How is BB as a Personnel Guy?

It is a slow night, let’s stimulate some conversation!

How do you think BB is as a personnel guy? What are his strengths and weaknesses, his good moves and his bad ones? Please describe and explain your position. You can focus on whatever time interval or period that you want.

Contrary to popular belief, he is excellent. The "science" of picking/ signing players is inexact and difficult. BB has hit on a vast majority of first rounders. He's taken chances in the second round, with mixed results (Gronk great/Ras-I bad). In the late rounds, he's been great, picking up guys like Koppen, Gost, Edelman...

His pick ups in 2014 were instrumental to winning (LaFell, Ayers).

But the best part of his personnel decisions: he seems to know when to walk away from a player. It's tough to go ahead without guys you won with.

Heard he was super stinky. Got all my info on Pats Fans.

zydecochris said:

It is a slow night, let’s stimulate some conversation!

How do you think BB is as a personnel guy? What are his strengths and weaknesses, his good moves and his bad ones? Please describe and explain your position. You can focus on whatever time interval or period that you want.

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It's simple. He has among the lowest, or no 1st round picks. Yet he manages to destroy the league on average wins and playoffs.

Where would redrafts of Gronk and Collins land? Where his risks fail, he plugs in.

For my part only I’m going to focus on the last two off-seasons (others can use whatever period they want) even though it takes a while for some players to pan out ( just look at Rob Nincovich), giving my “take” on the situation in “2014” (i.e., prior to the 2014 draft), what moves have been taken, and what the results have been so far:

QB: 2014: Greatest of all Time (GOAT) Tom Brady was age 36, back up Mallett.
Moves: Drafted Garoppolo in second round, traded Mallett away for negligible.
Status: A strength: Tom Brady still the best at 38, Garoppolo looks like a future starter somewhere.

RB: 2014: Good depth with Ridley, Vareen, Blount, Bolden.
Moves: Let Ridley and Vareen go, brought in Dion Lewis.
Status: To Be Determined (TBD). Lewis has looked good, but depth in case of injury (or suspension) a big concern.

WR: 2014: Edelman, Amendola, Dobson.
Moves: Brought in Lafell.
Status: TBD. Lafell a keeper, Dobson may be finally emerging, no other changes.

TE: 2014: Gronk, Hoo-man.
Moves: Brought in Chandler and M. Williams.
Status: A strength. Gronk=Gronk. Chandler decent. Williams great blocking TE with good hands.

OT: 2014: Soldier, Vollmer, Cannon
Moves: resigned Vollmer and Cannon
Status: A strength, a good set of OT’s.

Interior OL: 2014: Mankins, Connolly at G, Wendell at C, Kline at backup
Moves: Mankins gone, brought in Stork, Andrews, Mason, Jackson.
Status: Promising. So far seems like an impressive transformation from a weakness to a strength.

Interior DL: 2014: Wilfork, Kelly, Siliga
Moves: released Wilfork & Kelly, drafted Easley & Brown in 1st round
Status: TBD, but Siliga has emerged and Easley has flashed.

DE: 2014: Jones, Nincovich
Moves: Signed Sheard, drafted Grissom, Flowers
Status: Very promising, an emerging strength of the team.

LB: 2014: Mayo, Spikes, Collins, Hightower
Moves: Released Spikes.
Status: A strength of the team given the emergence of Hightower and Collins.

Safety: 2014: McCourty, Gregory, Harmon
Moves: signed Chung, drafted Richards
Status: A strength, Chung played well last year, Harmon has improved, McCourty among the best.

Cornerback: 2014: Talib, Dennard, Arrington
Moves: In 2014: Revis and Browner rental, Talib gone, brought in some U. West AL. (who??) guy
named Butler. In 2015 brought in Brown and Fletcher.
Status: TBD (particularly regarding depth), except M. Butler looks like an emerging star and
Brown has looked mostly OK.

15 years of picking at the bottom of the draft and staying competitive. I've got to say that he's pretty good. When you look at the Patriots misses, you need to compare that to other teams. Sometimes you hit, sometimes you don't.

I think and underrated aspect of his personnel decision is keeping this team out of the dreaded 'cap hell'. With amount of talent this team has, it would be easy to get too enamoured with players and get into some nasty contracts.

Bill seems to know when to part ways at just the right time.... And even more important, usually finds a way to replace said player with a cheaper option.

I would have asked the question differently. Maybe " How is Belichick at developing talent?". As noted above, he picks lower tha any other talent evaluator in the league so it's not a fair comparison to start with and I would argue the players he picks would not be as successful in other systems.

BB the GM has never put the Pats in cap jail and pretty much always hit on his #1 picks.

He also did a great job on low round picks.

