crucial to their success because they're past their prime or less valuable than someone else they needed to sign.

pdangle said:

Also, it's often its because they are offered exorbitant (and usually stupid for the team long term). Pats give good market value, just not past that line.

Click to expand...

That's a good point. I'm sure they would have liked to keep Revis, as he is professional and a top talent on the field. combine being a meathead off it and a huge guaranteed contract and they'll find a way to do without him.

Didn't want to be here "heart and soul". is a big factor too, though I'm guessing Seymour wasn't that attached. He was just irreplaceable in his prime, so they went after him.

I'm seeing a budding bromance between Dion and the Pats and there's always a price in that case. Like everyone, you need to manipulate terms or sacrifice elsewhere if you really want something.

pdangle said:

Also, it's often its because they are offered exorbitant (and usually stupid for the team long term). Pats give good market value, just not past that line.

Click to expand...

If other teams are almost always offering more, then we are NOT offering good market value. We are offering what the patriots are willing to offer, period.

BTW, I am NOT criticizing our approach. After all, in the end, almost all of the top teams come close to spending all their cap money (with a little rolled over to the next year). It is a matter of how to allocate and manage the cap.

It will be interesting to see what type of contract Lewis gets offered. We wouldn't go to 4m for Vereen or the 3m that Woody got.

Probably one of those situations where Lewis can make more on the open market so he'll have to love the team to stay.

I wonder if the pats will try and extend him if he keeps playing well

rookBoston said:

BB will have a number in mind, for the value he perceives from Lewis. If that number is mutually agreeable, Lewis will sign and we'll have a guy for a few years.

But RB is certainly the position where BB feels he can find productive players in the draft or in free agency. Not since Corey Dillon has he really gone out of his way to bring in a premium back, and remember Corey was coming off the trash heap.

And that was a different era, back when you could actually get physical with a wide receiver. In the new passing league, the power RB position is diminished, and there are quick twitch running backs with good hands walking the streets... guys like Dion Lewis, in fact.

As mentioned, Cadet and White are on the roster, too, and BB went out of his way to keep them both. So, there's probably a plan within a plan here.

Click to expand...

He always hedges his bets, but it's not always believable. Marquise Hill was no Seymour and Ron Brace was no Wilfork. It really depends on how special BB thinks Lewis is and how much Lewis wants to play here. If both = true, there is an equilibrium deal.

borg said:

Besides Brady, who exactly has been agreeing to team friendly $$$? Maybe Vollmer and Ninkovich.
McCourty leveraged FA offers to secure his huge contract.
Gronk was given the biggest TE contract ever.
Gostkowski is the highest paid kicker
During the BB era....players like......Mankins, Wilfork, Seymour, Branch, Vinatieri, Samuels, Welker all were willing to battle the NE front office to get paid.
There's $4.5 billion in available NFL salary every year and for 99.9% of all players, this is their one and only time to set up the rest of their lives. This notion of "team friendly" is more fallacy than fact.

Click to expand...

Reread your own post. You don't think Gronk could break the bank elsewhere? Most intelligent players don't trade a happy career playing at a high level on a championship team for a living hell of losing every year with a bunch of unmotivated neurotic loser team mates. they talk with players who have done so.

Outstanding organizations need to be competitive, but not over the top for the best, most intelligent players, and who wants the other kind anyway?