Going by record, titles and AV he is the GoAT GM in NFL history.

The only question is....did BB the coach cover for BB the GM's screw ups?

Did BB the GM- who picked a GoAT QB cover for BB the HC?

Can't really seperate the two.

interesting topic, given that it's Thursday night and I am watching the Giants on Thursday Night Football. They have Vareen at running back and Fells at tight end. Both are guys that Bill let walk away. Seems you can't fault him, they are good players but not spectacular.

He sucks. We have several posters here that could GM circles around BB.

Bill Lee said:

interesting topic, given that it's Thursday night and I am watching the Giants on Thursday Night Football. They have Vareen at running back and Fells at tight end. Both are guys that Bill let walk away. Seems you can't fault him, they are good players but not spectacular.

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And Meriweather, and I think Casillas.

RayClay said:

It's simple. He has among the lowest, or no 1st round picks. Yet he manages to destroy the league on average wins and playoffs.

Where would redrafts of Gronk and Collins land? Where his risks fail, he plugs in.

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I think ultimately Belichick knows that while he's seeking guys who fit into an overall role oriented football scheme, it's a crap shoot be it the draft or free agency

For every failed 1st or 2nd rounders it wouldn't surprise me if we could find an equal number of Undrafted Free Agents

All that matters is that Belichick populate the team with the players who best play HIS brand of football, in terms of style and philosophy of players

Indeed one could assert that even though failed 1st rounders cost money, the UFAs or lower round picks (Welker, Edelman for example) will cost less for longer than even eating a portion of a failed top pick's salary (in terms of failed free agents - well those can be costly and I think Belichick has learned from being burned there too).

We're still seeing the evolution of a coach - he's STILL finding new ways to outsmart other coaches, players and teams.

And one thing I've also noticed in this copy cat league is that when Belichick employs a defensive scheme using the more ample resource of players available (switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 for example) as more teams copy, the pool of players shrinks - and Belichick is prone to alter his scheme from year to year (for example, effectively only employing an expensive Revis lead backfield last season, redistributing those dollars that would have gone to Revis elsewhere to afford quality depth - which ALWAYS comes in handy

It's a simple question posed by the OP but it's a very complex answer

Bill Lee said:

interesting topic, given that it's Thursday night and I am watching the Giants on Thursday Night Football. They have Vareen at running back and Fells at tight end. Both are guys that Bill let walk away. Seems you can't fault him, they are good players but not spectacular.

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Think of letting Vereen go this way. You traded Vereen for a bunch of low cost RBs who fought it out in training camp, including Dion Lewis who right now looks to be a roughly equivalent player. You had money left over to spend on other FAs, like Jabal Sheard. According to PatsPulpit the Vereen signing resulted in the Pats getting a 6th round compensatory pick. So in effect, Vereen for Dion Lewis, a 6th round pick, and cap space.

robertweathers said:

BB the GM has never put the Pats in cap jail and pretty much always hit on his #1 picks.

He also did a great job on low round picks.

Going by record, titles and AV he is the GoAT GM in NFL history.

The only question is....did BB the coach cover for BB the GM's screw ups?

Did BB the GM- who picked a GoAT QB cover for BB the HC?

Can't really seperate the two.

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Actually, as horrible as 2008 was when Brady went down, it did provide a season's worth of evidence that BB the GM and BB the HC worked well together, even without the GOAT QB.

The QB who led us to that surprising 11-win season was drafted in the 7th round after not starting in college. We're even scouting back-up college QBs. And while BB the GM spent a 3rd on O'Connell, BB the HC gave the job to the guy who deserved it, even if he was a 7th-round college backup.

That team was led by Welker and Moss on offense, two steals via trade (we're talking personnel skills, not just drafting luck).

That 2008 draft may also have been a typical BB draft, two captains and Pro Bowlers in Mayo and Slater, nailed the 1st round pick, a gamble on talent that fell due to injuries (Wheatley), a pick we hoped we would never use (3rd-round QB Kevin O'Connell), some guys who got outperformed by later picks like Wheatley and Crable, and UDFAs playing major roles like Guyton and Lawfirm.

The D was about to be re-built with Mayo the first block, while this would be the last season in New England for Bruschi, Vrabel, Rodney, and Seymour. We pulled Seau out of retirement for a few games. And holy ****, were there a lot of JAGs on that team. Pierre Woods? Mike Wright? Lewis Sanders even started a few games???

Yet by the end of the year, that team finished in the top 10 in yards and points on offense and defense.

It wasn't all perfect obviously. Deltha O'Neal was involved. Adalius was still contributing, but would never become what he should have. I still have nightmares of trying to watch Hobbs. But that was a pretty solid team despite missing the GOAT QB.

We can debate how much credit goes to BB the GM vs. BB the HC, but considering how the Colts crumbled without Manning and the Packers without Rodgers in 2013 (2-5-1 until Rodgers came back), that 11-5 season without Brady is absolutely remarkable.

Bill Lee said:

interesting topic, given that it's Thursday night and I am watching the Giants on Thursday Night Football. They have Vareen at running back and Fells at tight end. Both are guys that Bill let walk away. Seems you can't fault him, they are good players but not spectacular.

Click to expand...

Did you know Vereen has the 9th-largest contract for a RB right now? It speaks to how far the value of the position has dropped, but also how ridiculous the contract given to him was.

Vereen is a good player, but price matters. Sure, we could have offered him more. But it would have cost us elsewhere. Maybe we don't get Sheard or have to trade Solder or can't sign McCourty. Maybe we struggle to re-sign Jones or Hightower or Collins down the road.

Brady is the most valuable player on the team. Doesn't mean we can afford to give him unlimited money. So it's sad to see Vereen go, but at that price, you'd be a fool to sign him.

As for Fells, the guy caught 4 ****ing passes in NE. Give me a break. He had 16 catches last season for the Giants and was healthy, starting 9 games and playing in all 16. Let's not pour one out over him because he caught 3 passes for 27 yards last night. We're not going to die from that loss of production.

convertedpatsfan said:

Actually, as horrible as 2008 was when Brady went down, it did provide a season's worth of evidence that BB the GM and BB the HC worked well together, even without the GOAT QB.

The QB who led us to that surprising 11-win season was drafted in the 7th round after not starting in college. We're even scouting back-up college QBs. And while BB the GM spent a 3rd on O'Connell, BB the HC gave the job to the guy who deserved it, even if he was a 7th-round college backup.

That team was led by Welker and Moss on offense, two steals via trade (we're talking personnel skills, not just drafting luck).

That 2008 draft may also have been a typical BB draft, two captains and Pro Bowlers in Mayo and Slater, nailed the 1st round pick, a gamble on talent that fell due to injuries (Wheatley), a pick we hoped we would never use (3rd-round QB Kevin O'Connell), some guys who got outperformed by later picks like Wheatley and Crable, and UDFAs playing major roles like Guyton and Lawfirm.

The D was about to be re-built with Mayo the first block, while this would be the last season in New England for Bruschi, Vrabel, Rodney, and Seymour. We pulled Seau out of retirement for a few games. And holy ****, were there a lot of JAGs on that team. Pierre Woods? Mike Wright? Lewis Sanders even started a few games???

Yet by the end of the year, that team finished in the top 10 in yards and points on offense and defense.

It wasn't all perfect obviously. Deltha O'Neal was involved. Adalius was still contributing, but would never become what he should have. I still have nightmares of trying to watch Hobbs. But that was a pretty solid team despite missing the GOAT QB.

We can debate how much credit goes to BB the GM vs. BB the HC, but considering how the Colts crumbled without Manning and the Packers without Rodgers in 2013 (2-5-1 until Rodgers came back), that 11-5 season without Brady is absolutely remarkable.

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Yep. Even though their schedule was a cupcake, 11-5 is 11-5.

robertweathers said:

Yep. Even though their schedule was a cupcake, 11-5 is 11-5.

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And what was truly remarkable was that Cassel had never started a game in college. His last start, prior to taking over for Brady, was in high school!

Some scattered thoughts:

• He's built excellent teams while having late picks and in one case having a pick taken away.
• Of course, much of that is Brady -- being able to still get him late in the 6th round was luck.
• It's a lot easier to compare the star end of the roster to other teams', because we know about other teams' stars more than we do their JAG and JAG+ types.
• He's picked two guys who are in the GOAT discussion for their respective positions. That's pretty good. Ozzie Newsome can match the claim. No one else recent is jumping to mind who can, although if we go back far enough the Chiefs had Tony Gonzalez, Derrick Thomas, and Will Shields.
  
• His track record for getting perennial Pro Bowler kinds of stars is OK; he just cuts them loose. Besides Brady and Gronk, there were Mankins, Seymour, Wilfork, Welker (as many selections as Wilfork!) and, ummm, the Revis rental. Well ...
• ... also STs -- Slater, with honorable mention for Gost (I think ascending to that status now) and Izzo.

Think about this for how good he is.

He had just signed a 100 million dollar qb (Bledsoe) and had to foresight to keep a 6th round (comp pick) qb on the active roster as the 4th string qb because he didn't want to lose him if he put him on the practice squad. If that doesn't tell you something about how good he is, then I guess the last 15 years have been luck. Does he miss,? Yup, he does. Does everyone? Yup, without exception. Most teams would have cut Brady without giving him a real look in camp.